Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[eipgam] 07/9/2011 18:56

= 256p + tax resolution with UG/HOIL + Total/CNOOC cash + current SP

wow... what a coincidence! It equals £18.

[85gary] 07/9/2011 18:43

Just need a few results to come in and we are away.....

We think the market's eager anticipation of the Zaedyus and Montserrado wells neatly sums up Tullow's investment proposition at present: as the UK's largest exploration and production company, it simply needs another 'elephant' discovery in order to keep investors interested and maintain the hefty premium at which it trades relative to core net asset value.

For potential 'elephants' we look to upcoming wells Zaedyus in French Guiana (+53p a share potential), Jaguar in Guyana (+58p a share potential), Monteserrado in Liberia (+38p a share potential), Jupiter and Mercury in Sierra Leone (+21p a share potential), and two wells in Cote d'Ivoire (+86p a share potential).

[eipgam] 07/9/2011 17:53

I'm feeling optimistic after the Genel/Hayward tie up (Although it has yet to get approval from the KRG).... it shows there is big money about for big oil.

Roll on £18.

[ben chod] 07/9/2011 15:12

divi increasing too!

[sogoesit] 07/9/2011 08:34

Thanks for interesting insights Bushwhacker...

[muckshifter] 07/9/2011 08:10

$2.9b is roughly the same as the £1.8b 85Gary quoted in the first place. Just shows how bored we all are with the waiting when there are so many posts about something as simple as that!
Regards.

[85gary] 07/9/2011 08:02

2.9bn it is........apologies. Right sentiment wrong figure....

[bushwhacker] 07/9/2011 02:03

Extract from UBS report towards end of August

""n Exploration set to become dominant force once again
With the expectation of receiving $2.9bn cash for the sale of its Ugandan assets, coupled with growing cashflows from Jubilee, Tullow looks to be in a relatively comfortable position. This has important implications as it means that Tullow, in answer to investor concerns that it is becoming too much like a production and development company, has both the will and the way to start behaving more like an exploration company...
n De-risking new basin produces cascade effect
...Tullow will drill over 40 wells in the next 12 months in a range of new basins. If any of the frontier wells are successful, Tullow is able to play very well to its strength, i.e. de-risking and aggressively exploring the basin. The company now has the resources to do this on a larger scale.
n Catalysts plentiful in September
This September, we expect drilling results from the Monteserrado well in Liberia (21p upside, 9p downside), and the long awaited Zaedyus well in French Guiana (40p upside, 10p downside). Additionally, Tullow guides that the Uganda deal should complete next month upon final approval of the Ugandan government.
n Valuation: Buy, trimming price target to 1650p
We are cutting our NAV by 4% to 1480p, making minor adjustments. We set our price target at a c10% premium to NAV for management quality. Tullow is trading at a 36% discount to $95 NAV, and a 15% premium to core NAV. Changes to EPS reflect a reduction in 2011 production guidance.""

I have several repórts from my fund manager- all of them BUY or hold with targets well in excess of the current price. Valuations of NAV vary a lot depending on how they have calculated it! But for sure at the current level it remains a core investment in my portfolio and opportunity is still here for good iupside potential.
Hope this helps.

[niceyman1] 06/9/2011 23:21

I think its worth 50p to tullow but worth alot more in the long run as it will change sentiment. By the way its $2.9 billion!

[pigeon1] 06/9/2011 20:36

Yes Zadeyus is a big well.

What do we think its realistically worth to TLW in this mkt? 50p upside?

[85gary] 06/9/2011 17:22

I'd take upbeat drilling results from Zaedyus and Montserrado wells for sure.

Cofirmation of receipt of £1.8billion from sale of Uganda assets to CNOOC and Total would be nice.

Oh, and I'm hoping to see some despondent Ugandans wondering round the city this week.

[zingaro] 06/9/2011 16:11

From CHART TRADER on TIAE BB

1130 GMT [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse cuts its target price for Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) to 1437p from 1527p, citing the end of frontier exploration in Ghana. The company needs another sizeable discovery to satisfy investors and maintain the hefty premium at which it trades relative to its core net-asset value. In Kenya, it adds, "resource estimates could gradually build up from any initial discovery, similar to Uganda." The rating on the stock remains at outperform. Shares are up 0.1% at 1076p.

[niceyman1] 06/9/2011 14:56

Meeting in london til end of week. If they can settle on tax dispute out of court this week then its possible for the uganda deal to be sorted next week?
I think the market is anticipating the zaedeus result first!

[pigeon1] 06/9/2011 14:48

what chance of uganda this week?

[niceyman1] 06/9/2011 14:12

Volume starting to pick up!

[poppet123] 05/9/2011 10:09

Spec7
if WSX goes up, am I right in thinking there is also a connection with BBE, maybe you could enlighten me please ?

[85gary] 05/9/2011 07:55

Assuming Total have had plenty of time to ensure funds in place for Uganda, I wonder if this is to help set the scene, along with Tullow, for extensive exploration to continue in French Guyana?

[harrybigdick] 05/9/2011 01:36

Is £5 a possibility before any shaggers rally
Sanks

[ringer12] 04/9/2011 11:56

I am hoping that the finalisation of the CNOOC/TOTAL/TLW deal will take place in September 2011 and not 2012.

[spec7] 04/9/2011 00:03

LOL.well why your all at it have a look at WSX, if TLW strike then WSX will go up with it ;-)
EDIT...and thats a ramp :-)

[holts] 03/9/2011 21:56

hoil would seem to have a strong case , they took advice before investment and only when Uganda moved the goal posts rertospectively did the issue arise , however politics is involved so nothing is ever clear and in any case if they lose in London they will doubtless claim its Ugandan jurisdiction and re start the process there .

[muckshifter] 03/9/2011 08:56

Arbitration used to be quite common in construction contracts, but the issues are hard to distill down to a few simple issues on a major construction contract and as a result they often dragged on for ages, with the arbitrator asking for more detailed info etc. This one should be much more simple, as it seems to hang on decisions on a few principles, imho. My best guess remains about three months, unless there is a sudden surrender.

In a high court action I took part in as a sub contractor, against one of the UK's major international contractors, the judge, in a pre trial meeting with the two parties, effectively told them that they had lost 10 - 0 and "suggested" settlement terms which would avoid wasting the court's (and his) time, making it clear that the consequences if the case went on were likely to be costly.

I've never heard of such actions by an arbitrator, but in an arbitration where there are just a few simple principles to be decided upon, such as I think this one is, perhaps it is a possibility.
Regards.