Wandisco Share Discussion Threads

[tickboo] 10/10/2017 12:39

Looks ready to higher ahead of the quarterly update. 12 month high coming up.

[nimbo1] 09/10/2017 10:04

yes v pleased that £8 level held. Some decent consolidation going on and looking forward to the CMD update.

[tickboo] 09/10/2017 08:45

WAND seems primed to make further headway in this ballooning market, the partnerships are already impressive and hopefully the trading update next week will be a good one. With the capital markets day a week tomorrow a positive update will be very timely.

[hazl] 09/10/2017 08:30

good start to the week....

[owenski] 06/10/2017 20:28

Talking primarily about hacking issues, but does give an insight into the ballooning amount of data being generated and that's just for autos, most of this is cloud based and where the fusion product is aimed at.

I do think WAND is still in the foothills of this potential market. IMO

[tickboo] 05/10/2017 11:26

Good to see it's gone 3v1, a move north soon I hope. 8 working days to the capital markets day and I expect a trading update beforehand so Monday 16th maybe. Hopefully some good news ahead of the day.

[tickboo] 03/10/2017 18:25

As of 30 June it says Schroeders had 6.15% so not sure why the RNS said 9.4% to below 5%. ShareholdersThe ordinary share capital of WANdisco plc is listed on AIM, a market operated by The London Stock Exchange plc. The shares are listed under the trading ticker WAND. The ISIN number is JE00B6Y3DV84.Number of AIM securities in issue: see latest Total Voting Rights Announcement in Regulatory News.There are no treasury shares.As far as the Company is aware, the percentage of AIM securities not in public hands is 44.75% Significant shareholders.At 30 June 2017, significant holdings of the Company's issued share capital were as follows:SHAREHOLDER % HOLDINGWANdisco Directors 24.68%Oppenheimer 14.01%T Rowe Price 6.75%Schroeder 6.15%Jon D Gruber and Linda W Gruber 4.31%Ross Creek Capital 3.82%

[knighttokingprawn] 03/10/2017 18:03

From 10pct to below 5 pct. from memory the fund manager that ran the Schroeder small cap left to set up a boutique of his own.. this was announced last year.. wonder also what impact rumours of us listing is having on U.K. Based mandates?

[owenski] 03/10/2017 17:33

Someone else is picking that up then.

[djbilywiz] 03/10/2017 17:00

RNS - Schroders substantially reducing.

[hazl] 02/10/2017 13:39

I can imagine this at a much higher price eventually because we have a 'unique offering' as implied by recent interest from the 'big boys' Amazon and Google.

Nothing is certain in this life but it is a very interesting company.

[knighttokingprawn] 02/10/2017 12:40

Momentum investing is a funny old game. I am bull, but suggest i wouldnt touch this if it traded to £4 as some say they are waiting for... the game has changed on this .. i can imagine a world with low 6 on the stock , but if we are at 4 we are probably unravelling because something has happend that is currently not in the script.."value" is an overworn term , and meaningless in any early stage company.. was this company value at £1.5 ? Not really unless you were an insider , no earnings then either ... dont play here looking for a value entry point.. and if £4 is your target the world will be selling there I suggest.... momo is a terrible mistress!

[djbilywiz] 02/10/2017 12:15

Thanks for posting that report tickaboo. Some interesting target prices.

