Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[alfiex] 29/9/2023 14:00

The trouble with doing business in Africa hTTps://nation.africa/kenya/counties/turkana/senators-tullow-pay-turkana-residents-share-oil-cash-4383476

[bootycall] 28/9/2023 12:42

The capex was always going to come down because integrating the subsea infrastructure was not an ongoing expense…(maybe the Jubilee NE development will require new manifolds and distribution in future). What investors should ask themselves is, how do the analysts justify their DD&A charges and interest costs against the backdrop off such a massive revision ? That is effectively a $600m cash saving. Now watch as Tullow explains the real significance of any long term gas contract for associated and non associated gas. A combination of the two might add up to an improvement of almost $200m in free cash per annum by 2025/6. Remember to add production increases to be expensed over unit cost of production against reserve additions which must be revised post a successful integration of Jubilee South East and a deeper section of reserves (identified in the last well ) in the main Jubilee field. An approved FDP for Ten will also have a potentially decent impact…not to mention the hints about potentially sharing an FPSO facility?
The branch profits tax is a massive red herring in my opinion…totally against the terms of the PSC..I would be surprised if the Ghanaians have the brass cheek to let it even get to the court. I predict a save facing climb down within weeks. If they want to keep using the tactic as a negotiation tool they better withdraw before the stupidity of their claim is ruled on once and for all. As a potential breach of stabilisation clauses, I assume Tullow can file for costs to be recovered ? . Now that really will make the Government look stupid . Meanwhile the Government of Ghana, has I understand, withdrawn cases against MTN and Kosmos already. Game on !



The above post is a work of art not to be taken too seriously..but a little bit more seriously than xxnjr :) Booty

[subsurface] 28/9/2023 12:11

Thanks for the update XX,
Ntomme Far West Development also in the mix.

[xxnjr] 28/9/2023 12:01

Booty, yeah Jeffries/MW were probably modelling $800m CAPEX over 2024/25 which is kind of similar to the current 2023 run rate (about $400m/yr). I had assumed the same. The webcast was the 1st time I can recall TLW guiding 2024/5 down to $275m/yr so I'll let myself off :) Good news though. Basically 3 or 4 Ghana wells a yr to maintain Jubilee plateau. Suggests FCF could be >$400m/yr for both 2024/5 at >$80/bbl?

(written for your collective entertainment. it's not investment advice)

[reubenblackgold] 28/9/2023 11:28

The lowly share price speaks for itself, but you think that anyone who has a balanced view is 'Patel' :)

[bootycall] 28/9/2023 10:44

What is find amusing is the siren voices of analysts who persist with flawed financial models. Case in point, one of the most vocal analysts has overstated the capex budget by US$600m over the next two years ! He is not the only one. If you listen to the conference call you will hear Mark Wilson comment that his model also had higher capex…this is all a bit tiresome…since the Company publishes a “Factbook” and issued precise capex guidance during the last conference call . Furthermore, the Company has spelt out that it could reduce capex significantly if it so wished and still maintain production at Jubilee above 100kbpd gross per day for the next two years. Capex forms part of AFE (authorised financial expenditure budgets agreed between partners )which have reasonable lead times. In the absence of a new field development plan for Ten, the analysts might now learn now to differentiate between growth and maintenance capex. Post the recent rise in the oil price Tullow should have had ample time to lock in higher prices on the forward curve. As the convertible bonds continue to recover in price the prospects of a serious size buyback looks more and more likely. First execute on the bond refinancing/extension of maturities ,then the Company should have ample headroom to buyback on cash flow multiple of less than two times ! Management may prefer to payback debt for a further 12 months…but very soon this should pop.






Please do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed in the above post when making an investment decision.

[bonnie60] 28/9/2023 10:17

'There is very little interest in this share', which is why Reuben spends all their time hiding behind a myriad of different account names and is a pariah wherever they pop up. Sad Patel.

[reubenblackgold] 28/9/2023 09:52

It is only a few idiots on another board who see the value here. Their obsession with shorters is laughable.

[reubenblackgold] 28/9/2023 09:50

There is very little interest in this share.

[kulvinder] 27/9/2023 16:27

How can this not move above 36p with Oil over 94usd? It just unbelievable.

[reubenblackgold] 26/9/2023 12:41

TLW have stated that they do not expect a conclusion in the tax dispute for 18 months.

[subsurface] 26/9/2023 09:48

Thanks for the update on Possible Ghana production XX.

Lucky that Kosmos are partner with a strong Company sounds an expensive mess.

A question to IR was posted on LSE


Q. What is the date of the arbitration hearing next month?

A. The arbitration with regards to Branch Profit Remittance Tax will commence in October, but a result is not expected for approximately six months afterwards.

[reubenblackgold] 26/9/2023 09:48

Oil price in the $90S, TLW producing about 63k BOPD, and the share price struggling to hold 35p. Where is the upside here.....

[xxnjr] 26/9/2023 09:09

Contrast the performance of TLW operated JSE with BP operated GTA for Kosmos Energy.

JSE was on time and on budget and seems to be performing as expected with about 97% uptime. Another offload starting now suggests we are still at c.105K bopd.

OK I know the former, now departed, BP CEO had his issues, but even so

Their new build FPSO left China 8 months ago on its voyage to Dakar and yet it is today still going around in circles in the Indian Ocean near Mozambique. Why? Rest of project not ready to receive FPSO as BP's pipelay contractor have left the project due to a dispute. 20kms of vital pipeline are absent and there currently isn't another contractor. Project delayed by at least a year (iiRC), over budget and BP struggling to get it over the finishing line. Meanwhile the FPSO just circles in 100 km loops being pulled by 4 tugs consuming vast quantities of fuel. You couldn't make it up but it's happening.

[badger36] 25/9/2023 09:45

Bring your own I'd say as well

[xxnjr] 25/9/2023 09:06

You'll never know as you won't receive an invitation! ;-)

[subsurface] 22/9/2023 20:25

So another 2.25 million bought.

[badger36] 22/9/2023 16:56

Another 2.25 million sold

[reubenblackgold] 22/9/2023 13:46

If this Co had the potential that the rampers suggest, then the IIs would be buying. Even the IIs that are at a huge loss have not tried to average down.

Still the experts have their gas deal to look forward to :)

[xxnjr] 22/9/2023 07:41

Your cup is 1/2 full. It's a closing auction. For every seller there's a buyer. By the same logic; 2m stolen at what may be a bargain price in the fulness of time.

[badger36] 21/9/2023 16:46

Another 2 Million dumped Just illogical given oil price or is it ?

[reubenblackgold] 21/9/2023 12:53

Shorters will only get burnt if the share price flies. AFAIK, there is no way of knowing if they have sold the borrowed shares, so they may just pay the borrowing costs and give the shares back. However, if bad news lands, then the may sell to drive the share price down even further.

[humpty dumpty 33] 21/9/2023 11:45

Yes, the big investors use the short sellers for their own benefit. To the point where the game changes and the timing could be now or soon. They have the upper hand and will spit out the short ones without chewing them when they no longer have any use for them.
The risk of a capital increase or a default has been reduced from >50% to, I would estimate, <20%.
There should also be enough money to compensate both, us shareholders and the creditors generously over the coming years.

They have now two options: retreat in an orderly manner, if there is time, or go underground. It's up to them whether their greed will win, to our advantage, or whether they can pull the ripcord in time.