Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 15/5/2024 15:55

Let's see what they say tomorrow. We already know Jubilee is sub-par YTD. But what is the forward guidance? TEN has performed OK. And Gabon is a complete mystery. Don't be surprised if Rahul pops up on stage and miraculously says "everything is going swimmingly, exceeding expectations, I'm happy to share with you that Jubilee is over 100K", blah!, blah!, blah! and there will be a lot of guff on "shared prosperity", "host nations" (that continue to let us down) and all that padding nonsense as usual.

What we really need is concrete evidence of strong production.

[badger36] 15/5/2024 15:19

Well that's some kick in the nuts Flatters to deceive

[wellbutpoor] 15/5/2024 11:00

12 month breakout looking likely today....

Indicators all looking good.

Good luck
wbp

[xxnjr] 15/5/2024 10:18

AGM Tomorrow. This is what our CEO said last time around.



Think it's fair to say TLW missed a number of their targets.

Prod miss at Jubilee and failing to hit lower end of revised company guidance.
Thats despite drilling efficiency and costs being very good. FPSO uptime also very good.

FCF was better than projected but easily done with a low guidance number.

TEN POD and GSA: Nil points
Kenya FID: Nil points
Engagement with GRA to resolve issue out of court: Nil Points
Gabon asset swap with Perenco: Presumably an update tomorrow on the platform explosion, assuming that's not hidden from view.

SP now at a critical point. Which way will it go tomorrow?

[wellbutpoor] 14/5/2024 13:56

Could be possible that there's another buy note in circulation in support of the recent Bank Of America 55p target?

[rossifumi] 14/5/2024 12:45

Has to be a leak, some monster buys, somebody knows something that's for sure........

[rossifumi] 14/5/2024 12:41

Big buys coming through 39p paid, slowly but surely

[subsurface] 14/5/2024 11:59

April 4th Tullow website

In a significant move towards ensuring environmental sustainability and responsible resource management in Ghana's energy sector, Tullow and its Joint Venture (JV) Partners have officially signed an agreement to establish a decommissioning fund for the Jubilee Field.
This marks a pivotal moment in the management of the field, setting a precedent for future decommissioning efforts in the country. The fund, aimed at facilitating the safe shutdown and restoration of the field at the end of its production life, will receive contributions from the JV Partners in proportion to their stake in the project.

While the decommissioning process remains many years away, the process will involve dismantling and removing essential infrastructure, including the FPSO, seabed flowlines, manifolds, suction piles, and wellheads, in accordance with global standards and industry best practices.

At the signing ceremony, Deputy Managing Director of Tullow Ghana, Cynthia Lumor, emphasised the significance of collaboration and responsible stewardship in managing the decommissioning process.

Should invest the fund in Tullow shares to show confidence going forward.?

[badger36] 14/5/2024 08:21

Hope so. Just topped up at 38.5

[mirabeau] 14/5/2024 08:14

Is this breaking out?

[wellbutpoor] 13/5/2024 20:38

Bonds trading strongly:


Only 2.2% of stock held in short positions


At least one strong buyer in the market at present.

This is looking very solid at present and despite some recent concerns regarding strategic decision making, I believe the equity still offers good upside from current levels.

[up just a little bit] 13/5/2024 17:02

724128, nice buy at the close.

[wellbutpoor] 13/5/2024 16:16

Still being steadily bought, could end the session near the intra-day high.

[seagreen] 13/5/2024 16:01

Nice chart if it holds could get another leg up

[rossifumi] 13/5/2024 15:47

Must be positive news due, climbing slowly

[xxnjr] 11/5/2024 09:03

"GTG" I think is a gas turbine generator to generate electricity for either water/inj or gas injection pumps?......


One of the advantages of "GTG" over other technologies is that it's 'relatively' easy to repair in sutu, rather than requiring removal. So (not expert) presume it can be fixed 'relatively' easily.

[mccracken227] 10/5/2024 12:39

Kenya a bonus if it ever happens but we should get royalties from Uganda, fingers crossed!

[bootycall] 10/5/2024 10:11

@xxnjr The latest update suggests a hiccup in stabilising the reservoir. They obviously want to build up reservoir pressure gradually . By the time we have all panicked, production will be back to normal i feel. I would trim maybe 1-1.5k bpd from my number to be prudent if i was an analyst but as the Company has built in redundancy for this type of equipment malfunction we might be getting ahead of ourselves. Tullow has the cash flow to pay down debt and start doing deals to expand production. I do not relish the 1H performance owing to low price hedging contracts coming to an end and peak capex …but from June forward this Company should be generating buckets and buckets of cash. I think a private equity firm wouldn’t blink at paying way over current share price if all you guys lose faith. Don’t forget Kenya..I haven’t Booty

[wellbutpoor] 10/5/2024 09:54

I wonder if our buyer (Mr. 36.6p) is now satisfied?

If we can break 37p today I think it would suggest the start of the breakout run up to and through the all important 40p barrier.

Good Luck
wbp

[xxnjr] 08/5/2024 23:44

Thx for your comments markyp23,

And I concur with your reasoning! Well done for holding the senior secured which have clearly outperformed the equity. With the production underperformance to date, TLW would need to average c.104K for rest of year to hit their 100K target. That's a bit of a stretch given no new producer wells from now on. And then what happens in 2025 1H given an underlying decline rate of 25%? It's not exactly a compelling investment case at the moment given previous underperformance vs forecast. Sadly the market has zero to very low confidence in Rahul's narrative. The result being the share price is where it is.

