Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[jimboyce] 10/5/2018 10:47

Current price values VEC excluding Skyepharma at £94m.Value of VEC before takeover of Skyepharma was £400m.So much for adding value!

[rathean] 10/5/2018 08:33

Above 80, would be great to see us test 90s again. I wonder what the BOD do on a day to day basis... no sense of expanding through acquisition so it's a slow and steady until we're bought out strategy.

[fhmktg] 08/5/2018 13:21

That's ok then!

[rathean] 08/5/2018 13:13

I see what you did there :)Just a shareholder sacrificing virgins to the nearest deity for a GSK takeover bid at 175...

[fhmktg] 08/5/2018 12:59

Best1467 can't find any reference to Rathean, who are they and what is the connection to Vectura?

[alexchry] 08/5/2018 09:57

Rathean-AGM later next week so let's hope it is very positive and stops the rot.

[rathean] 08/5/2018 09:47

Hmm I can see this drifting back to low 70s with no news.

[best1467] 06/5/2018 20:59

Tristel springs to mind higher margin for sure ,but no pacira sales have been a little sluggish but they still have Europe and rest of the world to go at plus with the label extension should excelerate sales I feel around 30/ 35 dollars is a reasonable price they have been over 100 .Its a shame Skypharma couldn’t have kept the injectables business back in the day I would have been retired by now but like others on here Vectura should come good eventually

[alexchry] 04/5/2018 11:42

I wish a few more did!

[insideryou] 03/5/2018 10:14

Bought more today... Like the risk reward here

[polaris] 01/5/2018 13:59

best1467 - i still believe that PCRX are overvalued, but that is the US market for you. They probably need $350-400M in annual sales to get reasonably above breakeven. The few %age points that no longer paying royalties to VEC will give them might be enough to ensure long term profitability but the market cap is much higher than VEC. I'd prefer the higher margin, lower overall revenues company personally.

[best1467] 01/5/2018 13:27

The Pacira extended indication only covered upper extremity not lower .Pacira shares recovered slightly on the back of that news witch was a bonus considering the panel voted 6 to 4 against approval only for fda to overrule. Pacira results out this week so interesting to see what the guidance is going forward will certainly give a clearer picture of the likely time frame for the £32 million milestone Should be good news for both and I’ve increased my holding on the back of the news in pacira .

[alexchry] 01/5/2018 08:40

polaris-agree with all you say, next 12-18 months are going to be very important for. If things go well, 80p could look very cheap but, as I've said before, I am never confident when the US and the FDA are involved and there is now the added complication of a US jury. I would add more at this level but already have well into six figures so I think I am exposed enough.

[polaris] 30/4/2018 21:16

Well that was obviously an interesting 2 weeks to be away on holiday!

Seems like someone is bringing as many rumours to market as they can and each one gets squashed in short order. The volume has been very high but few changes in major holdings.

Derodra resigning was more than likely known by certain parties well in advance and it will be interesting to see whether any fraudulent trading activities are uncovered by any investigation.

The share price is now back to where it recovered to post results. I was happy to add another 11k to my holding at this level.

All the talk has dried up and so the ramp/deramp brigade have moved on and the share price has returned to relative calm. HBM have trimmed their holding but still retain a significant holding. Funds do not just dump their largest holdings in one go and so that talk was pure BS.

My thoughts are that there are a few hedgies at play here, walking the price up and down at will with algo trading via high volume trading without really building up too large a position either way. If you can trade 10M shares for an aggregate 1p profit per share then it is a pretty sum. I've said several times that VEC is a good candidate for this as it is the right size, with the right holder mix and is mostly order book traded.

Derodra leaving means nothing going forward for me. OK, he has some options. Any half decent poach offer will buy out those options or match their value as a golden hello. I look at it this way. If an offer is coming in 2018 then what chance does Derodra have of being the CFO of the new entity? If its a larger pharma then the answer is zero. He gets a payoff but then needs to find another job. Going into the private sector now means a fat payoff and some longer term prospects for him personally. At 53 it is now or never.

VEC are likely to see the $32M milestone from Pacira in the mid term (3-5 years) after the extended indication approval. OK, the royalty revenues will fall off sometime next year as some of the patents expire but the milestone is worth 3-4 years of royalties.

