Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[pooroldboy55] 22/3/2018 08:53

Hi Paul hope your right from what your saying and it's it's not wishful thinking.
All the best A

[cantrememberthis2] 22/3/2018 08:45

Another few K for me...

[polaris] 22/3/2018 08:41

I have tripled up this morning so far, with further orders pending. I might even reposition some of my other holdings.

[cantrememberthis2] 22/3/2018 07:36

I'm buying more at 66p today

[richtea2517] 22/3/2018 07:36

Stick to songwriting Jonny :-)

[jonnycash1] 22/3/2018 06:25

Yes,worth about 120p and more likely to be STADA bidding than gsk. I am wasted on u lot. ;)

[inv] 22/3/2018 02:34

Now the results are out a Takeover will be imminent. Not sure at what price but probably 150p plus

[cumnor] 21/3/2018 22:14

See your point Paul. I think VEC IP and tech could be the way into the US for many pharmas with generic intent in this field. Getting the medication right is one thing, and perhaps less of an obstacle than getting the delivery mechanism perfect to the rigid standards the FDA seems to demand. This was positive. L&Gs investment over last few days very interesting-not pocket money. I think the shorters are more focused on the CEO being less than dynamic with little vision and less likely to pull a rabbit out of the bag on the corporate front than a more confidence inspiring, dynamic CEO-it does make a difference to how a company is perceived by the market. He needs to create value-not allow a take over for half what the company is actually worth because shorters view him as weak. Will directors buy more shares? The statement was positive but predictable which is what the hedgies love. The share buy back was unoriginal, unnecessary and, as yet another example of poor judgement and mistimed. imo

[cantrememberthis2] 21/3/2018 21:56

Bid territory and Peel Hunt analyst asked of similar queries about value etc.
Management response was they believed they are significantly undervalued...
Simply st has intrinsic value nearly double share price.
Fib levels tomorrow
64p 38,2% retracement
or 76p 61.8% bounce

[polaris] 21/3/2018 21:51

After reading the report and listening to the webcast/watching the slide presentation, i think that it exactly the situation VEC are now in Popper Joe from a GSK point of view. They need to act now or risk VEC partnering with a large generics or another Tier I pharma with the necessary infrastructure to manufacture and launch, signalled today as 2020. That is a big fly in the ointment for GSK as they desperately try to switch everyone from Advair to Ellipta products in the US while they keep incumbent status with no generic Advair. If the new products suddenly come under generic competition in 2020 then that would be a disaster for GSK.

[popper joe] 21/3/2018 21:26

Paul, thanks for the clarification. So there would suddenly appear to be a time imperative for either a 3rd party bid to be put forward before GSK can put such a restrictive settlement in place, or for GSK to settle before a 3rd party take-out grabs the VEC IP.

[cityfarmer] 21/3/2018 21:20

Polaris agreed have now listened to it 3 times (very sad I know) and we should have been up today on the Elipta news! not taken a stuffing like we did! Let’s see what tomorrow brings…

[polaris] 21/3/2018 20:42

Popper Joe - yes, exactly that in terms of a clause. VEC may take an updated agreement with GSK for royalties based on IP (higher %age and not capped) in order to take bottom line. Launching their own generic line (Ellipta series is currently 5 products for GSK) without a large generics partner or tier I pharma takes time and money. Sometimes taking a better deal with the existing partner and having a clause not to compete is a better return.

Bear in mind that if VEC win then the 'damages' are not limited to the £13M p.a. Don't confuse the different IP royalty payments. The £9M is from SKP legacy IP and will continue. The VEC legacy IP royalty is capped at £13M p.a. and is not currently being paid, as the licensing was not renewed...so a total of £22M possible p.a., based on agreements valid pre-Aug 2016.

[popper joe] 21/3/2018 20:37

Paul, thanks for your posts today. Very insightful. One point that I was unclear on was where you suggested that a litigation win for VEC might preclude a future launch of an Ellipta generic. Is that because you believe that such a clause might be included in any settlement? If VEC were to win and still have the option to then proceed with a generic, then I would expect that they would do so. A capped £9m royalties plus the legacy SKP royalties would seem to be dwarfed by the potential in the numbers that you highlighted earlier.

[polaris] 21/3/2018 20:31

listening now - that opening statement on the open-inhale-close device really made me smile.

(edits)
ahha - Spiriva, Advair and Symbicort (of course, Boehringer are not publicly listed and so not there in the 2018 top selling respiratory)

Ellipta series are 4th btw!

Andrew Derodra is very clear but a bit dull. ;-)

Ward-Lilley now pushing the inhalation technology side and the aim that VEC want to become the leading inhaler developer in the world.

generic partnering slide 17 ;-) There it is!

Barriers to entry slide 18. Agree with everything he is saying here.

Cityfarmer - ah yes slide 19. Very nice.

Slide 20 - boom!