[tickboo] 02/10/2017 11:29

Wh Ireland's note is some 32 pages so a little below. WANdisco divides opinion: to its fans, it is a unique business addressing the problem of real-time data replication at a global/petabyte scale that only it can solve and as such is almost priceless; to its detractors, it's the classic Emperor's New Clothes, a business built on hype that is destined to disappoint. A string of material contract wins in the US this year has, in our view, tipped the balance firmly in favour of the former and, as a result, the shares have been one of the best performers in the sector (+244% YTD). Difficult to value by conventional techniques, WAND is a true momentum stock. Key to continued share price appreciation is further contract wins and forecast upgrades through, what is proving to be, a highly effective and established channel strategy. Our blended DCF-based valuation model suggests fair value for the stock of 950p hence we initiate with a BUY recommendation.In a nutshell WANdisco has developed IP that enables data to be simultaneously replicated and changed in real time, and at scale (peta/ exabytes) across a wide area network. In this regard, we believe it to be unique. The solution lends itself to global enterprise, where large scale data migration or continuous data replication across storage platforms/ infrastructures is required, with cloud storage (moving data in and out) a key underlying driver – think Amazon Web Services (AWS) which has witnessed a 58% CAGR in revenue over 3 years. Adoption of cloud or hybrid cloud storage by large-scale organisations is now mainstream, with data increasingly seen as mission critical, with respect to commerciality, and part of the fabric or DNA of an organisation.Where is the business at? WANdisco has built a highly impressive partner and client list; Cash burn has been substantially reduced (H1 2017 outflow of $0.6m versus $5.3m last year); the business is motoring ahead (H1 rev +71% y-o-y) and the contract pipeline is robust. In April, WANdisco signed a $4m contract with an un-named North American financial institution and this was followed up smartly in June by a further $2m contract with a US-based global retailer. In our view, there are many more contracts of this scale in the hopper. The contracts are beginning to evidence the effectiveness of the partner ecosystem which is key to building momentum beyond our conservatively set estimates. To aid understanding of what an upgrade cycle might look like, our note contains a modelled upside scenario on page 22.How should investors value WANdisco? We are naturally wary of using new paradigm terminology yet the business is difficult to value on any peer group derived valuation. These are still early days so any DCF valuation is highly sensitive to some very subjective assumptions with high error bars. Nonetheless, using a blended DCF (attempting to capture near-term upgrade potential and the anticipated long-term market opportunity), we arrive at a 12-month valuation of 950p, potentially much higher if WANdisco can continue the momentum of client wins into H2. A report produced by Cisco references a total addressable market for big data and cloud spend of $10bn by 2020, representing a CAGR of 35% (Fig 4). Although this rate of growth might, ordinarily, be treated with some scepticism, revenue, for example, at Amazon's Web Services division has grown at a compound rate of 58% (to $12bn in 2016) over the last three years (Fig 5). Coupled with industry reports from IDC and Gartner, multi-national companies have now begun to embrace the cloud, and as such, the patented real-time data replication tools offered with WANdisco Fusion find themselves in a unique market position as large enterprises struggle with a dual problem of a ballooning data storage and processing requirement and the now critical and central nature of data within an organisation.Routes to market – established, evidenced and critical to scalable successWANdisco has made substantial progress utilising a combination of direct, channel and OEM relationships (all non-exclusive and with tier 1 vendors) including no less than IBM. With key strategic names on the call sheet, but with some infilling and channel strengthening work to do, early indications are of a 'go to market' strategy that can deliver new customers in volume.Deals flow and customer base vindicates the core technologyIn a relatively short period, IBM has delivered two multi-million dollar contracts with Fortune 500 companies, and both are expected to grow further in size (initial contracts for a small subset of data). This follows similar deals announced with Oracle and through Amazon. It's also important to understand that Fusion's big data and cloud replication tools are not restricted to one vertical market, having been sold so far into global automotive, banking, retail and healthcare clients. Our research has also encapsulated other data replication infrastructure solution providers, and evidence suggests that all are benefiting from a structural shift that is taking place in how data is captured, stored and analysed. However, WANdisco believe that Fusion is the only product that will address the needs of global enterprise where large scale, high volume and simultaneous data replication across multiple data points (nodes) is demanded, and the global resilience of such an architecture is required.Valuation – 2018 is likely to see the commencement of a meaningful upgrade cycleWANdisco's shares, in our view, have already priced in at least one upgrade over and above the $1m or so signalled at September's interim results. For some, that might be a little premature, and set against our (prudently set) estimates, makes the shares look very expensive on traditional metrics (FY2017E: 24x EV/sales).Whilst it is appropriate to consider the status quo, we believe it is also informative to consider a valuation set against an upgrade scenario (Figs 44 and 49). In our view, given the increasing evidence of 'right product, right time, right channel', and set against the evidence of other specialist infrastructure and data integration providers serving the cloud market, WANdisco looks increasingly able to deliver enhanced growth, particularly by 2019/20, where traction with partners should truly manifest.We have run two DCF models, one off our published estimates (FV: 665p), and a second off WHI's upside scenario (FV: 1235p). Given our increasing confidence that risk is towards upside, the first evidence of which is likely to be 2018E, we place an equal weighting between the two outcomes and derive a (12 month) 950p target price. What does WANdisco do?WANdisco stands for Wide Area Network Distributed Computing.In 2005, WANdisco developed and launched a proprietary and patented technology that sits at the heart of its commercial product (now branded WANdisco Fusion) called the Distributed Coordinated Engine (DConE).DConE changes the way servers and local area networks (LANs) interact over a wide area network (WAN). Essentially, the engine enables geographically distributed servers and storage networks to stay in a continuously synchronised live state (aka active data replication), with LAN-speed performance over a WAN, while maintaining one-copy equivalence of the data across a distributed system (i.e. all locations hold identical data sets). The distributed nature ensures that there can be no single point of failure, and removes scalability bottlenecks. Further, DConE was designed to be independent of the underlying application thus can ultimately be used as the foundation for the distribution of any application or database.The technology therefore allows large or multinational entities to real time replicate continuously changing data, to multiple cloud and/or on-premises data centres, with guaranteed consistency, and without downtime and the resultant business disruption often associated with batch based replication technologies.WANdisco's Fusion was released in 2015. It represented the culmination of over a decade of software development (which continues with significant R&D commitment), following the launch of the DConE into the niche market of version control (for SCM vendors) in 2005, and subsequent expansion into the Hadoop market in 2012.Fusion, as illustrated in Figure 1, now serves the company's two markets of Source Code Management (direct sales) and the much bigger opportunity of Big Data and Cloud storage and replication (direct/ channel/ OEM). The Fusion product is also behind WANdisco's first non-exclusive OEM agreement with IBM, badged IBM Replicate.

