Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 29/6/2012 11:15

Bought a few this morning. If the directors are dipping into their pockets ...

[pyemckay] 28/6/2012 09:58

nothing due from enquest until 2nd week in August .

[frazboy] 28/6/2012 07:28

good to see a non-exec buying

looking at 2012 Capex it was meant to be $250 - $300m with a 60/40 split on development/exploration

they've drilled/are drilling 5 exploration/appraisal wells (Cladham South, Tryan, Tybalt, Orchard, Timon) and so far with an average COS of 25% so not too surprising they're dry (i reckon about a 70% chance one of them would have found something but I would have to work out the probabilities and time is precious). but that's not my point, the average farm-in is around 35% so the total cost will only be say $50m? and the other $50m is for the seismic acquisitions in Faroe, UK and Norway. seem reasonable?

the point is they've not blown quite the whole of the cashflow on these dry holes

share look cheap, but i'll wait on a production update (from Enquest!)

[frazboy] 27/6/2012 13:01

i've been watching valiant for quite a while, may yet dip my toes back in but think i'll wait for a H1 production update (which will probably come from Enquest!), and news on Causeway

would like to know how much cash they've burnt through, a lot of the wells were quick and i think there was at least 1 carry

watching and waiting

[utrecht_00] 27/6/2012 09:58

Sigala,

I think there are better oil plays out there. The reason to buy this now lies squarely on the chance of a bid. They will not find anymore oil this year. Lord knows how much cash they have burnt through. A takeover (which is probably quite likely) is the best bet.

Take a look at NEW.

[ed 123] 26/6/2012 19:25

I feel the same as you, Sigala, not sure about topping up here.

I have cash available. However, there may yet be another leg down for markets, as the Eurozone kicks the can down the road. Also, Valiant would have to compete for my cash with some other lowly rated stocks.

All easy with hindsight of course, but junior oil cos. are having great difficulty getting funding atm. If VPP hadn't gone off exploring it would have had the cash to pick up percentages of other's projects cheaply. The share price might now have been >500p?

The best bit of luck I've had with Valiant was selling a few to buy some Nautical Petroleum before the bid. I could have been jumping in the wrong direction - but lady luck smiled on me.

The reverse trade is open to me, sell Nautical for a big profit and buy back those Valiant shares for less than my sell price. Hmmmm ... maybe not. If I hold onto that cash, something more compelling may come along later.

[sigala] 26/6/2012 18:33

Hi everyone,

Well at 350p surely VPP is now thoroughly bombed out? Please tell me we're not going to see it down in the 2's......!!!

Its clear that the market is sending a message that it is far from convinced by VPP's strategy and/or its ability to execute that strategy.

As other posters have pointed out - finding oil is not easy, so there is still the possiblility that VPP have just been very unlucky. But as the list of dusters lengthens, inevitably it raises questions about their ability to identify plausible prospects.

So I think we have one further well to "look forward to" (if that is the right phrase) - Timon - when they find another contractor.

At this price I am tempted to top up - normally I would have thought that a co with perhaps 6 or 7k bopd currently would not be valued at £144m and I would dive in at this share price - but I'm not sure I am brave enough to increase my exposure here.

Anyone else tempted to top up?

Sigala

[utrecht_00] 26/6/2012 14:54

ohisay- not selling at a loss. Wonder why my default position is negative- take a look at the shareprice maybe?

[ohisay] 26/6/2012 14:31

There are several comparable - Serica off the top - clearly not Encore who had a an exceptionally good technical team - but really if you're not convinced just sell up and try another home for your cash - your default mode over the past year seems to be consistently negative if I may say so.

[utrecht_00] 26/6/2012 13:59

Please name another NS oiler with a worse drilling record?

[ohisay] 26/6/2012 13:43

Its not much worse than a typical N.Sea COS which is 15/20%.

[utrecht_00] 25/6/2012 15:32

exactly, in fact I can't think of many other companies with a worse failure rate than VPP, what is it now 5 dusters on the bounce? Its time for the company to stop burning cash, stop drilling, keep pumping and return profit to shareholders in dividends for a while. If they don't/can't drill handcross or get a partner then put the company up for sale.

[utrecht_00] 25/6/2012 14:45

lets hope they don't get there. Instead of farm in in someone might as well just bid for the whole company. Its time to out this company out of its misery and ours as well.

[ohisay] 25/6/2012 14:16

If they did Handcross without a farm out I'd really think they.d lost the plot.

[utrecht_00] 25/6/2012 13:49

take a look at US Oil and gas and see what happens when drilling goes right......

[utrecht_00] 25/6/2012 10:07

Phil- I'd say someone will probably try a bid at 500 to 525p. Handcross is what these dummys should be drilling. Without a bid I can't see it going much lower than it is.

[philo124] 25/6/2012 09:50

Thanks a lot.

[ohisay] 25/6/2012 09:46

IMO Even in this market its worth 500p based on a 15$ developed reserves oil price.
These aren't markets sadly for buy and hold unless the odds are very clearly stacked in your favour .
I'm running at 40% cash at the mo on the basis Frau Nein just goes on thinking about next years German elections and not much else.

[philo124] 25/6/2012 09:31

Any ideas on the upside with/without a bid anyone. I have patiently held in a market which doesn't favour patient investing.

[philo124] 25/6/2012 09:31

Any ideas on the upside with/without a bid anyone. I have patiently held in a market which doesn't favour patient investing.

[utrecht_00] 25/6/2012 08:50

ohisay- its always been leaky, thats a problem, but I can't now see that the BOD could resist a decent bid. They have tried and failed to add to their reserves, burning through a pile of cash on explo and capex. Its time to put the company up for sale.