Universe Share Discussion Threads

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 11:12

Presently 2 v 2

KBC and WINS at 16p and EVO and SCAP at 17.5p

[ted1806] 10/3/2006 11:06

Trying to get under 17p

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 10:58

gowise, there was some big trades recently, which I think cleared out the excess, however the down markets early this week led to some more selling.

I think once buy volume beats sells by about 75K volume, then it will start to move back upwards.

Could be, and should be, in for a strong run into results, the Charles Stanley Buy rating at 23p still stands.

[gowise] 10/3/2006 10:54

mms mainly sellers, ted. 17p is easy unless you're wanting millions.

[ted1806] 10/3/2006 10:48

Have put an order in. Lets see if it gets filled.

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 10:48

With EPS forecast for the soon to be current year of 2.3p we are presently on a pr PER of less than times 8 and what I would think (with 07 forecast of 3p EPS) on a pr forward PER of less than times 6.

A major move up is due with a coming return to full year profits, I think.


It has been rumoured we could get 06 EPS forecast upgrade to 3p, which would be very significant !

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 10:44

Thanks gowise, I have copied your post over to the new Universe Thread, link below :

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 10:43

Good news, thanks to gowise, and it confirms what I was hearing that all is ok and things are going very well for UNG.


gowise - 10 Mar'06 - 10:35 - 138 of 138

Papal, you may be interested to know that I spoke to the company secretary this morning as I was worried that there was no pre-results trading statement this year. She reassured me that that was a one-off last year on the broker's advice and said that as they had issued a few notices of contract wins they didn't think a statement was necessary. Everything appears to be fine and results will be as usual in the week beginning 27th March.

[gowise] 10/3/2006 10:35

Papal, you may be interested to know that I spoke to the company secretary this morning as I was worried that there was no pre-results trading statement this year. She reassured me that that was a one-off last year on the broker's advice and said that as they had issued a few notices of contract wins they didn't think a statement was necessary. Everything appears to be fine and results will be as usual in the week beginning 27th March.

[Abuse team] 10/3/2006 06:13

Post removed by ADVFN

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 05:15

This was the Sept 05 Charles Stanley note at 23p after interims with a BUY recommendation, and all we have since this is contract wins :


The group has announced interim results which show a good performance from HTEC and robust trading at Master Change. While the reported result has been diluted by First Remit (which has since been sold), the continuing operations showed a significant improvement on the prior year and the group is now well placed for the future. HTEC has benefited from the roll-out of HydraPOS to a number of retailers although the divisional margin was slightly lower than expected given the costs associated with Chip & Pin. Following these results we have modestly reduced our HTEC forecasts for the full year (to reflect the lower margin) resulting in our adjusted group pre-tax profit forecasts falling from £1.49m to £1.37m and giving an adjusted EPS of 1.8p (assuming an effective tax charge of 20%). The shares are up modestly since the disposal of First Remit was announced on 15 August and while we have reduced our HTEC forecasts, given a clean group structure (post the sale of First Remit) and a 2006 PER of 10.2x based on conservative growth assumptions, we retain our Buy recommendation.

For the six months to 30 June 2005, continuing turnover increased by 33.6% to £14.7m (2004: £11.0m) with total turnover (including First Remit) up 9.6% to £22.3m (2004: £20.3m). The continuing H1 operating profit (which included HTEC and the French Master Change operations) was £1.23m (2004: £0.76m) with the operating margin increasing to 8.4% (2004: 6.9%) reflecting the improvement at Master Change outweighing the decline in margin at HTEC. The discontinued operations contributed an operating loss of £0.45m with £0.1m derived from the now closed UK and Austrian Master Change activities and First Remit contributing a loss of £0.35m, materially unchanged on the prior year. The operating exceptionals of £0.3m were mainly as a result of the closure of the remainder of the bureau de change outside Paris and were in-line with expectations. The group has declared an unchanged interim dividend of 0.25p per share and net debt at 30 June was £3.4m (2004: £4.4m).

HTEC continues to perform well although the H1 margin was slightly lower than expected given continued investment in Chip & Pin and increased contracted engineering field resource (given strong demand). The first half of the financial year has benefited from the roll-out of HydraPOS (point of sales system) to Morrisons and Asda which we estimate will result in an H1:H2 weighting of c.60:40. The order book for H2 gives visibility of near 100% of our HTEC forecast (assuming no slippage) although we expect the H2 margin to be lower given the product mix. The group's Chip & Pin Outdoor Payment Terminal ("OPT") is now in use at Asda while the on-line loyalty programme with Morrisons has been successful and we expect the group to roll this out to other retailers in 2006.

Master Change now has a core estate of ten profitable shops, all based in Paris. The peak summer season has gone well and the business is on course to generate a divisional operating profit of £0.35m in 2005.

On 15 August, the group announced that it has sold its international money transfer business, First Remit to a subsidiary of Travelex, for an undisclosed sum. The performance of First Remit has been disappointing over recent years and with the business unable to reach critical mass in a competitive market, it had continued to be loss-making, diluting the improvement at HTEC and Master Change.

