Universe Share Discussion Threads

[papalpower] 16/1/2006 09:28

Now you see, a few buys and up it goes, so was the push downward due to a massive overhang of stock ? or was it just clearing up the weak holders ahead of an end January trading update ? Time will answer that question.

[papalpower] 16/1/2006 08:54

GHF nice rise on RCG I see, you might like to take a look at VSC, on a breakout and news is expected soon in the form of a trading update I hope.

[papalpower] 16/1/2006 07:47

GHF yes I saw the RCG announcement today, very good ! Thanks for the advance notice.

Although Torex mention it, they do not go into much detail, and of course UNG has some glowing recommendations on their products, HTEC is not a jack of all trades and master of none, it is very good for the area it works in.

[glasshalfull] 16/1/2006 07:37

Hi PP

Any view on the Torex statement? They don't go into too much detail.

Thanks for the email which I found very useful. Hope my flagging of RCG the other day was beneficial.


Regards
GHF

[papalpower] 16/1/2006 07:29

Yes, all taken scrip, so a vote of confidence again in the future.

RNS Number:9440W
Universe Group PLC
16 January 2006
UNIVERSE GROUP PLC
("Universe" or the "Company")

Result of the scrip alternative and Director shareholdings

Universe, the retail and information systems company, today announces that,
under the Company's Scrip Dividend Scheme, shareholders representing 25.3% of
the ordinary shares have elected to receive shares in lieu of cash in respect of all or part of the Interim Dividend for the six months to 30 June 2005. Under the terms of the Scrip Dividend, electing shareholders receive new ordinary shares of 5p each ("New Ordinary Shares") at an effective price of 18.9 pence per share in lieu of the interim dividend of 0.25 pence per share.

As a result, a total 205,232 New Ordinary Shares have been allotted. Application has been made for the New Ordinary Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM and dealings are expected to commence on 19 January 2006.

The following Directors elected to receive the Scrip Dividend alternative in
respect of their entire shareholdings and as a result their shareholdings are:

Previous Scrip Current Percentage

Ray Mackie 8,417,327 95,070 8,512,397 13.48%
Barrie Brinkman 874,579 11,568 886,147 1.40%
Catherine Wines 240,051 3,174 243,225 0.39%
Adrian Grinsell 59,751 790 60,541 0.10%
Eddie Paul 50,595 668 51,263 0.08%
Keith Buchanan 39,015 516 39,531 0.06%

For further information:

Universe Group plc 020 7287 0888
Ray Mackie, Group Chief Executive

Charles Stanley & Co Limited 020 7739 8200
Russell Cook

[glasshalfull] 16/1/2006 07:21

Good to see you giving these a look as well maximoney.

Trading update from Torex Retail this morning:-




In relation to the UK they have to say,

"New business success with blue chip retailers particularly for performance management, PETROL and retail pharmacy solutions".


As UNG's main competitors I have to say that this is my major concern in that UNG appear to concentrate solely on the petrol market and I have concerns that Torex will squeeze them.
They had lower margins in the 1st half and if Torex are winning business this may lead to ongoing margin pressure.

Agree that they look cheap though but for the moment I'm still on the sidelines.

Almost forgot, UNG announced that Directors all took up the Scrip alternative of approx 100k shares. A vote of confidence.


Regards
GHF

[maximoney1] 16/1/2006 00:47

Yes, looks like the time to pick them up now.....can see these aiming for 34.5p in 12months time.....

would still try and get in at 17p though

maxi :0)

[papalpower] 13/1/2006 10:52

GHF just picked myself up a little bit more, 20K at 17.25p

Well worth it, if things are going as normal then this MM drop down will end in the next 14 days, as they will be expecting a trading update end of January ahead of the March prelim results.

All news flow from UNG is good so far, so there is no reason to doubt that progress is not in line with FY targets.

[papalpower] 13/1/2006 06:47

GHF thanks for that, RCG is already on my watchlist but not in as yet, observing and watching.

UNG, give me a bit of time and I will send you some information, in the meantime I would say a phone call with Ray Mackie would be a good idea, they are not in closed period yet I think, and therefore I am sure you could arrange a chat with him.

I am quite sure they are working to sell off Master Change, as we are now in the new financial year I can see it happening. It is inclined but not officialy said that they will be offloading Master Change as its profitable and would be a good buy for someone else in this business, and as you say, offloading it would basically clear the debt and provide focus for UNG.

[glasshalfull] 13/1/2006 06:10

Cheers PP - I'll not dive in just yet.

Went over the figures again and like the look of the cash generation reported at the interim stage.
Once they offload Master Change then I'm sure that if existing cash generation continues plus the proceeds from a sale would result in the elimination of debt, provide a clear focus and surely lead to a re rating.
Think that a phone call to the company might be required to help me decide the growth the company expect to generate in the next couple of years. This is still key to me making any investment here (other than a small punt).

O/T
I took the opportunity to top up my holding in RCG yesterday and think it may be a company that appeals to you having observed your nom de plume in various company threads that I have an interest in. Some good information and decent research (mainly) from Rivaldo.... BUT don't bring any of your friends from the LEAD thread should you decide to make an investment.


Kind regards
GHF

[papalpower] 12/1/2006 16:15

GHF L2 is weakening, therefore there might be some chances to top up or take a holding at around the 16p level soon :)

[papalpower] 11/1/2006 16:14

They are accumulating I think, if you try to put an order in for 40,000 shares, they will quote you 18p to buy, the most you can get at around 17.5p now is 25K volume.

Still think its unreal weakness to panic possible sellers to sell.