[kemche] 02/10/2017 10:52

knight, nothing wrong in that at all. Nice to know that rural areas have slow connectivity. It has certainly added to my knowledge base.

ps: I am a bear because I want to buy.

[hazl] 02/10/2017 10:37

Good post owenski.

[knighttokingprawn] 02/10/2017 10:32

The connectivity and band width issue. Guys obviously you need bandwidth and connectivity where data can fly from behind the firewall to the cloud and around the cloud. That is an obvious fact. The question is to why degree does that negate wand opportunity. The reality is that the target market is the Fortune 500. In extremis we see a use case where it couples with AWS snowmobile. A use case where the data is actually fork lifted from one data centre to another and fusions is used to "fill in" "update" the resulting downtime on the db. So we are all right, it's a bit silly taking pot shots at one another .. any contribution that truly adds to keeping your capital safe should be welcomed.. I see no agenda from the bears other than to express a contrary opinion. What's wrong with that?

[owenski] 01/10/2017 16:08

For feeling comfortable about current and to be hoped for future valuations, it's worth a review of the latest results webcast - The most recent Cannacord Growth Conference audio presentation is a rehash of the results webast but does contain a useful Q&A session towards the end.

At approx 10mins 40secs in, one can look at a slide featuring bar graph and attendant discourse dealing with WAND's addressable market and the projected CAGR. The presentation also deals with what is driving the market and not to be forgotten, the triple digit growth rate in WAND's revenues. An appreciation of the projected market growth using WAND's admittedly ultra conservative 10% penetration still illustrates a multi billion dollar growth market.

If - likely - WAND, via its superb blue chip partner resale network, continue to achieve triple digit - or close to - growth rates, then one can reason a forward looking market will be likely to price this above a current £300m M.cap.

Just my opinion on prospects, not trying to teach anyone here to suck eggs as I know a lot of you know the company far better than me, but sometimes it's good to spell out ones investment reasons.

[hazl] 01/10/2017 14:47

Doing very nicely thank you.

[melton john] 01/10/2017 14:04

Where have I ever said it's not fit for purpose? I have doubted some fanciful claims, and said that with network infrastructure as it is at present it isn't appropriate to every company. To me at this stage that implies a lower value than say £30 which was recently quoted, even £8 is a stretch IMHO. If you don't understand my reasoning, what are you doing in a technology share?

[hazl] 01/10/2017 13:36

Why do you still want to buy in then,as you claim (albeit at a lower price) if you don't think it's fit for purpose?

Personally I think I would be more inclined to take notice of Amazon and Google's actions than your concerns!
Funny that.

[melton john] 01/10/2017 12:21

"Wandisco Fusion does require high speed date connection, that is how the data is transferred."

We agree on that Owenski, at last we can put that to bed.

The discussion arose some time back whether every business in every town with a server could use Wandisco Fusion for backing up and it was stated that: "In answer to your second question Fusion does not rely on, or need local networks or fibre end-to-end in order to operate correctly." Which in the case of a hybrid cloud or a distributed cluster with a large quantity of data to transfer is patently nonsense.

The clip above is from Wandisco's implementation document and is one of the qualification checks in the sales process, no good selling the software with guaranteed consistency and then deciding to dig up the road to the data cantre to install fibre. Could be costly.

I still can't hear your comments kemche, still filtered. If you don't like my thoughts filter me.

[kemche] 01/10/2017 10:52

You mean they are not selling their solutions to farmers? You learn something new every day!