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 04:49

Link back to old thread :

[papalpower] 10/3/2006 04:48

New PBB thread for UNG at the link below :

[papalpower] 07/3/2006 17:20

This was the Sept 05 Charles Stanley note at 23p after interims with a BUY recommendation, and all we have since this is contract wins :


The group has announced interim results which show a good performance from HTEC and robust trading at Master Change. While the reported result has been diluted by First Remit (which has since been sold), the continuing operations showed a significant improvement on the prior year and the group is now well placed for the future. HTEC has benefited from the roll-out of HydraPOS to a number of retailers although the divisional margin was slightly lower than expected given the costs associated with Chip & Pin. Following these results we have modestly reduced our HTEC forecasts for the full year (to reflect the lower margin) resulting in our adjusted group pre-tax profit forecasts falling from £1.49m to £1.37m and giving an adjusted EPS of 1.8p (assuming an effective tax charge of 20%). The shares are up modestly since the disposal of First Remit was announced on 15 August and while we have reduced our HTEC forecasts, given a clean group structure (post the sale of First Remit) and a 2006 PER of 10.2x based on conservative growth assumptions, we retain our Buy recommendation.

For the six months to 30 June 2005, continuing turnover increased by 33.6% to £14.7m (2004: £11.0m) with total turnover (including First Remit) up 9.6% to £22.3m (2004: £20.3m). The continuing H1 operating profit (which included HTEC and the French Master Change operations) was £1.23m (2004: £0.76m) with the operating margin increasing to 8.4% (2004: 6.9%) reflecting the improvement at Master Change outweighing the decline in margin at HTEC. The discontinued operations contributed an operating loss of £0.45m with £0.1m derived from the now closed UK and Austrian Master Change activities and First Remit contributing a loss of £0.35m, materially unchanged on the prior year. The operating exceptionals of £0.3m were mainly as a result of the closure of the remainder of the bureau de change outside Paris and were in-line with expectations. The group has declared an unchanged interim dividend of 0.25p per share and net debt at 30 June was £3.4m (2004: £4.4m).

HTEC continues to perform well although the H1 margin was slightly lower than expected given continued investment in Chip & Pin and increased contracted engineering field resource (given strong demand). The first half of the financial year has benefited from the roll-out of HydraPOS (point of sales system) to Morrisons and Asda which we estimate will result in an H1:H2 weighting of c.60:40. The order book for H2 gives visibility of near 100% of our HTEC forecast (assuming no slippage) although we expect the H2 margin to be lower given the product mix. The group's Chip & Pin Outdoor Payment Terminal ("OPT") is now in use at Asda while the on-line loyalty programme with Morrisons has been successful and we expect the group to roll this out to other retailers in 2006.

Master Change now has a core estate of ten profitable shops, all based in Paris. The peak summer season has gone well and the business is on course to generate a divisional operating profit of £0.35m in 2005.

On 15 August, the group announced that it has sold its international money transfer business, First Remit to a subsidiary of Travelex, for an undisclosed sum. The performance of First Remit has been disappointing over recent years and with the business unable to reach critical mass in a competitive market, it had continued to be loss-making, diluting the improvement at HTEC and Master Change.

[papalpower] 07/3/2006 16:21

Not much happening, L2 is 2 v 1 and we just wait for the next round of big buys to come in.

[papalpower] 07/3/2006 12:30

Nice to see some big buys coming in recently, someone snapping up what should, by results and outlook, be bargain prices.

[divina] 06/3/2006 12:13

maybe seller down and we can get a decent rise up to results. Quiet here, i like quiet BBs :))

[glasshalfull] 05/3/2006 18:17

Hi

I've been monitoring UNG for some time and researched the company (with PP's kind help) a couple of months ago.

I feel that on the information available that the company is undervalued, however as Jacknife has intimated there is clearly a seller who ain't finished yet and as such I'm still here on the sidelines.

HTEC appears to have a valuable niche in the petrol sector but I feel that they are reliant on this sector and must diversify. The problem to me is that it also appears ultra competitive out there and I'm unable to get a feel for the growth the company can generate in the next few years - chip and pin has been rolled out now so apart from the loyalty business how much growth is there ?

I wish holders the best of luck but until I can get a better feel of how the company will grow and develop HTEC then I'll remain watching.

Before I finish I have to say that as there has been quite a bit of consolidation in the sector, maybe that's the way in which value will be realised in this situation.

Kind regards
GHF

[rabbrooks] 05/3/2006 12:02

JakNife That does make sense. It may be that the large seller has a strategy which conflicts with the contributors expectations here anot relating specifically to UNG.I wouldn't hold my breath on that one . The chart signs are not encouraging in any way. The dilemma is Do we hang on to UNG, or have we been HUNG out to dry. It's a dilemma.

[bog trotter] 03/3/2006 20:16

Corse its not a coincidence, This is another MM tree shake, we all know these are on the rise, but a little tree shake and then people start to get worried and the mm's yet again hover up the sells prior to the intrim's then sell again for an even bigger profit.

Come on people its not to long to wait, and then you can make an informed decision rather than an mm's speculative forced one.
Chris.