Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[madengland] 17/10/2011 09:54

I wonder if news on Zaedyus is imminent!

[85gary] 17/10/2011 07:49

My understanding is Zaedyus and Montserrado are the game changing exploration wells with news expected on the latter soon and further news expected on the former after a sidetrack having been already declared a massive find.

[ben chod] 16/10/2011 18:28

onlyif tullow wereaone trick pony clearly Uganda isnt the be and end allof this company just look at the expo chart above Zaedyus came in good

[wodahsnoom] 16/10/2011 18:21

Been away for a while - I would have thought the UG developments would have dented the share price but it has moved north. Is this speculation om Montserrado?

[ringer12] 16/10/2011 10:26

I like the way that "expediting" something in Uganga means that it will omly take a month instead of three months!

[eipgam] 14/10/2011 14:19

short video news article.... everything looks calm in Liberia but may go to a second vote.

[ringer12] 14/10/2011 11:34

What's the next revelation? Hopefully not a revolution.

[eipgam] 14/10/2011 10:45

are the brakes off now?

[tomgorham12] 14/10/2011 09:44

Touch of schadenfruede about the possibility of Onek going, even if he no longer has direct influence on oil.

[zingaro] 13/10/2011 20:20

mary: filtered

[eipgam] 13/10/2011 19:27

re last line.... that would be a turn-up if the deals were to be signed this week. Nobody has said they won't.....

[sillyname] 13/10/2011 14:00

Yes, a downgrade of 20p is damn good going considering all that's happened on the Uganda front during the past few weeks.

[85gary] 13/10/2011 13:31

Just saw that myself Sillyname. Good to see only 20p trim for Ugandan troubles, but I note both Jefferies and UBS reflect on financing implications as time drifts. I guess if the big result comes in Montserrado Zeadyus and accelerated drilling results from partners pressure increases. Can't be such a bad thing huh?

[sillyname] 13/10/2011 13:15

Turning to the oil sector, UBS analyst Melanie Savage reiterates a "buy" recommendation for Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) but trimmed its 12 month price target to 1700 pence (from 1720 pence).

This is put down to expectations of a slight delay in the start-up and subsequent ramp-up of operations in Uganda after the country's parliament voted to delay the approval of the Tullow farm-out until an oil law has been passed.

Savage says UBS thinks the main concern is around financing implications if the deal does not complete this year but feels this is overdone as the firm has cash flow from Ghana and credit facilities to plug any gap.

"Tullow remains one of our top picks in the E&P sector alongside Cove and Chariot," she says.

[eipgam] 13/10/2011 11:45

I think it took a great deal of effort for the TLW team to counteract the enthusiasm for the ENI deal by various members of the govt. A great deal of effort... which I am confident stopped short of greasing palms. It seems that nobody outside of Uganda is taking the suggestions of TLW bribery at all seriously.

[85gary] 13/10/2011 10:53

Thanks for replies.....interesting how Jeffries view.

[billytkid2] 13/10/2011 10:30

Jeffries target is £18

[biggerthus] 13/10/2011 10:29

85gary,
This is in line with what I heard from those on the ground at the time.

what happened when ENI suddenly got involved

[eipgam] 13/10/2011 10:29

thanks btk2... by inference, Jefferies current NAV is approx 4 x 328p

[billytkid2] 13/10/2011 10:20

This from jeffries yesterday:

Key Takeaway
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Ugandan lawmakers, from across the
political divide, voted to support a motion compelling the Government to stay
the approval of Tullow Oil's $2.9bn farm down of its Ugandan assets (Blocks
1, 2 & 3a) to Total (FP FP, €35.71, Buy) and China's CNOOC (883 HK, HK13.86,
Hold) amid the ongoing tax disputes and new graft allegations.
Buy especially on any excessive weakness, Montserrado results imminent.
Visibility on the deal closing in the near to medium term is limited however we believe the
will of Total and CNOOC is to gain access to the project, with integration of operating teams
and development planning on-going. We believe the deal will be completed, bringing in
the necessary experience to develop the midstream and downstream components of the
project, and also injecting $2.9bn cash into the company.
What is the value of Uganda and impact of further delay? Our current asset value
for Uganda is 129p/sh (net TLW, assuming 33.33% W.I. post farm down), plus 199p (cash
of $2.9bn), bringing a combined total value of 328p/sh or 24% of our group NAV. Worst
case, we estimate if the development of the project is delayed by a further 12 months, this
would decrease our NAV by c.2% to 3%.
Funded to end 2012, operating cashflow of c.$1,500m in 2011, supported by
Jubilee and producing assets. TLW's net debt position at end 1H 2011 was $2.6bn, with
current headroom of $700m. Overall, total facilities were increased in 1H11 by US$800m to
US$3.95bn. TLW has in place 3 facilities (1) an RBL facility of $2.5bn which was increased
to US$3bn (semi-annual payment, maturity date 31 Dec 2015), (2) a revolving credit facility
of US$650m, which expires on December 31 2011, and (3) a new facility of $300m. In the
worst case scenario, if the Ugandan deal is not completed, we estimate the company will be
short funding by end 2012 at current levels of expenditure. We expect funds could be raised
through either a new debt facility, or a potential farm out of other valuable assets including
Enyenra /Tweneboa, for example.
Montserrado exploration drilling. Results anticipated 3rd week of October.
Montserrado, Liberia, Block LB-15, has been described by Tullow Oil, as its '...second big
swing of the bat....', second only to the successful Zaedyus result in French Guiana. When
complete, the APC operated Discoverer Spirit is expected to drill Jupiter and Mercury (Seirra
Leone).
Montserrado is testing a c.650mmbbl (P10, pre-drill) stratigraphic fan, which
is truly 'Jubilee-like' in age (Turonian), scale and seismic signature (gas chimmney, oil
water cut off). Although the Liberian Basin is still frontier, this is now a proven hydrocarbon
basin, with material follow up prospects covered by 3D seismic. We value a Montserrado
success case (+100ft net pay), for TLW (21p/ 83p, +5%). Derisking of follow on prospectivity
also has the potential to add a further 3% - 5% to the NAV.
Valuable barrels, looking for at least 250mmbbl minimum threshold to
underwrite a Montserrado FPSO development. We are valuing a Montserrado barrel
at $7.45/bbl (26% IRR, assuming US$85/bbl long term brent), compared with $9.55/
bbl (29%) for French Guiana. We assume 2017 first oil, 120kbopd FPSO and respective
Government state take and respective project conditions (c.1,100m vers 2,000m water
depth).

[85gary] 13/10/2011 09:25

My take on current Uganda situation for what it is worth, do your own research imo etc.,

The present UG discussions are a bit of a smokescreen, as Tullow are above board and are not involved in bribes, but I can only imagine having followed what happened when ENI suddenly got involved that ENI had the ear and support of Onek and others. Why and how was this possible when, as Museveni said, China is the route to follow and was supportive of Tullow to buy out Heritage and farm down to CNOOC and Total.

I think Museveni is under pressure and is happy for ministers to be accused knowing nothing happened there from Tullow. (ENI, look more involved to me with these three guys, but only my opinion). Museveni is trying to regain control of power that is slipping away from him. My bet is he is tolerating parliment discussion, and will make a speech to say this is the best way to proceed.

Storm in a teacup to ensure everything is out in the open and gives Museveni the chance to say in best interest of nation not to delay etc., If he plays his cards right we get a big bounce.

Although interesting (to me), too much focus here deflects from other important Tullow interests imo. Any ideas on timing Montserrado and Zaedyus info?