Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bbluesky] 25/7/2012 11:44

Re- Departing holder: other rigs in the sea?

[ed 123] 25/7/2012 10:08

Late printed trade from yesterday; another 1% of the equity changed hands.

VPP's price firmness continues, despite the wider market wobbles.

Buying ahead of Causeway's first oil? But why is the departing holder going at this time?

The June director buys were well-timed (360p and 365p).

[ed 123] 23/7/2012 16:48

Today's closing statistics ...

Brent Crude down 3%.

FTSE100 down 122 points.

VPP shares up 1.5p.

[sranmal] 20/7/2012 15:16

Cheers CT! Looks like it's there or quite near.

[sranmal] 20/7/2012 14:17

The Borgsten Dolphin finished the Tryfan well on 25th June and was supposed to be mobilised to complete a Causeway well afterwards. Anyone like to hazard a guess how long it will take to get there and spud?

[ed 123] 20/7/2012 13:15

No, sorry, not got the broker's note.

If you have any joy, would you post here? Thanks.

[staverly] 20/7/2012 13:12

Ed123: Thanks for your steer - i cant see how the variance in ppb could explain such a huge gap without unwinding of abnormal hedging positions which is not the case here. Ditto dpn; I was hoping someone might have seen a detailed broker note which would have highlighted the reasons!

[ed 123] 20/7/2012 11:18

Also, analysts may be assuming a lower achieved price per barrel this year (last year was $110), which would of course lower expected revenue this year, and hit expected profit proportionately harder.

Further regarding profit, the depreciation charge may be higher in the current year, if the company writes more for unsuccessful wells/licence costs/seismic costs.

Any depreciation will be a non-cash charge and VPP still has plenty of unused tax losses, so it will be highly cash generative this year from its production.

The cash flow will be used up by the capital costs this year. Next year should see surplus cash net of capital spending.

I don't see any problem with the lower predicted eps. Further out, they need either exploration success or else they should be using their strong cash flow to buy into the discoveries of others.

[staverly] 20/7/2012 06:48

Appreciate somehelp here as having read management narrative still can't figure out why 2012 EPS estimated (on Sharescope) at 63p when FY2011 reported 178p. I did note that 2012 revenue is projected to be materially lower that 2011 but again I couldn't see any reason why, thanks.

[utrecht_00] 19/7/2012 08:33

6% thats a lot in one go. I always thought that the Indians or Chinese might have a pop, given the cash flow. Although the way its going I could imagine a venture capital firm could swoop and look to sell on for a decent profit.

Either way we must be on the takeover radar; and the BOD have no-one to blame but themselves if we get a low ball offer they can't defend.

[ed 123] 19/7/2012 08:09

Late trade print from yesterday matches yesterday's big buy. So 6% of the equity has gone from a single holder to another single holder (who could already have some?).

Holdings rns's to follow.

[ed 123] 18/7/2012 23:06

Today saw reiteration of "outperform" for VPP from RBC Capital Markets. New target price 725p, down from 800p.

If 725p is a fair price target, then assuming a 50% takeover premium, there would still be around 120p of extra value (plus savings from cancelling HQ costs) for the acquirer.

Enquest too busy with Kraken? Premier too busy with Rockhopper? Too small for KNOC? Too big for Ithaca?

Anyone chance of a deal for Faroe paper? It would be a good fit imho (sharing areas of activity, good cashflow from VPP, FPM having better geo team than VPP?)

(Just my own speculation on a possible takeover.)

[ed 123] 18/7/2012 18:53

Agree that the seller is still there but the buyer is slightly more assertive.

If some of the original buyers at 750p exit, it will lower the average institutional buy price. That could make it easier to agree a takeover - quick buck for the newbies.

(Almost) any change is welcome by me.

[utrecht_00] 18/7/2012 16:17

Ed- good call, well spotted, lets get them cleared out so we can move up. Looks like its trying to but being held back a little.

[ed 123] 18/7/2012 14:37

Another 6% of the equity changed hands in one trade today (12:10).

There were two previous notifications of similar size.

Possibly one or more of the ipo investors (who paid 750p) have exited?

It seems we're due one or more "decrease" shareholding notifications.

[utrecht_00] 16/7/2012 23:21

Good to see glg and cs picking up more

[pyemckay] 11/7/2012 17:49

tipped in growth investor on Monday could explain the small rise, undervalued imo

[liam1om] 11/7/2012 14:32

Anyone feeling we may be a about to receive a bid approach.

I was in Nautical Petroleum when they received the approach from Cairn and there was some strange trading patterns before that was announced.

XEL is also up, I think somone has got a whiff that there is a predator around but they arent sure who its for...

Lets see what happens.

[ed 123] 11/7/2012 13:01

On reflection, that's my reading of it too, utrecht_00.

[utrecht_00] 11/7/2012 12:31

seems the seller shows up on any spike. It does seem that its trying to go higher and if the seller clears it could pop.

[ed 123] 11/7/2012 11:33

Odd rise yesterday morning and another spike up now. Clumsy trading by someone, buying at 413p?. Seller has returned just now, offering more shares at 400p.

I'm mystified.