Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 02/6/2024 09:03

Understand your concern Cashandcard

Kosmos 9/5/23
CEO Andy Inglis said

The executive said the Jubilee field had around 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent recoverable, of which less than 40% had been recovered thus far.

They drilled what they thought was the sweet spot of the reservoir

August 2010
Kosmos Energy announced it had cancelled a deal to sell its stakes in Ghana's Jubilee oilfield to ExxonMobil, an accord that met fierce resistance within the West African state.
Exxon showed interest i take as a positive.

Tullow are now planning to carry out a 4D survey to support future drilling and the rig is unlikely to return before next summer.

Tullow could not attract a partner for TEN which then brought about the debt pile.
and plenty of work to do given the current production level,

OPEC meet today so hope positive news may get Tullow back over 40P

Despite moving Sunday's oil output decision-making meeting online, several OPEC+ ministers plan to fly to Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh, two OPEC+ sources said.
OPEC oil-producing nations plus others including Russia make up OPEC+, which is set to decide its production policy for the remainder of 2024 and possibly next year.

[cashandcard] 01/6/2024 21:31

Subsurface,One of the reasons I have always been reluctant to invest in Tullow, even at the current price, I fear a day they eventually announce reserve writedowns at both Jubilee and TEN. They have not performed anywhere near nameplate, and only got close at Jubilee due to intervention work over the years.Cash

[up just a little bit] 01/6/2024 17:56

Ground zero. Lets see what transpires moving forward. A slow process. Granted but a necessary one to reduce debt. The hedge funds can obviously see what the intention is and that's why the positions are being closed.

[tas11osc] 01/6/2024 17:43

@xxnjr.

The current underperformance of both Jubilee and Ten reservoirs is certainly disappointing, But I wonder whether in future years when - and if - these issues are resolved and production improves we look back and be grateful that the wells were not producing at higher capacity while company revenue was held back because of disadvantageous hedging. Which expired yesterday.

[subsurface] 01/6/2024 17:23

Remember you only make a loss when you sell them.

[up just a little bit] 01/6/2024 17:20

Good points. I'm sure that the management team have had better days/years. Certainly from the days of fantastic share values. They are in a tricky situation right now. African politics weighing them down but realistically paying down the debt is the only certainty they have and this will stand them in good stead. There must be many with losses who are not happy and I appreciate that. Personally I am very happy with a return of 30 + %. There is more to come from where I'm sitting.

[xxnjr] 01/6/2024 16:37

Well if the company wastes time by not talking about the thing that matters (producing oil) and instead spends an inordinate amount of time talking about ESG, Shared Prosperity, Environmental Stewardship, Safety and "Earning a reputation for Trust, equality and transparency" then their presentations and annual reports should at least reflect these values by being transparent.

The above are important topics but shouldn't dominate communications and proceedings. We need to get back to basics. Honest and open communication. Concentrate on the basics; the operating performance of the fields. Give out realistic targets. Future work plans. Proper explanations for failings like water injection and recent wells under performance.

For example I shouldn't have to write to the company and ask them that in the light of recent well underperformance; are they planning to conduct a seismic survey to better understand Jubilee reservoirs? and if so, when might we expect the rig to return?

Well the answer is Yes. Tullow are planning to carry out a 4D survey to support future drilling and the rig is unlikely to return before next summer.

i.e there will be a seismic survey, shot and processed before future drilling plans are firmed up.

Aside from that, in general, we tend to get more realistic impressions of how things are going from our partners, rather than from our CEO.

[subsurface] 01/6/2024 16:01

I have been in Tullow 20years for the first circa 18 never said a negative word about them
started to change and not see things through Rose coloured spectials,try to report on the positive and the negative took so long as Ifound it hard to invest in them on one hand and pull them down on the other.
No Axe to grind had my chances could of sold at circa 16 pounds and could of bought at 8p
Think the flare has been going 4 years plus new flare tip.part of the measured response.

In the absence of a flaring agreement, Tullow has little choice but to inject the unwanted gas back into the reservoirs, a process which could compromise their stability and weigh on production, according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly.

Jubilee Nameplate capacity 120,000bbls/d Ten 80,000bbls/d we are circa 95,000 and 20,000 with great uptime?


report 2020

[up just a little bit] 01/6/2024 14:57

You don't seem to be much of a fan of TLW.

[xxnjr] 01/6/2024 14:41

One of the company's more amusing claims made in their recent AGM Presentation under the "2023 Sustainability Performance/environmental stewardship" category on slide 7 is

34% reduction in total water consumption

wouldn't it be funny if that was a result of the water injection system on Jubilee under performing for quite a lot of 2023?

I thought the objective was to increase water injection, not reduce it.

I'm sure it doesn't, but would be even stranger if the apparently marvellous reduction in water usage results in more CEO options being granted under "sustainibility" KPI's!!!!

[up just a little bit] 01/6/2024 13:50

Hence Tullows Net Zero Pathway RNS. No panic just a measured response.