VEC expected newsflow that has been mostly overlooked is the likely movement on the partnering of the ellipta generic device. GSK just reported Q1 earnings and it is clear to see they are encouraging switching of patients from Advair in the US to the newer products. The window for significant Advair generic revenues is shrinking fast. However, most of that effort is switching to the ellipta series (also some to Nucala). That is where the action will be going forward and VEC are in a very interesting position. It does all depend on the FDA approval of the generic device and the outcome of the litigation between GSK and VEC in Europe (Q4 2018) and the US (Q2 2019 after date change).

Respiratory is where it is all at and VEC are now developing generics for the 3 top selling US brands plus the Ellipta developments. A decent partnering agreement there and VEC will really take off. Just look at the deal Innoviva have with GSK for the Ellipta delivery device.

They also have their own product on the market in Flutiform, which is doing well enough in the markets it is approved and launched in...shame about the US here!

My expectation is that VEC will not be a separate entity in 18 months time - the expected timeline for submission to the FDA for the generic device. Someone will acquire it, it is just a matter of who, when and at what price?

regards,

Paul

[flemster] 27/4/2018 16:19

ok, so I picked up 5000 yesterday as I think there is something going on here, with limited downside

look at the volume of trades today - £15m...? surprised no Holding(s)announcements ?

[pooroldboy55] 26/4/2018 19:30

Also than I can afford the cucumbers for the garden party! !!!!

[rathean] 26/4/2018 16:12

Lol I meant fund :)

[rathean] 26/4/2018 16:11

Good buying to finish the day, what price a bidding war starts tomorrow to help me find my lavish lifestyle?

[jimboyce] 26/4/2018 14:38

So what Sosei are saying is 'we won't make an offer for Vectura, however if someone else does we will join in an auction.'I get the impression that once this ball starts rolling we will have quite a few interested parties wanting to buy Vectura.

[alexchry] 26/4/2018 08:57

cumnor-the results for 2017 support an share price of around 70p based on US 2018 industry multiples of EV to EBITDA. It won't take much good news to make the current share price look very cheap indeed. Long term holders of SKP, like me, have had disappointments particularly relating to US activities but if things go well with Advair and the litigation plus partnering opportunities then previous disappointments will be well and truly forgotten.

[cumnor] 25/4/2018 21:34

Agree Rathean-if results are taken at face value then Vec is cheap at these levels-unless there is fraud at the top of the company. Management should be well aware of who is selling and playing this and why. Surprised we've had no holding RNSs given recent volumes or statement given share price action as some who bought millions of shares have lost 20% in just a couple of days without an obvious reason. This alone warrants a statement from the ceo as, if he is remotely aware of manipulation, he could be held accountable to those who have bought in. The bid speculation has nothing to do with this-the Japanese company was not on my radar and frankly did not even warrant a denial. This co has a very steady income stream over next several years and should be in a position to pay a divi (which would give credence to it). News that GSK is under pressure on respiratory is in some respects good for Vec's business model and IP. I still expect a takeover-I'm in here very much from the last drop to the 70s but may add tomorrow. imo

[rathean] 25/4/2018 20:48

I don't think it's much of a risk pob55, I bought yesterday at 80. It may test low 70s again but I'd hate to miss out on a takeover watching from the sidelines. Re-read the recent results, solid performance regardless of other issues, imo the risk is to the upside.

[richtea2517] 25/4/2018 20:45

I note the ludicrous price action and the uncomfortable sense of something wrong. What I find interesting is the huge ramp up on social media of wanting to be global leader in airways medicine. New website. All singing all dancing. Is this just a smokescreen. Clearly shorters are murdering the share value but does the company have a real identity and purpose. If so, true value will out once the manipulation has subsided. If not then it's a busted flush with an audacious marketing department.

[alexchry] 25/4/2018 16:53

pob55-oh dear, in the words of Private Frazer 'We're doomed'!

[kolosos] 25/4/2018 16:51

it does seem like someone is happy to accumulate at 80p and someone else is trying to offload at the same price. The price also happened to be the closing price for the March IMM contract.
All very bizarre....