Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 16/5/2024 08:39

Ghana Energy minister comment 15th March 2024

energy minister Matthew Opoku Prempeh told S&P Global Commodity Insights on the sidelines of an energy conference in Accra, the country's capital.

"In our basins you have to really invest to keep up with production. It's not like some other basins where once you dig, for the next 40, 50 years it pumps oil. With ours you always have to have a drilling campaign. So we are challenged when we don't get funds."

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 08:30

thx ctc1,

Had a quick listen/trawl. Unless I missed it, afaics all they said was 3 to 4 wells would be drilled when the rig, or a rig, comes back in 2025. The q's remain..... when does the rig come back? is it the same rig? Maybe if anyone going...... ask this Q.

SP reaction would seem to support wbp's view.
(I was expecting a fall based on reduced production guidance that I feel maybe reduced again going forwards. FCF maintained is the saving grace of course). But I thought this was, whilst useful, perhaps a little desperate

"An increase of $10/bbl across the year to $90/bbl would generate an additional c.$100 million of free cash flow"

I make ave brent loading price of 13 loadings to date about $83.50. To ave $90 for whole year would require Brent to average about $93.25 for remainder of year.

[julian1000] 16/5/2024 08:26

It's a good update hence why the share price is rising now. Also a good takeover candidate.

[ashkv] 16/5/2024 08:20

HBR, SQZ, PTAL etc appear dirt cheap in comparison to TLW - surprised share price hasn't corrected to sub 30p based on this horrendous update re low guidance for 2024 being the new bar!!!



Share Price -> 36.25p
TLW share price vs 52 Week low of 23.94p on 1 June 23 -> 51.42%
TLW share price vs 52 Week High of 39.94p on 6 Sep 23 -> -9.24%
Brent Price -> $83.20
Outstanding Shares -> 1,456,705,746
Market Cap GBP -> £528,055,833
GBPUSD -> 1.27
Market Cap USD -> $670,630,908
Net Debt USD (YE 2023 Per March 2024 RNS) -> $1,608,000,000
TLW Q1 2024 Production [Excluding 7kboepd of Gas] -> 52,000
TLW 2024 Low-Guidance Excluding 7kboepd gas [Revised Per Q1 Trading Update - May 2024] -> 55,000
TLW 2023 Average Production (Excluding 6kboepd Gas) -> 57,000
TLW 2022 Average Production -> 61,100
Enterprise Value (USD) -> $2,278,630,908
EV/BARREL-USD Q1 2024 Production [Excluding 7kboepd of Gas] -> $43,820
EV/BARREL-USD 2024 Low Guidance Excluding 7kboepd gas [Low Guidance Indicated per Q1 2024 Update RNS] -> $41,430
EV/BARREL-USD 2023 Average Production (Excluding 6kboepd Gas) -> $39,976
EV/BARREL-USD 2022 Average Production -> $37,293
Abandonment / Decommissioning Liability (FY 2023 Results) -> $377,900,000
EV/BARREL (2023 Guidance) with Decommissioning Liability -> $46,606
2P Reserves per FY 2023 Results -> 212,000,000
Enterprise Value / 2P Reserves (Per Barrel) -> $10.75
EV (Including Decom)/2P (Per Barrel) -> $12.53

[the grumpy old men] 16/5/2024 08:16

Tullow Oil Affirms FY24 Production Guidance Ahead of AGM

May 16, 2024 at 08:06 am

(MT Newswires) -- Tullow Oil (TLW.L, TQW.IR) maintained its guidance for 2024 group working interest production at between 62,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 68,000 boepd, with the final figure expected to be in the lower end of the range.

The oil and gas company made the Thursday statement ahead of the annual general meeting scheduled for the same day.

[ctc1] 16/5/2024 08:09

See questions at end of presentation: 3-4 or 4-5 new wells in Jbl '25

hxxps://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/5.+Archive+2024/Tullow+FY+Results+2023.mp4

[the grumpy old men] 16/5/2024 08:05

Tullow Oil Says 2024 Working Interest Production Guidance Remains 62-68 Kboepd

May 16, 2024 at 07:01 am




* TULLOW OIL PLC: 2024 GROUP WORKING INTEREST PRODUCTION GUIDANCE REMAINS 62-68 KBOEPD, WITH FULL-YEAR OUTCOME EXPECTED TO BE TOWARDS LOWER END OF RANGE

Source text for Eikon

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 07:54

Kosmos indicated on a previous call that going forwards 3 to 4 wells would be drilled on a regular basis with 12 to 18 month fallow periods in between. A rig won't be back until mid-year 2025 aiui and then it takes 60 days to drill and complete the first well (longer if you batch drill 2 or 3 top hole sections for drilling efficiency before drilling bottom hole sections then completing).

