Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[zingaro] 25/5/2011 15:15

Niceyman: YES, the IMS on 12th of this month gives end of july for this target !

[85gary] 25/5/2011 15:14

StockMarketWire.com - Tullow Oil reiterated overweight at Morgan Stanley, tp 1,580p.

[niceyman1] 25/5/2011 15:10

Explains the price action!Now end of summer instead of end june!

[eipgam] 25/5/2011 15:00

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) said Wednesday the massive Jubilee field off the coast of Ghana is on track to reach peak production of 120,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of summer.

Speaking to analysts on a web conference, Anadarko Vice President Operations Doug Lawler also said the company is optimistic about its ability to transition recent discoveries near Jubilee to large-scale producing assets in the next few years.

The Jubilee field, which started producing oil in December, is one of Africa's largest discoveries. It's total reserve potential is seen at nearly 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Tullow Oil PLC (TUWOY, TLW.LN) is the operator of the field with a 34.70% interest, while Anadarko and Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) each hold a 23.4913% stake. Other Jubilee co-owners include Sabre Oil and Gas, E.O. Group and state-owned Ghana National Petroleum Corp.

[droid] 25/5/2011 14:45

chart's going nowhere too. just as well I'm a long term holder.

[mccracken227] 25/5/2011 14:16

really out of favour at the moment, even with the new purchase!!!

[niceyman1] 20/5/2011 09:13

Looking now to break out from here . With news due any time now on completion of farm-in plus drilling reports from uganda and Ghana teak downdip should be some movement to the upside!

[ben chod] 18/5/2011 11:46

hoil throwing all their toys out

[eipgam] 16/5/2011 13:43

macquarie have a 1470 price target on TLW

[mpclag] 12/5/2011 08:19

All looks good to me just increased my holding by 50%.

[eipgam] 12/5/2011 07:49

IMS out. Not extremely exciting but certainly confident....

OUTLOOK

2011 is another transformational year for Tullow. Strong production growth is forecast as production significantly ramps up at Jubilee. Major development decisions are to be made for Enyenra/Tweneboa and Jubilee and a number of significant wells with basin opening potential in West Africa and South America are drilled. The completion of the Uganda transaction will enable Tullow to accelerate the basin development plan with CNOOC and Total, and begin to realise the significant potential of the region. Jubilee production revenues, together with the Uganda farm down proceeds, mean that the Group will have a very healthy balance sheet to fund significant exploration and development programmes and deliver future growth.

[85gary] 11/5/2011 15:11

Shame Tullow are not following Kosmos rise? Anything to do with Ghana refinery story?

[niceyman1] 11/5/2011 15:03

Kosmos up 6% on debut in new york 19$!

[niceyman1] 11/5/2011 09:14

Kosmos ipo priced at top end $18 per share and over subscribed.

[eipgam] 05/5/2011 13:49

could be the market.. I hope.... it's a nasty drop for TLW

[ben chod] 05/5/2011 12:15

somethings up....down

[85gary] 04/5/2011 15:17

I love the bit about trading just short of 1487.




FACTS: The expectation is that Tullow and its partners in the large Zaedyus prospect currently being drilled offshore French Guyana will reach the well's objectives over the next month.

ANALYSIS: We ascribe a 12.5% probability of success to the Zaedyus well, a few percentage points below guidance. While there is good seismic evidence of reservoir, this will be the first well into the prospect and establishing the presence of a source is still believed to be a significant risk. This analysis produces a valuation of 8p per share risked and 65p per share unrisked. While oil in good reservoir is the hoped-for outcome - with the significant upside this would imply for the licence and acreage position in general - 'failure' could come in a couple of different shapes. One is that the well encounters water-bearing reservoir with no evidence of oil; alternatively, a much better 'failure' would be if only thin or very poor reservoir was found but with evidence of hydrocarbons in the system.

Tullow previously had a 97% stake in the French Guyana licence but farmed down to 27.5% with Shell/Total carrying Tullow to the value of a little over $100m in the current programme. The site selection for the well, which was clearly pinpointed by all the partners following analysis post-seismic acquisition, is believed to be in the 'up-dip' part of the structure. A successful well in a 'down-dip' location would initially point to a larger hydrocarbons accumulation but clearly there would also be a greater risk of just hitting water.

Post-Zaedyus it is possible that the ENESCO 8503 rig being used to drill Zaedyus could be available again because Cobalt International, the next lessee of the rig after the Zaedyus well, is waiting on final approval from the BOEMRE (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement) to drill a well in the Gulf of Mexico.

DAVY VIEW: Tullow is trading at a small discount to our 1487p NAV (based on a $85 long-run oil price). However, its South American programme, for which we hope Zaedyus is the starting point, as well as its programmes in the Liberian basin, offshore Mauritania and (as we go into 2012) in Kenya/Ethiopia are all major projects - with very large-scale factors and the relative impact these could have on valuations. Consequently, these programmes have the scope to fundamentally change the profile and valuation of the company once more. While maintaining the exploration success of recent years presents challenges, we think that the company has a balanced and exciting exploration portfolio, and a particular focus/expertise in the geological formations that have delivered such success to date. .

[tobythedogk] 02/5/2011 19:53

Nothing will happen in Uganda for another 2 years at least. They will have to get rid of museveni first. I hope Tullow are courting besigye now as he will be in charge soon. Before that there will be big 'wahalla'.

[85gary] 02/5/2011 17:51

refinery a step closer.

[ringer12] 18/4/2011 17:29

AS usual it all revolves around technicalities and interpretation.The fall in the Hoil share price seems to suggest that TLW have the better case. Lets hope so but can you have any confidence in any market reaction? As I see it either one side or the other falls for the lot plus lawyers fees...no 50/50 split, unless they opt for an out of court settlement.