Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ohisay] 14/11/2012 08:56

Well that was the smoke - it appears there isn't a fire though.

[philo124] 14/11/2012 08:15

Will ask broker; any info will pass it on.

[ed 123] 14/11/2012 08:13

A 15,000 trade printed at 485p. Someone's happy to pay a lot more than would have been needed yesterday.

[eipgam] 14/11/2012 08:13

Why the rise? Let's hope we can hold onto this and get another rise when interested parties are revealed.

[ed 123] 14/11/2012 08:11

Valiant may have been tipped somewhere. Volume only 46,000 and up 10%.

..... or is it the initial buying by some in the know?

Could be an interesting day.

[ed 123] 14/11/2012 08:06

Looking very promising!

Someone is trying to hoover up a few.

[ohisay] 14/11/2012 08:02

We have welly..

[utrecht_00] 12/11/2012 19:08

me too. Just happy to hear that causeway is flowing oil. Hope they get sold for a decent premium.

[pyemckay] 12/11/2012 15:24

The company is cheap but the jury is out regarding causeway.



still a holder and will hold till we hear details of the impending merger.

[utrecht_00] 12/11/2012 14:55

horizontal makes it more difficult to stimulate etc.

Who knows but its not going to be fatal.

At worst they are still producing 4500 bopd gross per day.

They will be making a pre-tax profit of circa 118 million pounds next year. They have roughly 45 million pounds of debt. The market cap is 178 million pounds. The company is up for sale. Whats not to like?

Enlighten me.

[pyemckay] 12/11/2012 14:46

so its horizontal. enlighten me as to what diffrence that makes in the clean up process?

how much will the stimulation cost and how much downtime?

I await with interest.


Dont be brainwashed with spin from a RNS.

[utrecht_00] 12/11/2012 12:27

pye- they said due to the horizontal nature of the well. They also stated they would stimulate the well if necessary so things could sort themselves out. But either way there's not a lot of debt and this thing is throwing off cash. With the deferred tax losses its got to be attractive to an acquirer.

[pyemckay] 12/11/2012 12:15

the ultimate questions is why the clean up is taking longer than usual and also the further costs if a well intervention is necessary.

doubts remain with causeway.

[utrecht_00] 12/11/2012 09:02

Ed, totally agree, looks very cheap. Exit at 11500 bpd is nice. Opportunity through stimulation for causeway volume to increase (not sure about the costs), biut sounds like it won't need a full workover. Right VPP waste no money on exploration just crack on withe the sale now the market has the full picture.

[ed 123] 12/11/2012 08:42

So, we finally got the news. Gross flow rate 4500 bpd, about half the expected rate.

Market has hardly moved, so not unexpected.

Thankfully the Dons is producing nicely. Exit for year end is estimated at 11,500 pbd.

Market cap about $280m. I make that about equal to next year's operating cash flow.

That cash flow appears to use up the available tax losses by the end of next year (but may be more losses available due to recent Causeway spending).

Still looks cheap to me.

[utrecht_00] 09/11/2012 09:41

Ed- thanks for that - good news on the Dons, fingers crossed for Causeway. Anything would be a bonus as currently the share price seems to have nothing factored in for extra production.

As for your RNS, it could be producing at 50,000 bopd and its a toss up as to whether management would RNS it.....

[ed 123] 09/11/2012 08:39

Thanks, ohisay and frazboy. :-)

Dons news from Enquest today.

NET PRODUCTION

Daily average Daily average
1 Jan' 2012 1 Jan' 2011
to to
31 Oct' 31 Oct'
2012 2011
(Boepd) (Boepd)
Thistle/Deveron 7,845 5,246
Dons/Conrie 10,203 13,145
Heather/Broom 3,521 5,553
-------------- --------------
Total 21,569 23,944

-- The up-dip sidetrack of West Don Well W2 (now designated Well W5) came on line on 8 October at an initial rate of 2,000 Boepd

-- S10 is anticipated to come on stream soon at Don Southwest



Still waiting on the Causeway production news here. Both AEY and VPP share prices seem to have settled and at an unenthusiastic level. Market now anticipating a 'below expectations' result?

After saying early November for first oil, Monday merits an rns or one sort or another.

[vraic] 08/11/2012 09:29

see www.oilbarrel.com 7/11/12 whole page on VPP

[frazboy] 06/11/2012 16:24

i think the next announcement, that first oil from Causeway has been delayed, has also been delayed. Tomorrow i assume!

Ed, i don't know what pressure data they will have. obviously they'll have tubing head (on the platform) data, plus possible some sub-sea data from the manifold. the nearer to the reservoir the data is the better the quality. if things are really bad, even with just TH data, you'll be able to see problems early on, perhaps even the first 2-3 weeks, but realistically nothing will be obvious for 2-3 months

we shall see!

[ohisay] 03/11/2012 18:19

Ed - I think that's right re the New Year.
Same reason I've never expected bids for SIA to materialise before it was clear that TGT was fairly straightforward - as it now appears to be.
I well remember Chinguetti - geography of reservoir turned out to be like spaghetti as I recall.
OH and yes they won't bulk up - they're past that .

[ed 123] 03/11/2012 16:51

Thanks, frazboy.

Guess I should have added "to plan." after "flows". Anyway, if Causeway doesn't flow to plan, I lose a lot of money!

How long would you guess a prospective buyer of VPP would need to see reservoir data before risking making an offer? Partly answering my own question, I suppose they could apply a risk factor at any time, and that factor would change with the passage of time?

utrecht_00.
The feeling I have is that management were pushed by some of the large share holders into seeking offers. However, since the best price would be obtained by a seller who had options and was not desperate, Valiant are looking also at other options. If Valiant did choose to bulk up, what would that do for the share price and what would the big share holders think about that? My answers would be, negative for both. And, who would want that?

It remains possible that Valiant will bulk up, but my money's on them either recommending acceptance of a bid or doing their own piecemeal selling of all their various assets - if that would produce a higher total return for share holders.

Interesting here, but we may not get the news we hope for until into the New Year?

[utrecht_00] 03/11/2012 12:13

if the BOD decide to beef up production I wonder if they will bid for LHD and compete with IAE who could also participate in a breakup of VPP.