Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[broadgreen] 19/7/2019 11:41

There ought to be a requirement for the losing party (GSK) to pay the initial damages into an escrow account up front if they should choose to appeal. There would then be additional downside for them in stringing the case out for a further couple of years potentially, over and above the possibility of higher damages should they lose the appeal. GSK is well able to absorb the financial risks of prolonging this case. On the other hand VEC, while not exactly a minnow at GSK's mercy, faces long-running uncertainty while this drags on, affecting the share price, corporate strategy, value of some of its IP etc. Probably wishful thinking on my part but I wonder if there is some mechanism in US law that protects the interests of the smaller party in a case like this.

[alexchry] 19/7/2019 10:56

I would like the GSK case to be over and for VEC to receive a big chunk of money but my main concern is lack of new money making treatments. In the three years since the takeover there has been little or no money making developments. Polaris may well be right that the Hikma deal may lead to riches in the future but hard to see how the board have justified their salaries in the last three years.

[best1467] 19/7/2019 10:30

Surely there as to be a time frame as to when a final settlement figure is reached its a complete farce otherwise.
If GSK then appeal which is likely it could be 2021 before a payment is made that's if the appeal fails it's ever likely the share price is drifting to the regular comatosed norm

[polaris] 18/7/2019 21:18

no idea. How long is a piece of string?

I regularly check here:


regards,

Paul

[frazboy] 18/7/2019 20:50

Paul,

“The $89.7m was just a part judgement. The case will only be finalised when the judge has ruled on punitive damages, on-going royalties and who pays the legal fees. The final docket will then be listed on the district of Delaware US Federal Court site. At that point GSK can lodge an appeal, as covered by the post from popperjoe. It's not clear how long that will take. I do not expect any comment from GSK until the final docket is released.”

Do we have a clue as to when that docket will be listed? 1 week, 1 month, 1 year or longer...?

Much obliged for your previous clarification.

Fraz

[justiceforthemany] 17/7/2019 18:12

Sold off into the close again.
Someone wants to keep the share price down.

[fhmktg] 17/7/2019 17:51

Louise Makin from BTG will be free from August....she could shake things up!

[base7] 17/7/2019 14:02

I agree guys but with view to Vec being a serial underperformer since my SKP shares were acquired I am interested in seeing the strategy of our new CEO ,when eventually appointed .A CEO with a strong track record of building growth companies would be viewed as a positive -especially as we could have £200mill in the bank .Not sure who has the authority to sanction a £50 mill buy back when our Board currently consists of a CFO (currently interim CEO) & nom exec Chairman.Perhaps a takeover for a ‘fair’price will be the best outcome for all stakeholders

[pooroldboy55] 17/7/2019 10:59

Hi PAUL
Go along with what your saying timeline is the thing and we just don't know ,as you know i got here via SKP and have done very well selling 3/4 of my holding a about 150p av .keep thinking will sell the remainder as this is my only share not paying a div.i do like the chase so will hold if drops below 80p will poss top up .
cheers to all
Andrew (POB)

[polaris] 17/7/2019 10:24

Looking at the announcement today and the value of the return we are looking at a buyback and cancellation of up to 10% of the current issued share capital, around 61M shares from 666.3M. That would also lead to an uplift in EPS for the EBITDA of around 10% I will be very interested in the H1 results, primarily for the progress on the new platforms, ellipta generic, flutiform progress, other generics launches/development and growth of the cash pile. With the flag that R&D spend will now gradually fall off towards the £30-35M mark cf. £55M in FY2018 and the confirmation of a mvoe towards more development services rather than milestone loaded agreements, i see VEC as likely to become a strong cash generator, albeit with rather low overall sales. With costs kept under strict control going forward, then VEC will become a nice little bolt on company for a larger generics company. While it is still a stretch, there is now at least some forward case for a move back towards the valuation post merger, so towards the £1Bn level. It does require a lot of favourable outcomes on current developments but, with each passing month, VEC is becoming a cleaner, leaner company with a distinct focus and plan.

[polaris] 17/7/2019 10:09

Andrew - if we go red then i'll be a buyer of march 2020 SBs in the last hour of the day.

@saget - i can only say take a look at the accounts and where the combined VEC/SKP entity lies now cf. your reasons for investing back in the early days. That will be hard as things are very different now than 20 years ago. What is your need for capital return/appreciation? what timescale? how big is the holding? If you sell out what is the plan for re-investment if you are not going to just move to cash? There are many things to think about. In the end, you are the only one who can make that decision. A BB can give background information and some discussion but is not a qualified forum to give investment advice. If you need that then seek out a FCA approved provider, not that they necessarily will have a better track record. They are 'qualified' to give advice.

[pooroldboy55] 17/7/2019 08:58

Could well see us in red at end of day think most of this as already been taken into account,as fraz says only good news Fluti doing ok still everything else is a long way off.

[frazboy] 17/7/2019 08:52

Maybe a slightly disappointing reaction to the update. But, we knew, or strongly suspected, capital would be returned and there's still little specific detail on timing, other than later in the year, which would have been a reasonable estimate anyway. 'Special' payments will also be made, which accounts for the pending Glaxo case, etc.In short, there was good news on Flutiform trading and not a lot else. As others have pointed out, not too much downside from here, unless litigation goes the wrong way.

[fhmktg] 17/7/2019 08:15

Good luck for a bid at these prices- I need a 100% uplift to recover my losses and I believe that with the court case settled, partnering of the current trial candidates and early results from the Ellipta candidates, this is possible.Two years needed though.

[wigwammer] 17/7/2019 08:13

Saget - take a look at the last annual report and accounts. It contains a lot of information about what vectura does and where it plans to go, which will help you make your mind up. It will also help you put into context the things that are discussed here. Valuation wise - difficult to argue there is a lot of hype built into the current share price which is usually a good thing :)

[polaris] 17/7/2019 08:08

First capital return. Details to follow in H1 results. Wonder what the tender price will be and how many take up the offer? Will we finally see the back of HBM?? I think this will help provide a base price. Trading is ahead of H1 internal expectations for flutiform and board reaffirm FY targets. More good news to allow share price progression. Just the litigation result to come in the US and the appeal in the UK. After this I'd expect a bid from someone who can leverage the cash position to other things. VEC remains cheap going forward for those of us with average buy prices in the 70s. Regards,Paul

[davr0s] 17/7/2019 07:30

I'm a holder but a word of advice would be not to go to a bulletin board for this kind of information. Yes you will get some good people but it will be swamped by a lot of misinformation, bias, ramping, de ramping etc

[saget] 17/7/2019 07:26

Hi, An anyone help me out please?I bought these shares when I was at uni in 1999. They were called ML Labs back then. Obviously, 20 years later, I'm down a lot of money but I'm just wondering what this company is like now. Should I stay invested or is this company going nowhere? Any opinions gratefully received. Thanks so much!

[jimboyce] 17/7/2019 07:11

So tender offers are the way forward.

[davr0s] 16/7/2019 17:01

3% isn't a collapse

[justiceforthemany] 16/7/2019 16:56

Sudden collapse into the close on pitiful volume smacks of another shorting attack even though now showing as <0.5%

[pooroldboy55] 16/7/2019 16:14

Nobody seems to love us today.Price worked up yesterday to be pushed down again but even with a million shares traded still very small numbers.

[polaris] 16/7/2019 16:05

Rollovers IMO. There were also 2 trades of 100K around the same time at matched price.

[justiceforthemany] 16/7/2019 14:22

Two large trades of 285K. Hard to tell whether buy/sell. Could be delayed trades also.