Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[sludgesurfer] 07/7/2012 16:04

Thanks for the comments.
Regarding Norvarg, I'm struggling to get excited about gas at the moment, although given my very long term strategy, I probably should be as there is some great value in gas focussed companies - Encana for one.
I would be more excited about the remaining Norwegian acreage if I had much hope of them finding anything. It's hard not to lose confidence in their subsurface team with recent results.
On Crawford, I completely agree. Enquest have a lot on their plate. Are they interested in an expensive, tight, technically complex multi-well development like Crawford or do they have bigger fish to fry?
On the Don's like pyemckay says, the next Enquest update is key. Their March Interim was very bullish. I think the 5k jan to march figure perhaps reflects a planned outage on Thistle/Northern Producer.
Regarding a bid.....being both an IAE and NPE holder, I have mixed views on bids... :-)

thanks again
Sludge

[pyemckay] 07/7/2012 14:22

If causeway comes on stream without any hitches and stabalises as the production profile predicted then it will be a takeover candidate but not until then IMO. but then again someone might wan it on the cheap with the element of risk attached to causeway..

still holding...

[utrecht_00] 07/7/2012 13:21

SS- you missed the only reason to invest more here is a potential takeover which must be on the cards. The big negative is no drilling success and nothing coming up that will change that. Handcross dragging on and they burn a shed load of cash in capex.

I do not understand why the company don't just out this up for sale and alert buyers to unlock value- as the board clearly can't.

[sigala] 07/7/2012 09:19

SS,

I think your summary is reasonable. The only point that I might add would be to look at the assests that VPP have picked up in Norway through two acquisitions: first through Sagex last year, and more recently from Rocksource.

The most important asset that they picked up IMO is the "13% stake in the large Norvarg gas discovery made in the Barents Sea during 2011, estimated by the operator (Total) to have gross resources between 60 and 300 mmboe".

I think an appraisal well on that is pencilled in for 2013. Potentially I can see this asset being pretty important.

From what I can see, the rest of the purchases are basically a whole lot of exploration acres on the Norwegian continental shelf - I have heard it said that the Norwegian waters are perhaps less explored than the UK North Sea - and I am sure that is true of more frontier areas like the Barents Sea where VPP have gained a foothold.

So - they now have lots of tempting new areas to drill - but that could be a double-edged sword, couldn't it?

Like other posters here I would like VPP to use their financial strength to buy into more development/producing assets - with a bit of exploration on the side.

They have to keep one eye on future cash flows. As you say there doesn't seem to be a lot of newsflow about Crawford - and VPP have quite a lot of their P50 reserves in that field. I am a bit concerned that with ENQ now tackling much bigger projects like Kraken - then Crawford might start to drop down their list of priorities.

Personally at these sorts of prices I would think that VPP look interesting to a new investor. For me - I have as many VPP shares as I feel comfortable holding (at a b/e of 520p) so I am resisting the temptation to increase my exposure.....because I have a niggling concern about their business strategy.

But there are certainly worse co's in the O&G sector.

AIMHO,

Sigala

[pyemckay] 07/7/2012 00:37

production from decc website suggests valiant runnning at 5k bopd approx from jan to march.

enquest report early august from memeory so that should give us better production figures on some of the fields.

[pyemckay] 07/7/2012 00:29

latest presentation suggests production of 8-10k for the next 3 years or so, its hardly a growing company!

when you think of what has been wasted in exploration, they could have easily bought another north sea player to which a large increase in reserves or a production increasse would have helped the price,

they have threw away a lot of money trying to find oil when they could have bought it. then again as shareholders we would have wanted some explo anyway.

a small part of my portfolio that i should have sold at 600p recently but will keep to causeway production now.

[sludgesurfer] 06/7/2012 23:48

Considering a top up here after a while of not looking in....some ramblings below... Appreciate any views or corrections:

The investment case...
~24million barrels of P50 reserves on a market cap of £157m
~7k bpd production
~historic p/e of sub 3
~forward p/e of sub 5 based on average forward eps from recent broker notes (for what they're worth)
~latest broker targets from Jeffries/Finncap/Citigroup of £5.85, £5.60, £7.20 (for what they're worth)
~no debt
~favourable tax position
~Hedging - 0.8mm bbls of 2012 production hedged at $105/bbl
~Handcross could be a game-changer

The 'run away' case...
Orchid - Duster - CoS = 25%
Cladhan S - Poor, likely useless = CoS = 30%
Tybalt - Duster - CoS = 30%
Timon - on hold - costly so far, no result - CoS = 25%
Tryfan - Duster - CoS = 25%
Technically complex Causeway development drilling incl. subsea ESPs to which VPP are exposed to ~65%
non-ISAble
It's all gone pretty quiet on Crawford.....
Little remaining exploration upside....
Very exposed to Don's production which has disappointed previously

I'm currently finding more negatives than positives....

sludge

[utrecht_00] 06/7/2012 13:31

chart trader- our only hope.

[utrecht_00] 05/7/2012 13:43

lets hope so, wonder if we will find out who the seller is?

[ed 123] 05/7/2012 10:36

Through 400p. That didn't take long.

Continuing strength evident in the trading. More share price rise to come, imo.

[ed 123] 05/7/2012 08:58

Seller being eased out again this morning.

Should go through 400p today, imo.

[utrecht_00] 04/7/2012 12:10

Ed- I agree, just produce, save the pennies on capex, and we'd be doing well. Handcross the infamous, well, I doubt we'd hear anything until q1 2013 on farmout discussion's.

[ed 123] 04/7/2012 11:28

You should be fine with that average, utrecht_00, imo.

Without calculating, I think I'll be somewhere close to you.

If they stopped exploration and just developed and produced what they've got, we'd both end up with a good profit.

Apropos exploration, I wonder how they're progressing with the Handcross farmout?

[utrecht_00] 04/7/2012 11:00

ED, I'm in at an average of 460p. So a ways to go to breakeven for me.

[ed 123] 04/7/2012 10:52

Seller still there, but gradually wanting a higher price - so I presume he is coming towards the end. Result is a slow recovery in the share price

I've made a couple of buys in this dip.

Glad to see it's finally got above half the IPO price. :-/ I didn't participate in that but I am holding some from well above the current level. :-(

It needs a significant positive event to change sentiment. Causeway first oil might do it? (Holding Antrim Energy too, so Causeway is important for me.)

[utrecht_00] 04/7/2012 07:36

wonder if the seller is done and who it is/was?

[utrecht_00] 29/6/2012 16:56

fraz- tend to agree but lets see if we get an RNS. Buyout the only chance short term of seeing this above 500p.

[ed 123] 29/6/2012 16:38

Seller will announce in due course. Encouraging closing auction here. :-)

O/t - Big seller still present at FPM. Someone's been willing to mop them up.

[frazboy] 29/6/2012 16:38

no one that large, it's been a long time since we had an RNS telling us of a change in ownership

[utrecht_00] 29/6/2012 16:25

wonder who is selling here?

[ed 123] 29/6/2012 15:55

Either the seller is playing it cunningly or he's (almost?) out.

Yep, utrecht_00, not the biggest of buys but better than nothing. Unfortunately, director buying says a takeover is not under discussion.

O/t - It looks like a seller is being cleared out of FPM. I bought there today too. (No advice intended.)

[ed 123] 29/6/2012 14:18

Hmmm ... I may have been premature with my buying.

Seller is not yet done.

[utrecht_00] 29/6/2012 11:58

not dipping much though are they?