Watch this over the coming 12 weeks, by results it should be in the 25p area is what I think.

The moment they put it down to 17p offer, I will place a 50K buy order, but I think they will not do that, and its why L2 is still 3 v 1, they are sucking up sells.

[papalpower] 11/1/2006 15:54

GHF I cannot advise, all I can say is I am confident earnings growth will be there and more to come.

What I hope is that Master Change is sold off this year, that clears the debt, gives more working cap and will be a major rerating reason.

Do not forget that working cap will be much better following the sale of First Remit, the sale was done in the second half, so the interim figures do not show the sale of First Remit in them, this will only appear on the books at prelims.

If you do join in UNG at some time in the future, let us know.

[glasshalfull] 11/1/2006 15:44

Thanks for the quick response.....17.37p online I'm currently being quoted.

Debating whether to jump in....half now half later....or wait on the sidelines for the timebeing.

As I said yesterday, it is undervalued but after taking account net debt of £3M or so, I'm not sure of the upside in the short term & I still feel the company has to prove there is substantial growth going forward.

In a quandry with this one !


Thanks all the same.


Regards
GHF

[papalpower] 11/1/2006 15:39

GHF

L2 is 3 v 1 17 v 17.5

But you should be able to buy at mid or just over at the moment so 17.25 or 17.3 to buy presently I would think.

[glasshalfull] 11/1/2006 15:35

PP

Are you able to provide me with a Level 2 update.

Currently being quoted just over mid on the offer.


Regards
GHF

[papalpower] 11/1/2006 00:01

Thanks for your comments GHF.

A different way of looking at it is the OP of HTEC, which should be around 2.75 million. On a sale basis based on operating profit multiple then HTEC is worth well over 20 million as a stand alone.

The loyalty business should be about exponential growth, that was the idea, the proof will be in the figures coming in the next 24months :)

[glasshalfull] 10/1/2006 21:59

Thanks for responding PP.

I agree that it is difficult to predict future growth, and it's this fact that's preventing me from investing in UNG for the time being.

I try to evaluate whether a company has a market leading product, for example, and what its growth potential will be several years down the line or whether it can develop other income streams.

I'm currently have holdings in BDI and PGB as I feel that they have the market leading product and there are plenty of areas where each can grow while their shareprice should be underpinned by the recurring revenue streams each has developed.

I have difficulty in predicting where UNG will grow from here.
They certainly have developed good products as customers such as ASDA and Morrisons testify too, but once the Chip and Pin roll out is complete then will the loyalty business, or any of the other businesses for that matter, take up the slack.

Suppose it's a case of you pays your money....

At 17.25p (with an incredibly tight spread for once) the Mkt Cap is £10.67M.
The company had great cashflow during the 1st half which reduced net debt to £3.370M.
I believe that the Finals will show good growth during 2005 with the further HydraPos orders from ASDA helping to underpin these and help get 2006 off to a good start.
Yes, these are undervalued and if you believe that the 2006 forecast of EPS 2.3p will be met then a Mkt Cap of £20M, share price of 30p, could very well be on the cards.
On watching the Ray Mackie interview I was left with the impression though that business was tough out there and that the likes of Torex could spoil UNG's party.

Anyway, whether or not I join you in this one PP, I certainly wish you the best of luck. I intend to do more digging - and soon - as I suspect that the 17.5p offer won't last too long. Just have too many concerns at the moment.


Kind Regards
GHF

[rabbrooks] 10/1/2006 17:29

I HAVE COMMENTED HERE SEVERAL TIMES THAT THE MASTER CHANGE BUSINESS HAS NO SYNERGY WITH MAIN BUSINESS. IF UNG IS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY THEY NEED TO STREAMLINE OR SELL OUT .SHARE SALES ARE TOO VOLATILE TO GIVE ANY CONFIDENCE TO ANYONE, WE ARE BEING MANIPULATED BY THE PRO'S

[papalpower] 10/1/2006 16:43

Glasshalfull with new products, new loyalty schemes and new systems, I feel sure they can continue to grow. The same question can of course be asked of any company, the answer is only there when the figures are released.

The perception of what UNG is has changed with the sale of First Remit, and the sooner they sell off Master Change, the better things will be for an HTEC only UNG.

A valuation of HTEC, I would say its worth well over 20 million based on a multiple of operating profit.

The key thing this year is the figures in the results and the outlook statement. Growth there and decent profits, then there is no reason why UNG cannot break into 30p territory this year.

Future growth years away, I cannot comment on, but I do see growth in the short and mid term, and generation of higher profits at UNG.

I will be interested in the broker figures for 2007 after prelim results are released in March, we can then judge their feelings on growth in 2007.

[glasshalfull] 10/1/2006 16:13

Hi PP

I'm in LEAD where I admire you in keeping the BB going.

I've had these on my watch list for some time but haven't as yet taken the plunge, although I think 17.5p is an excellent price.

UNG focus solely on the petrol forecourt business (forget Master Change as I'm sure that will be sold in due course). Just don't know if they have the growth potential, year in year out. I'm sure the 2005 results will be good but can they grow the business in 2006?

I'd appreciate your thoughts.


Regards
GHF

[papalpower] 10/1/2006 16:03

This is what you call an MM screwing the offer down to try to get some holders to panic sell. Since when did UNG ever have a spread this low ;)

[papalpower] 10/1/2006 12:04

They picked up a few this morning, I am now hovering as to buy some more now, or wait a little longer to see if that offer price will lower a little more, or another X trade comes in and it goes up.