[alfiex] 08/5/2024 12:21

It baffles me why Tullow release it's figures a week after KOS as now they have nothing to tell us. Surely they could announce the same day or even a week before

[markyp23] 08/5/2024 09:57

I agree with your analysis xx

My position is in senior secured but I wouldn’t like to be holding the equity. A lot of mouths to feed before meaningful shareholder return. I also think the GSA for 18 months is bad news (I make that $37m a year in revenue for gas). Add in uncertainty about tax case and operationally Jubilee at 92kobpd rather than the target 100 and I’m surprised equity holders can sell today for essentially the same price as two days ago. I know what I would be doing!

[xxnjr] 07/5/2024 23:47

here it is, more or less verbatim

Ghana on slide 4. Jubilee production in the first quarter was around 93,000 barrels of oil per day growth, almost 30% higher than the first quarter last year. This reflects the progress made from both the startup of the Jubilee Southeast project and the ongoing infill drilling program. Jubilee FPSO reliability, continues to remain high at approximately 99% uptime for the first quarter.

Voidage replacement was also strong in the quarter, around 110% as a result of high levels of water and gas injection. Gross Jubilee gas sales for the quarter was around 16,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Recently, the partnership agreed an 18 month extension to the Jubilee gas sales agreement for approximately $3 per MMBtu.

In the second quarter, there is some planned maintenance of the onshore plant, which receives the Jubilee gas. And this is reflected in the 2Q guidance. On TEN, gross production at 18,600 barrels of oil per day was in line with expectations, with high FPSO uptime of around 99% similar to Jubilee.

Q&A

Q.....But any additional color, you could give us on the performance in Ghana, I guess at Jubilee in particular in the quarter, just how that's fared versus your own expectations what confidence that gives you in the full year outlook? Because you had an additional oil producer online in April? If you could sort of talk to that at all and sort of exit rates what you've seen post the quarter, just to sort of frame how Ghana started the year off and the confidence that gives you for the rest of the year that that would be interesting to hear them yet?

A.....Okay, yeah, thanks, Matt. I think sort of updating you, sort of, if you look across March and April, I think, we averaged around 95,000 barrels of oil per day. So, as you say, we brought on the, recently just brought on the final producer, and we're optimizing its setup in the subsea to maximize the benefits from that. And then finally, we've got the final water injection, which is currently being drilled. And then actually, we're going to start the completion of that shortly. So I think, I think it's early days. So, as you look forward to the performance of the field over the remaining part of the year, I think there was sort of three fundamental things we're focusing on.

The first is the contribution of the recently added wells to the ramp up in rate. The second is we have really good reliability in the first quarter, I think, close to 99% on the Jubilee FPSO . So clearly, we need to maintain that high level of reliability going forward. And then I think the third one is really the most important point is around, maintaining the high levels of voidage replacement. That was a challenge, last year where, we had downtime and didn't get to 100%. Now, we sort of worked pretty good in the first quarter. We need to sort of maintain that going forward. We have had a GTG down, I think, for a couple of weeks. So we're probably, been slightly under the 110% in the last month. But that is, that's a critical factor.

So, I think it's, those are the things we're, we're focusing on. And therefore, those are the things that are going to influence the outcome across the rest of the year. All that said, the drilling has actually gone well. We've really drilled, the operators have done a great job on the drilling performance and the wells, the timing of the wells has absolutely met, our expectations. And when the final water injection is done, I think, over this program, we've probably, created probably close to six months of reduction in the overall program, which is pretty impressive. So, that's sort of where we stand today. Matt?

Q.....My second question I guess another big driver for production would be Jubilee and you just spoke to it there Andy to some degree. So taking all those various points into account you still expect that field can average 100 for the rest of the year or even higher?


A.....Again as I said you know, Mark we're doing what we said we would do which is to deliver that outcome we need to see the incremental benefit of the infill wells for the final two to finish and then optimize the system for the new well configuration and that's ongoing. So that's the first sort of variable that we need to get right.

The second is clearly you know maintaining the reliability and a good start to the year and we need to continue it. And then I think the fundamental part then is really around voidage replacement and the distribution of that water again because we're changing the patterns of offtake, because of the new wells coming in the optimization of that patent of the new sort of reservoir offtake partners is critical.

So I think there's a lot to work on Mark to deliver that outcome. Yes. The first half is in all of that is to get the wells drilled and online and we've got sort of one more to go so you know this it's you know there's work to do clearly and then we'll keep you up to-date on progress as we go through the quarter.

[xxnjr] 07/5/2024 18:41

There were a couple of Q's on the call probing confidence in Jubilee 100K production going forwards to meet guidance. Rather than "we are confident" the response outlined what would be required to reach the target, which were basically

1. Good performance from the most recent wells.
2. Maintaining uptime at the high levels seen in 1H.
3. Maintaining voidage replacement at 110% as in 1H.

In relation to 3. 'We have had a "GTG" go down in the last few weeks so we are slightly below the 110% for last month'

In relation to 1. 'Production averaged about 95K for the March/April period'

This is kind of in line with what I've seen from tanker movements, which suggested March was about 100K and April was about 90K (which was a bit concerning). Maybe due to the "GTG" going down, or (worst case scenario) the new wells aren't going to get us to 100K on a sustained basis. Anyway we'll see. Solid production numbers are what count, not utterances of CEO Rahul sadly, as those tend (imo) to be somewhat akin to Sunak saying 'we can still will the election!'

Hope I'm wrong.

[xxnjr] 07/5/2024 17:01

Looking at slide 4 of


"Interim Jubilee gas sales agreement extended for a further 18 months at ~$3/mmbtu" perhaps suggesting the much vaunted Gas Sales Agreement is unlikely to happen anytime soon!