The FOX and AKITA developments are also interesting, for me at least - slides 21-22

Questions
Ellipta IP for GSK for any VEC generic device from JP Morgan - will they need to challenge patents? reply is they are confident they have the necessary routes from their own IP and expect launch in 2020, assuming FDA approval of the device.

Next on VR315 and the bio-equivalence. What this means going forward for this product and other generics. Bio-equivalence turned up again in later questions.

Some discussion on VR475 and VR647. Former a priority for Europe and latter for US.

Discussion pushing the generics side.

Some discussion about Kinnovata JV - not putting much value at the moment on the JV and the Chinese market is complex. Not expecting launches until early 2020s but a low priority for the next couple of years.

Peel Hunt on returning cash to investors and possibilities for takeover in medium term. Reply is to focus on accelerating development for the US, on controlling capital expenditure and partnering. They will look at M&A where that supports their priorities. Not going to speculate on whether they might be a takeover target.

Numis on barriers to entry - are they more difficult for next generation products? Reply is that the barriers are high and the FDA are updating their requirements. My opinion here is that the barrier to new entrants is only going to get higher.

Spiriva may not be a directly substitutable device. May need a slightly different route here.

VR475 and VR647 questions on costs if they take forward themselves rather than partnering. Clearly preference is to partner with someone who has the access to market and established infrastructure.

Listening to all of this i really do not understand the share price today. Do the analysts and press not understand?

[polaris] 21/3/2018 20:23

You might also ask: if the IP expires on the device then who cares?

Well, if all patent protection on the device expires then anyone can make a generic version. However, if only certain ones expire then you still need the rest of the IP or you have to develop an entire device from scratch and prove efficacy and delivery equivalence. The generic Advair problems in the US are exactly down to this. It is very hard to prove delivery equivalence and the FDA are taking a much harder line than the European agencies. The generic Advair/seretide in Europe/RoW is not really a generic as the delivery devices are different. They require the prescriber to give a course on the use of the new device before it can be prescribed. Therefore, for me (and the FDA it appears) they are not real generics as they are not directly substitutable.
.
Armed with their IP portfolio, VEC can get a generic inhaler approved. That is what they stated in the results today. At that point it becomes open season on GSK Ellipta series for VEC. Other companies cannot copy the device if any IP contained within still holds. They need to develop a new device or only use the parts of the IP that are no longer patent protected. Either way they need years to take that device through testing and approval, in the best case!

GSK may well be testing the IP portfolio through litigation before having to resort to buying VEC outright to stop a generic approval in 2019. Until today, i didn't understand why they would even bother. Now, it makes complete sense to me. However, by VEC putting it in the results, GSK have just lost their edge on the competition. If noone understands the reasoning for challenging IP then there is no perceived value. I think GSK were expecting to lose and then be forced to buyout VEC to protect Ellipta.

Now it is out there, the game has suddenly changed. It may just be an inspired piece of middle digitry by a small pharma in order to start a bidding war.

time will tell

regards,

Paul

[cantrememberthis2] 21/3/2018 20:13

The Times has a positive spin on this.
Ive got in big this PM.

Will load at 67p and keep another 10k spare. However, note the L&G quiet build where they gathered two tranches on the same day but reported a few days apart. I note GSA Capital shorted another £0.5m on Monday this week which explains the final rinse out this PM.

Close will close out over the coming weeks as their strategy is agressive and compelling. £100m+ cash in the bank nice work.

They have also indicated catalyst newsflow and we know what that means - value generating.

Big Pharmas and Shorts Squeeze perfect combo for a squeeze.

Best days to buy IMO when stock gets hammered.

Game on.

[cityfarmer] 21/3/2018 20:13

Polaris, worth listening (being sad I have twice..) to the results presentation as (Ellipta series) also covered here: hxxp://www.vectura.com/investors/presentations-webcasts/ slide 19 :-)

[polaris] 21/3/2018 20:07

Cityfarmer,

Until i sat down and read in detail the results this evening i hadn't even seen that paragraph. Unless you are aware, and i mean really aware, of the details of delivery technology, then this is something that can be easily overlooked.

By putting it in the results, VEC have just fired a warning shot across the bows of a tier I pharma...in public! (IMO of course)

I still expect negative write-ups for VEC in the financial press tomorrow morning.

I'll be there waiting.

[muffster] 21/3/2018 20:03

Perfect well reasoned thanks

[cityfarmer] 21/3/2018 19:59

Polaris thanks for above posts and tend to agree GSK must be quite nervous about VEC on an ever increasing number of fronts (likely a few others are too) GSK would equally be worried if VEC was to fall into the wrong hands thus a tactical move by GSK just to remove this potential thorn may well have increased today (not that the share price reflected these thoughts…)

[muffster] 21/3/2018 19:50

Don't get your point Polaris. What point exactly are you making... Exactly please not random articles.

[polaris] 21/3/2018 19:46

Yet another random Telegraph comment. I think they are missing the point, again!

(edit) beaten to the post. TY cityfarmer.