Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[wellbutpoor] 16/5/2024 17:42

An interesting day, with some excellent commentary - this is a great BB with plenty of knowledge and well rounded discussion.

I would agree that TLW might appear expensive in terms of enterprise value.

I would also agree that today's results did not inspire - particularly underwhelming was the schoolboy error around output.

The ability of the BOD's also appears questionable - particularly around comms.

But the market largely shrugged these concerns off....reinforcing the fact that TLW has strong support in the market at present.

Bonds are strong, little evidence of shorting activity and debt is under control.

Yes there are some operational challenges, but the belief must be there that these can be overcome and improved on.

At 0730 I was considering selling out with a 35p stop. However, I opted to stay in the game a while longer to see what develops.

[badger36] 16/5/2024 16:49

Great buy AhOver 1.1 m

[up just a little bit] 16/5/2024 16:02

I think it was a good idea not to go. You might have had to take a pair of boxing gloves!

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 14:45

That's good Up Just. And you're up in a relatively short time frame. I've been in the company about 20 yrs. Did OK, as sold at a good time. Occasionally re-enter. Hoping to catch a new up trend. At the same time I give a fairly sceptical commentary based on how I see it, from my analysis of increasing gas oil ratio's, tanker loading intervals and so forth. I've always been fairly sceptical on forward guidance, general upside opportunities as sketched by our CEO. Most of which just doesn't happen. The only reliable forecasts are the ones about FCF as these tend to be set low in order to achieve share bonus targets. Dunno why they don't do that with production guidance where there's a tendency for constant downgrades. I felt the Q's on the call fell short of the mark by a long way. The BoD got off scot free. I was going to go this yr (for a first time) but just couldn't be bothered. Probably just as well as it would have been a difficult Q&A, starting with "why did we give you 9m share options on appointment, to compensate for leaving your previous employer, as the latter was wound up and closed, so presumably your options would have had no value. and part II, What exactly was the timing of events? I mean did you have knowledge Delonex were being, or about to be wound up at the time of your interview and if so were appropriate disclosures made in the selection process?

I'm sure that would have gone down well ;-) And my next 10 Q's may have soured the mood further!

ps..... I did ask IR about the 9m options once but that seemed to land on deaf ears. So I genuinely don't know the answer, or the sequence of events. Hence I'm still curious to know.

[up just a little bit] 16/5/2024 14:29

Fair enough. Where I am is quite good getting in just over 29 so happy enough for now. Perhaps mid 40's to get out.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 12:53

Up just.

zilch. Don't have any at the moment! I switched into Afentra partly in disgust at the way the company ignored the Gabon incident at the time as if it hadn't happened.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 12:48

My theory is when Rahul starts coughing/clearing his throat then take what is being said at that moment with a pinch of salt.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 12:43

Things change. TLW has a history of downgrading reserves. Watch this space.

Getting back to production. It was only 2 months ago at Annual Results Webcast that Rahul was confidently forecasting JUB production to be about 102K to 105K from April on. But now, we have

"Group working interest production in the first quarter of 2024 was c.66 kboepd, including c.7 kboepd of gas production, within the expected range for the period.
2024 Group working interest production guidance remains 62-68 kboepd, with the full-year outcome expected to be towards the lower end of the range."

66K net company equated to 93K jubilee gross in 1Q24.

New guidance (lower end) is 62K attributed to continuing Jubilee shortfalls

4K/.3898 suggests at least another 10K underperformance on Jubilee

So maybe JUB actual will average 90K, not 100K.

With (I'd imagine) further downgrades to come.

Odd share price hasn't crashed today.

Which possibly supports the "someone might be building a stake" chatter from wellbutpoor

[up just a little bit] 16/5/2024 12:41

xxnjr,
How much are you under water by?

[nobull] 16/5/2024 12:20

New shareholder here. The deaths, bad as they are, occurred on non-operated projects. We bear some of the compensation costs, but presumably are not culpable, I wonder?

