Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[kulvinder] 18/10/2023 10:11

It is a amazing how they able to hold the price down here

[subsurface] 18/10/2023 09:42

Eco Atlantic share price just over 9 pence hope this is not going to impact on the Tullow Guyana deal?

[hubshank] 17/10/2023 22:47

Still hanging in for my 45p :-) anywhere upwards of that would be so much more welcome. Interesting how it's hovering around this price range. A Chartist might argue it's preparing to rocket.

[reubenblackgold] 16/10/2023 15:42

You could ask the experts on the other board for advice, you know the fools that NSV Patel destroyed with factual and accurate content.

[kulvinder] 16/10/2023 09:26

If this is not considered to be worth at least 40p with a major war in the middle east, then what chance we got of this ever getting back to 60p never mind the 100 mark...

[xxnjr] 12/10/2023 10:37

Some interesting Q's and answers in this CNBCAfrica interview

"The bond markets are shut, the high yield markets are closed, the traditional banks (especially European) are no longer financing oil and gas developments BUT we'll see an emergence of new sources of capital from Africa itself (indigenous banks, multi-lateral funding, etc etc....."



Rahul does speak very well. Calm, articulate and coherent.

[reubenblackgold] 12/10/2023 09:32

More easy cash today.

[badger36] 11/10/2023 16:17

No denying it but the share price has been a complete and utter disaster for most longs. All the favourable factors including the bonds have conspired to accomplish nothing but debt repayment and bond redemption. Shareholders who took the risk and remained loyal have been well and truly shafted. As for the Capricorn deal- why did heads not roll?

[subsurface] 11/10/2023 13:57

Self-praise is no recommendation,· Empty boasting reflects poorly on the qualities of the braggart.

[reubenblackgold] 11/10/2023 13:35

My track record for predicting tlw price movements is second to none.

Look at the losers who have been wrong for over 2 years, calling for multiple take overs, and claiming that shorts are closing due to a large UT.

[badger36] 11/10/2023 10:56

No better way of calling a man a fool than ignoring that what he says.A very pertinent quote I think

[reubenblackgold] 11/10/2023 10:19

More easy money, this will pull back from here :)

[blackhorse23] 10/10/2023 16:22

PFC looks good as a energy investment

[reubenblackgold] 10/10/2023 10:26

I am no loser, unlike the ramping fools :)

I will make a tidy sum here this afternoon:)

[bonnie60] 09/10/2023 14:51

Reuben has his Mazruddin account deleted on LSE and reappears here. Always a loser.

[reubenblackgold] 09/10/2023 14:28

The experts on the other board get triggered by the truth, but I like taking their money anyway :)

[xxnjr] 06/10/2023 23:17

Fair enough Booty. You are entitled to your view (that Rahul doesn't give proper guidance). But from my perspective your claim doesn't really stand up to scrutiny. Whilst we agree on many things this is one where we'll have to differ. No worries though :)

[bootycall] 06/10/2023 16:46

@xxnjr I thought we had just agreed that many analysts had overestimated capex by over US$500m in the next two years…we had also heard from the Company that they can maintain production on their main field for over two years even if they substantially reduce drilling activity by over US$150m p.a. In order to have options on rigs you have to have authorised financial expenditure budgets agreed more than 6 months ahead ! The Company needs to be more transparent…and Rahul has been far too slow sorting the Ten field out. The latter is the reason for the downgrades and yet there is plenty of oil to be extracted with the existing FPSO. Tremendous progress has been made but the Jubilee field development was not exactly rocket science. Booty


See disclaimer in last post.

[xxnjr] 06/10/2023 15:10

Would suggest Rahul's forward guidance has been over optimistic, for example

2020 CMD Slide 7 "60K to 80K range (with 64K BOPD minimum likely) for years 2021 to 2030"
- struggling to hit the bottom of that range!

2021 AR Pres Slide 23 "TEN will hit 50K"
- struggling to hit 20K now!

2022 AR Pres Slide 5 "2023 FY Guidance 58K to 64K bopd"
- struggling to hit lower end of range for this year! In fact we will probably miss the lower target.

The other thing is Budgets and work programs aren't agreed with partners until well into Q4. Without an agreed work program how can TLW produce a forecast?

edit---> [sorry your ?.... invited a response! Agreed SP's are volatile at the moment. Have a great weekend Bootycall :)]

[bootycall] 06/10/2023 14:51

@xxnjr Point taken ..it went from an intra day 549 on the 28th to just under 490 yesterday when I was having a conversation with a fund manager.. and I didn’t notice it had bounced up 20p when I woke up this morning …. Even then that represents around 12%…I claim poetic licence. The point is extreme volatility. Geez..this is not a paid job and I did put a question mark on the point as I had not got time to fact check. Have a nice weekend :)

[xxnjr] 06/10/2023 14:40

Not a lot has changed really with the OP.

2023 1H Brent OP when Ghana cargos actually shipped averaged about $80

2023 3Q Brent OP when Jubilee cargos actually shipped has averaged about $87

OP now $84. Are we going back to $90 or $80?

Forward prices are <$80 from June 2024 but forward charts can be meaningless!

[xxnjr] 06/10/2023 14:28

BP is off about 15%? in recent weeks.....

-1.5% (at time of writing this) over the last 30 days
and -7% to -10% from recent high depending on if you use closing price or intra-day high.

[badger36] 06/10/2023 08:28

Thanks Booty for your measured reassurance

[bootycall] 06/10/2023 08:23

@badger36
Try not to be “top and tailed”in your share dealings. Kenya is frustrating but tantalisingly close. Forward cash flows yields are very attractive. The improved pricing of the bonds in the last six months, points to progress in development milestones. If Rahul can extend bond maturity dates out by a couple of years the Company should be free to do buybacks..which would transform the price.
Owing to ESG BS, pricing anomalies are everywhere to be seen in this sector…BP is off about 15%? in recent weeks. I believe loads of quoted oil companies will be taken private in due course. The cash flow yields mean most acquisitions could be self funded. Rahul has delivered in many areas but his reluctance to give proper forward guidance is cold comfort to those who own the shares. It would be perfectly reasonable to remind the directors that the shareholders own this company. Now our debt covenants are under relative control there is no reason for shareholders to lose out continuously . However good a job current management are performing operationally, we should judge them by shareholder returns over a sensible time period. Meanwhile , this Company is a sitting duck for a takeover .The world has gone mad. Booty


DYOR. Please do not rely on the facts or opinions contained in the above post when making an investment decision.

[alfiex] 05/10/2023 17:17

Yeah thats him, the other thread was quite sensible till he started posting with all his aliases