[subsurface] 01/6/2024 12:19

With all the Technology and Satellite systems its no longer easy to hide the Flaring imagine if Ghana removed the permission to flare.
Tullows Ghana project should have been thought out from cradle to grave,they were only focused on Oil and gave the Gas free.
GNGC should take a share of the responsibility to as operators of the gas grid
perhaps Tullow are starting to panic.
Lucky Ten is not in full production? from a gas prospective even more gas to deal with.

[xxnjr] 01/6/2024 11:02

Ever wondered who one of the worlds highest polluting oil companies is? as measured by kgs of Co2 emitted/boe produced? Here's a clue. According to p.34 latest annual report TLW's emissions were

2020: 29 kg CO2e/boe
2021: 35 kg CO2e/boe +20%
2022: 37 kg CO2e/boe +5.7%
2023: 40 kg CO2e/boe +8.1%

That is
4X higher than Saudi Aramco!!!! (10.7 CO2e/boe) Would never have thought that!!!!
2.67X higher than Petrobras (brasil) (15.0 CO2e/boe)
1.42X higher than Seplat(nigeria) and Pertamina (indonesia) (28.0 CO2e/boe)

Seems TLW is one of the dirtiest oilers on the planet!

Data extracted from p9. of M et P's 'Présentation - Assemblée Générale Mixte du 28 mai 2024', available here

[hojjat] 31/5/2024 17:37

When shorters start noticing the large trades and price rise, they will start covering their position.

I think it will happen as soon as it passes 45p level

Any other ideas?

[up just a little bit] 31/5/2024 16:58

Hefty trade!

[xxnjr] 31/5/2024 16:36

Interesting UT at the end!

[xxnjr] 31/5/2024 16:21

My gut feel. There's nothing happening in Kenya. If Total Energies, the least indebited IOC on the planet and state owned CNOOC are having difficulty financing and insuring their Uganda pipeline, how on earth does anyone expect Tullow, one of the most indebted small "E&P's" on the planet, to farm out/finance/construct/insure a pipeline that runs through a "diverse range of eco-systems" and is fairly close to Somalia. And drill 400 wells into said "eco-system"?

[wellbutpoor] 31/5/2024 15:59

An interesting spike earlier.

Funds available to buy back, but keeping my powder dry for now.

Anticipate a pull back as profit taking from this leg up sets in, with a view to buying back in around the 36p support level.

It's clear this is in an uptrend (no news of a FTSE250 promo), but could be confidence in the Kenyan situation.

After a little breather, the next push could take it into 50p territory.

[xxnjr] 31/5/2024 12:36

Top 4 shareholders here, are

Samuel Dossou-Aworet: 16.80%
Azvalor Asset Management: 16.47%
RWC Asset Management: 5.09%
Summerhill Trust Company (Isle of Man) Limited: 4.19%

Summerhill Trust are a bit of a mystery

[xxnjr] 31/5/2024 12:16

Rahul Dhir Bonus watch

TLW 2024 YTD: 1.94%

Comparator Group

Africa Oil: 0.80%
Capricorn: -10.70%
Energean: 16.70%
Enquest: 4.22%
Harbour Energy: 2.87%
Kosmos Energy: -11.27%
Pharos Energy: 2.67%
Seplat Energy: 68.77%
BW Energy $650m: 22.15%
Diversified Energy: -2.54%
Maurem et Prom: 17.71%

Average of group: 10.13%

Most of the above, apart from Kosmos, I think pay divis as well.

(So far) TLW near the bottom. Kosmos are bottom due to BP operated delays on Tortue FLNG Senegal coming onstream.

Maurel et Prom (+17.71%) own 20.46% of Seplat (+68.77%)

PIEP (PT Pertamina Internasional EP) own 71.84% of Maurel et Prom

[xxnjr] 31/5/2024 11:30

nothing personal, mate.
kirk 6 31 May '24 - 11:19 - 60081 of 60081 (Filtered)

[kirk 6] 31/5/2024 11:19

Bought some todayAlso While we wait take a look at Indus Gas (INDI) it's stupid cheap and easy a 300-400% gainer in the short term

[xxnjr] 31/5/2024 11:10

No such issues for Seplat +10% this am. It seems their 2022 deal to acquire Exxon's onshore acreage in Nigeria is edging towards the finishing line



Seplat's 2nd largest shareholder are Petrolin with 81m shares (13.77%)

Petrolin is owned by Samuel Dossou-Aworet

Samuel Dossou-Aworet is also TLW's largest shareholder with 243.6m shares (16.8%)

In 2004 TLW bought Energy Africa from Samuel Dossou-Aworet.

Energy Africa was the gift that kept giving for TLW as a lot of TLW's African production in the intervening 20 yrs came from those assets.

If it goes through Seplat will be quite a large producer.

It helps to have friends in Africa! But it seems we didn't receive an invite.

[seagreen] 31/5/2024 10:44

Seems African oil focused companies might be the best place to be with all the deluded Western Green politicians beating their chests about renewables replacing oil tomorrow it will take huge investment and a lot of time. Kier Slime ball Starmer is spoutng rubbish as though he can press a button and reduce energy costs over night.

Rather delicious irony if Uganda can regain its financial status ruined by its former dictator by exporting oil to the west for example.

Hey ho.