Maybe the rig will be back sooner if production outcome weak?

[ctc1] 16/5/2024 07:41

There are 3-4, 4-5 wells planned for '25 when the rig comes back after a 6 month break.

[xxnjr] 16/5/2024 07:30

Not very good on the production front I'm afraid as the release contains the dreaded words

"Rates from the most recent production wells are lower than pre-drill expectations as work continues to optimise pressure support across the field."

Credit where it's due. TLW have been incredibly efficient at drilling wells. It's just that they haven't delivered the results expected (so far). Perhaps indicating their understanding of the field is not where it should be? In terms of understanding the seismic, reservoir etc.

I agree with SS. With no new wells for what (18 months?) and an underlying decline rate of 25% (perhaps/hopefully mitigated by increased water injection) then where will production be at year end and 20251H?

[alfiex] 16/5/2024 07:20

Same old , would've been nice to hear at the higher end of guidance.Group Production·      Group working interest production in the first quarter of 2024 was c.59 kboepd, including c.7 kboepd of gas production, within the expected range for the period. 2024 Group working interest production guidance remains 62-68 kboepd, with the full-year outcome expected to be towards the lower end of the range.

[subsurface] 16/5/2024 01:25

So long as they deliver on the master plan ,debt coming down FCF up, and with over $80 Brent and a new hedge position going forward looks good.

My concern is getting into a position of not having new wells to put on line should we see a big decline in production at Jubilee.

Tanker loading has proved a good way to keep tabs on Production.

[seagreen] 15/5/2024 23:30

Possible Bear trap....interesting

[wellbutpoor] 15/5/2024 16:08

SP holding up ok despite this interjection.

That will teach me to open my big mouth!!

Let's not forget that a lot of money has flowed into this recently, so there is certainly a high level of confidence in the background.

[xxnjr] 15/5/2024 15:55

Let's see what they say tomorrow. We already know Jubilee is sub-par YTD. But what is the forward guidance? TEN has performed OK. And Gabon is a complete mystery. Don't be surprised if Rahul pops up on stage and miraculously says "everything is going swimmingly, exceeding expectations, I'm happy to share with you that Jubilee is over 100K", blah!, blah!, blah! and there will be a lot of guff on "shared prosperity", "host nations" (that continue to let us down) and all that padding nonsense as usual.

What we really need is concrete evidence of strong production.

[badger36] 15/5/2024 15:19

Well that's some kick in the nuts Flatters to deceive

[wellbutpoor] 15/5/2024 11:00

12 month breakout looking likely today....

Indicators all looking good.

Good luck
wbp

[xxnjr] 15/5/2024 10:18

AGM Tomorrow. This is what our CEO said last time around.



Think it's fair to say TLW missed a number of their targets.

Prod miss at Jubilee and failing to hit lower end of revised company guidance.
Thats despite drilling efficiency and costs being very good. FPSO uptime also very good.

FCF was better than projected but easily done with a low guidance number.

TEN POD and GSA: Nil points
Kenya FID: Nil points
Engagement with GRA to resolve issue out of court: Nil Points
Gabon asset swap with Perenco: Presumably an update tomorrow on the platform explosion, assuming that's not hidden from view.

SP now at a critical point. Which way will it go tomorrow?

[wellbutpoor] 14/5/2024 13:56

Could be possible that there's another buy note in circulation in support of the recent Bank Of America 55p target?

[rossifumi] 14/5/2024 12:45

Has to be a leak, some monster buys, somebody knows something that's for sure........

[rossifumi] 14/5/2024 12:41

Big buys coming through 39p paid, slowly but surely

[subsurface] 14/5/2024 11:59

April 4th Tullow website

In a significant move towards ensuring environmental sustainability and responsible resource management in Ghana's energy sector, Tullow and its Joint Venture (JV) Partners have officially signed an agreement to establish a decommissioning fund for the Jubilee Field.
This marks a pivotal moment in the management of the field, setting a precedent for future decommissioning efforts in the country. The fund, aimed at facilitating the safe shutdown and restoration of the field at the end of its production life, will receive contributions from the JV Partners in proportion to their stake in the project.

While the decommissioning process remains many years away, the process will involve dismantling and removing essential infrastructure, including the FPSO, seabed flowlines, manifolds, suction piles, and wellheads, in accordance with global standards and industry best practices.

At the signing ceremony, Deputy Managing Director of Tullow Ghana, Cynthia Lumor, emphasised the significance of collaboration and responsible stewardship in managing the decommissioning process.

Should invest the fund in Tullow shares to show confidence going forward.?

[badger36] 14/5/2024 08:21

Hope so. Just topped up at 38.5