Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[jonnycash1] 21/3/2018 19:34

Annual report 2017 page56

[jonnycash1] 21/3/2018 19:33

s part of its successful product development and active acquisition policy, STADA will continuously expand the Group port-
folio in both the Generics and Branded Products segments with value-adding acquisitions. Within Generics, a segment that
will remain part of STADA’s core business in the future, promising growth opportunities exist in the expansion in markets with
relatively low penetration rates in particular.

[polaris] 21/3/2018 19:08

According to a quick web search, the 3 largest US inhaled brands are: Advair (GSK), Symbicort (AZN) and the Ellipta series (GSK). Things might just be beginning to make sense after all...

(edit) but not for the BS reasons given in the Telegraph tip and the recycled versions several weeks ago. The more i look into this, the more it has some logic behind it. If GSK thought they would see generic sales erosion of the Ellipta series then, if i were them, i would take out the threat. 1-2Bn US would be a reasonable price to pay to take out possible sales erosion of 2Bn+ US from 2019, when the first patents expire. The sales projections of 6Bn US would go out of the window if a generic competitor came in. With no IP to defend then GSK would be in a terrible position. Their only hope would be to delay FDA approvals via backdoor routes. Of course, this is only my opinion and i have no evidence to back that up!

[polaris] 21/3/2018 18:44

and this to back up the previous 2 posts:
Throughout the process, Vectura has gained significant insight into the FDA approval process for complex inhaled generic programmes, which it believes has strengthened the likelihood of success for VR315. Whilst the regulatory bar remains high, the on-going dialogue with the FDA leaves Vectura well placed to react to any new requirements or challenges that lie ahead. These learnings support the Company’s confidence that it has the capabilities to achieve US regulatory approval for its extensive inhaled generic pipeline, which includes generic versions of the three current largest US inhaled brands.

VEC is obviously looking to do some serious leverage in the US markets on delivery techs. That will put several tier I pharmas on high alert to potential erosion of the lucrative market.

I am now of the opinion reading this report that VEC will be in play in the not to distant future as a result of these statements. Maybe not GSK to protect the Advair status but quite possibly GSK to protect the Ellipta series. That will put Novartis and most of the large generics companies on alert too, as the potential value of approved generic inhaler techs 'could' be phenomenal.

[polaris] 21/3/2018 18:37

Also here:
EXPAREL® (Pacira, US) is an injectable product for single-dose administration into the surgical site to produce post-surgical analgesia. Until expiry of certain patents, the earliest of which expire in September 2018, Vectura will continue to receive a three percent share of Pacira’s cash receipts from net sales of EXPAREL® with £6.6 million recognised within other revenue recognised during 2017 (2016 proforma underlying: £5.8 million). Vectura is also eligible to receive a further sales milestone of $32 million when worldwide annual net sales of the product reach $500 million (on a cash-received basis) the receipt of this milestone is not patent dependent.

While the 3% royalty for sales will likely expire this year, the milestone is protected past patent expiry. If Pacira are ever to succeed then they need sales to reach this level. This is a likely one-off 'gift' that VEC will receive, although the timescale remains unclear. It is the equivalent of 4 years of 3% royalties on current sales, so not to be sniffed at.

[cantrememberthis2] 21/3/2018 17:43

Id rather they have cash
Takeover target IMO
Good report on times just released.
Buying tomorrow.
Bots doing their job to drive fear.
News out so screw em.

[justiceforthemany] 21/3/2018 16:39

centremember - there has to be an incentive for shareholders to hang on to their shares though. I doubt the fall would have been steep with a dividend. Hell even 1p/share would do.

[polaris] 21/3/2018 16:38

yuk - i've taken a complete shoeing over the last 2 days on the markets in general. I am almost back to breakeven for the year on my trading account. Not a happy bunny, even though i am still less than 20% funds committed. My portfolio is looking very sick, despite being mostly filled with high dividend yield stocks for regular income. I also think i may have screwed up on the timing of my GBP/SEK hedge for my remaining cash still held in Sweden. The FED announcement today will either really kick me in the balls or provide a welcome respite. I fear the former right now.

[dunderheed] 21/3/2018 15:36

Blimey it's been a tough day for holders on here! Reserved for pram.

[jonnycash1] 21/3/2018 15:20

Amused to see L&G mopping up. That should make closing the shorts more interesting.

[cantrememberthis2] 21/3/2018 15:06

I'm glad no div..carnage in other sectors... Gone in big pm. Will load more.
Better to have cash

[justiceforthemany] 21/3/2018 15:01

Directors bought in bulk around the 90p mark so no buys around 70p may mean closed period ongoing.

[justiceforthemany] 21/3/2018 15:00

Should have announced a maiden (even small) dividend instead of bolstering cash buffers to over £100M

[cantrememberthis2] 21/3/2018 14:45

jc shorts - no news in the news.
80p

[jonnycash1] 21/3/2018 14:44

oh, once the short sellers have got bored I suspect it will pop back up to about 88p.

[dontay] 21/3/2018 14:31

So L&G make another massive increase!?

[pooroldboy55] 21/3/2018 14:29

And what year end is that 2025?

[jonnycash1] 21/3/2018 14:18

Curiously, it's the share buyback that really sticks in my craw. It epitomizes too much of what is wrong within this profitable little company. Still, we should see 120p by year end which will still be a good return.

[dontay] 21/3/2018 13:15

Difficult making some kind of sense to comparing the figures from the 9month 2015-16 to the rather later starting 2016-2017. If anyone's interested in making a play for the company... now is the time to show up!