Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 10/9/2019 12:23

Expected this to be up 10% today on the 7.5% special dividend in October and imminent GSK news....

[dave129] 10/9/2019 12:12

6p special div just announced

[alexchry] 10/9/2019 11:37

Popper Joe-I think my Labrador could have done as well as the board have for the past three years and he's been dead for over ten years! Even Polaris's optimistic analysis is suggesting an exit price as low as significantly over 100p which may well mean that the only reward for old SKP shareholders is a loss.As regards the results presentations, I have given up on those as they have been full of platitudes and managementspeak with questions from sycophantic analysts.

[polaris] 10/9/2019 10:21

Projecting forward from the numbers today then FY revenues will be in the region of £170M (no ellipta revenues in H2 as cap reached) and EBITDA around £35-40M, depending on the R&D spend. Cash to be £110-115 minus the return and buybacks, so £50-55M assuming everything goes through. They will still report a headline loss due to the write-downs.

This is without anything from the GSK litigation. If VEC get the full claim and costs then you are looking at another potential cash 'bolus' of up to $150M plus further royalty revenues from US based sales of certain Ellipta products through to the '991 patent expiry in late 2021. Expectation is for a ruling in September 2019...probably followed by a GSK appeal.

Shares in circulation by this time to be less than 600M. My projections suggest 590-595M depending on share price progress through buybacks. EPS from on-going business to be in region of 6p.

Near-term revenue generators are QVM149 approval and launch and something from generic Advair (possible value dependent on submission and approval timing as well as other entrants). Flutiform continues to expand ex-EU with new indications expected in Japan for pediatric side within 12 months.

Medium term. Kyorin have plans to more than double Flutiform sales over the next 3-5 years. It remains to be seen how successful they are. Progress on generic Symbicort (VR2081) and generic Ellipta portfolio to continue with added value from nebulisation and orphan drug targets. VR647 development dependent on partnering.

I am happy with progress here, i am sure others will not be. I continue to hold 200k here and looking for an exit price significantly above 100p, which assumes GSK lose and pony up the cash owed, as well as VEC receiving royalties to 2021.

I'll listen to webcast and Q&A session later this evening.

regards,

Paul

[popper joe] 10/9/2019 10:21

Talking about the Titanic, I just listened to the webcast and to be honest it sounded very much like the ship is drifting without anyone really at the helm. Paul Fry was asked a number of questions about the planned strategic direction of the company and was not able to give any convincing answers. That is not surprising really because he is only standing in as CEO. That makes it all the more odd that some very important decisions around capital allocation and company direction are being made in the absence of a proper CEO.

[pugugly] 10/9/2019 10:10

A bit like moving the deck-chairs on the Titanic - Looks like money for old rope for the lawyers and corporate financiers - PLUS a lot of CGT calcualtions for the PI's and maybe extra income tax to pay when disposal might be within current CGT allowances.- Not impressed.

[polaris] 10/9/2019 09:53

Finally a bit of volume...

[a1ord53] 10/9/2019 09:49

edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/yzhm272c

Vec update now live link

[best1467] 10/9/2019 08:56

What is clear that without Fluitigorm this company would be in its knees

[polaris] 10/9/2019 08:16

Popper joe - that's how I read it too. Rather than an open tender at a fixed price they are effectively repurchasing from all shareholders.

[alexchry] 10/9/2019 08:13

GBCol-they have been looking for a partner for quite some time so not optimistic. Recent research efforts have been failures or had significant knock backs such as Advair generic. This company is based on Flutiform as it was three years ago, no sign of things changing at the moment, the takeover has been a disaster so far for ex SKP holders like me.

[popper joe] 10/9/2019 08:12

The special dividend, coupled with the share consolidation is effectively a forced share buy-back. Neutral to share holders.

[base7] 10/9/2019 08:10

If we take the cash (rather than reinvest) our shareholdings will reduce but the hope is that our share price will increase to compensate & our share price will generally re rate .Momentum could then start to grow if our Advair generic looks likely to be launched next year ,other products are seen to be making tangible process & our CEO search reaches a satisfactory conclusion.Unfortunately Vec has only disappointed since the acquisition of my SKP shares so let us hope that a new Chapter begins as from today.

[polaris] 10/9/2019 08:08

Overall VEC plan 60M GBP of returns. This is something close to 11.5% of current market cap. At the same time the share consolidation will reduce holdings by 7.6%. Make of that what you will.

[popper joe] 10/9/2019 08:07

Also impairment charge for VR647 doesn't sound encouraging.

[polaris] 10/9/2019 08:06

That's one for the analysts to resolve in the Q&A today.

[gbcol] 10/9/2019 08:03

Any thoughts on implications of this comment on VR647? Does this imply an increased negativity on it?

VR647 programme - Whilst partnering discussions continue, given developments in the status and timing of these discussions post the balance sheet date and in consideration of the Group's R&D investment priorities announced in July 2019, the Board concluded on 9 September 2019, that it was appropriate to impair the intangible asset in full, resulting in an impairment charge in H2 2019 of £8.2m offset by the release of deferred tax liabilities of £2.2m.

[popper joe] 10/9/2019 08:03

6p special dividend but share holdings reduced by 7.6%

[polaris] 10/9/2019 07:55

All looks on the money for me. Revenues ahead of my end of July guestimate and EBITDA in line. The dividend/consolidation should at least shake things up. Update in post trial action in US expected this month too.

[justiceforthemany] 10/9/2019 07:39

So it was possible after all.
Yield 7.5%.

[justiceforthemany] 10/9/2019 07:38

6p Special Dividend.
Finally!

[best1467] 10/9/2019 07:30

Nice they finally listened giving something back

[justiceforthemany] 09/9/2019 21:38

Let us hope we will not see the now typical 5-10% drop on results day here. Will be adding if it does.

[base7] 08/9/2019 09:06

According to today’s papers GSK have a warchest of £25bill for acquisitions -so buying us for a mere £1bill would be small change to them,eliminate damages costs,possibly eliminate threat of high quality generic competition to their (our)Ellipta range ,expose them to our existing & future products -win win for all parties

[base7] 06/9/2019 23:28

I suspect that if they paid a dividend of 8p per share our share price would simply lose another 8p when Ex div & we would £50mil less in the bank.
I too prefer the option of a more adventurous CEO who can improve our rating & make bolt on acquisitions for & improve our perception in The Market .Our Board currently consists of a CFO also acting as Interim CEO & a non Exec Chairman (who has contributed little )& ineffective Non Execs .We must be ripe for an opportunist low ball bid ,particularly with view to the weak £-& I would be glad of an exit -but not prepared to sell out this cheaply.Hoping Ugly Duckling can soon morph .