Some good questions asked at the AGM. The CEO's stuff about depth of engagement with our host countries does not impress when there is a huge arbitration case against one of them that could blow a hole in our ambition to be net debt $1.4bn by ye 2024, and $1bn by ye 2025. I liked the question about how our 2p reserves might not be enough to pay back the debt and get a sustainable self-financing growth strategy in place.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 12:11

Happened in Perenco operated Gabon MCS. Not much info out there. Perenco couldn't even be bothered to update on fate of 6th missing. Presume they drowned.





Simba field remains shut in. The incident aiui is still under investigation.

[up just a little bit] 16/5/2024 12:07

Net debt reduction on target. Bodes well.

[subsurface] 16/5/2024 12:06

Ithought the same xx

Also a replacement RNS has been issued

The Group working interest production in the first quarter of 2024 figure should read c.66 kboepd and not c.59 kboepd as previously stated.

[up just a little bit] 16/5/2024 12:04

Rising through 38 now, looking strong.

[mcsean2164] 16/5/2024 11:59

Xxjnr,

Shocked to hear of six deaths. Where was blame assigned?

[up just a little bit] 16/5/2024 11:42

Price rising nicely with steady buying.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 11:19

Missed the 1st 5 mins but with 6 deaths this year I was amazed Rahul highlighted the companies safety record. Maybe he'll comment further.

[oilretire] 16/5/2024 11:18

The following amendment has been made to the 'AGM Trading Update' announcement released on 16/05/2024 at 07:00 under RNS No 6191O.The Group working interest production in the first quarter of 2024 figure should read c.66 kboepd and not c.59 kboepd as previously stated. 

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 11:17

Yes OP was down last year but add in the gas and it miraculously went up.

[thommie] 16/5/2024 11:15

Tlw just mysteriously found 7k boepd of production in q1 :)Looks like a mistake. Maybe they wanted to show gas and oil production serperately but ended up mixing them together and forgot to add the gas figure to the oil figure :)

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 10:54

At 45p Rahuls options would be worth £8m

He's only bought £450K worth of shares with cash.

On takeover at 45p Rahul would have to cough up a further

3m x Nil
3m x .2566 = £770K
3m x .5132 which would lapse

therefore his options would 'only' be worth £6.5m (not £8m).

at a cost of 450K + 770K = £1,22m and some as deferred pay.

Rahul is in total control to benefit in the above scenario whilst screwing shareholders (in above scenario). Bit like a chess game. Never trusted Private Equity types myself. Maybe Rahul is different and above won't happen.

This isn't meant to be a character assassination. I'm just "conceptualising" :)

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 10:35

@bootycall

I was thinking exactly the same. I was thinking wouldn't it be ironic if one of Rahul's Private Equity friends dropped a low ball offer of say 45p, recommended by the board and guess who ends up running the ship? Rahul of course. Rahul's options worth several millions (i'll work it out later) and all the upside of the "African M&A platform" goes to Private Equity. Screwing shareholders.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 10:29

ctc I've found the quote I referenced from Kosmos which supports your take rather more than my recollection :) But perhaps suggests some of the next 3 to 4 wells will be completed until 2026?

2023 4Q Q&A
And also, are you assuming a return of a rig to Jubilee in 2025 and onwards? That’s the first question?

"Andrew Inglis: So if you sort of conceptualize it yes, if you look at the base and the maintenance of the base, we’re looking at three quarters of a rig year in Jubilee. Now clearly, as it were that being sort of rollover. So yes, the rig would return in ’25, would maybe drilling ’26, and then a break and so on, yes. If you sort of figure it out that there’s probably three quarters of a rig year that makes sense, whereas actually this year, we’ll have sort of half of a rig year in Ghana. So yes, it does include that. It includes a similar sort of drilling program in Equatorial Guinea going forward, sort of, yes.

Neal Shah: Yes, but once every 18 months

Andrew Inglis: About once every 18 months and maybe a package of sort of three wells."

The 18 months above (I was probably thinking about) refers to Equatorial Guinea. wrt Jubilee Inglis was "conceptualising" 3/4 of a rig year which might suggest rig arrives back beginning of 2Q/2025. We'll see as nothing firm as yet.

[bootycall] 16/5/2024 10:27

In my opinion,Rahul has put the Company in play because he is losing the loyalty of his shareholder base. The good news is that will probably boost the share price because private equity will pay a decent price for these assets .