Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 13/9/2023 09:23

Sabotage from the inside

[mcsean2164] 13/9/2023 09:16

Brent over $92 and this... Good grief. Feels like tlw never fail to disappoint since Dorothy took the reigns.

[badger36] 13/9/2023 09:15

Simply incredible Nothing but constant disappointment, timeline misses, sulphur, water, inopportune hedging...Will it change. No insider buying. Shorts have laughed again

[jugears] 13/9/2023 09:07

Always dissapointing this company & to think the shares were once £15!

[xxnjr] 13/9/2023 08:29

JakNife

Brevathan production analysis is entirely credible and basically reflects what I have been saying for the past 3 months or so. The 2 water injection wells may help to mitigate decline on Jubilee as we have seen with TEN. Plus there will be another Jubilee producer online around year end or 1Q I believe. Increased OP and further possible debt repurchases will help. As will new gas sales revenue, if received from economically challenged Ghana. Plus a more favourable hedging mix. As basically a single asset Oil Producer any prolonged outage in Jubilee would be catastrophic.

Bootycall to be fair TLW production guidance has been pretty accurate over Rahul's time. In fact sometimes assumptions have been over optimistic. Having said that FCF guidance tends to be conservative. We should outperform there. And having looked at it Slide 5 is basically same as TLW have been saying ( C.100k now, up to 110K 4Q).

[adrian j boris] 13/9/2023 08:15

Tullow Oil narrows output guidance as H1 profits drop

Wed, 13th Sep 2023 07:52


(Sharecast News) - Oil and gas group Tullow Oil said profits more than halved in the first six months of 2023 on the back of a significant drop in crude prices, as it disappointed the market with lower-than-expected output guidance for the full year.

The company narrowed its full-year production target to 58,000-60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), at the lower end of previous guidance of 58,000-64,000 boepd.

Tullow said this was due to the first-half performance at its flagship Jubilee field offshore Ghana being "slightly below expectations" and the timing of the Jubilee South East start up in the second half of the year.

Despite sales volumes rising to 56,900 boepd in the first half of 2023, from 53,500 boepd in the first half last year, the realised oil price slumped to $73.3 a barrel, down from $86.3 a barrel a year earlier.

As such, total revenue came in at $777m, compared with $859m previously.

Underlying cash operating costs fell to $136m from $143m, but that wasn't enough to stop pre-tax profit from continuing activities falling to $217m, from $561m. Basic earnings per share dropped to 4.9 cents, from 18.4 cents.

"We are at an important inflection point in the evolution of our business plan," said chief executive Rahul Dhir. "For the last two and a half years we have relentlessly focused on capital discipline, operational performance and appropriate investment in our assets. This has resulted in a much-improved business, material debt reduction and most recently, the delivery of Jubilee South East which has substantially increased production.

"We now switch to harvesting mode as our business is set to generate c.$800 million of free cash flow between 2023 and 2025, whilst we will continue to run our business with the same discipline. This will enable us to further reduce our debt, put in place a sustainable capital structure and grow our business to create value for our investors, host nations and employees."

[adrian j boris] 13/9/2023 08:10

Tullow Oil reduces upper end of 2023 output outlook
Updated / Wednesday, 13 Sep 2023 07:45

Tullow said its H1 adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and exploration expense stood at $1.17 billion, down from $1.28 billion a year ago

West Africa-focused Tullow Oil has today reduced the upper end of its production outlook for this year to 58,000-60,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 58,000-64,000 bpd.

The reduction was because of lower than expected production from its Jubilee field in the first half of the year and timing of the start-up of the Jubilee South East extension in the second half, the company said.

It adding that Jubilee currently produces more than 100,000 bpd.

Reporting first-half results, Tullow said adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and exploration expense stood at $1.17 billion, down from $1.28 billion a year earlier.

Tullow reiterated its guidance on full-year free cash flow of $100m at an oil price of $80 a barrel, its net debt outlook of $1.7 billion by year-end and investment budget of $400 million.

Tullow's shares have lost as much as 29% in the past 12 months. Its market capitalisation stood at $671m yesterday.

The company said it has a range of options "to address debt maturities and position the business for a successful refinancing".

Tullow hedged about 34,500 bpd of its second half output between average prices of $56 and $75 a barrel and 22,700 bpd of its first-half 2024 output between $56 and $76 a barrel.



rté

[bootycall] 13/9/2023 07:50

The change to the upper level guidance is merely the fact that Jubilee South East came on production just over a month late ? Look at Slide 5 of the Kosmos results presentation for the future guidance on Jubilee . Why is Tullow always understating what is going on by using words such as, production in excess of…It drives me mad . Rahul, look at Kosmos.. and just do the same. If you can’t get better IR. The Kosmos valuation metrics are so much higher.. its an embarrassment.

[djderry] 13/9/2023 07:35

Very positive interims.

[jaknife] 13/9/2023 01:34

Any strong views on this?

[subsurface] 13/9/2023 01:20

Ghana /Tullow tax dispute through international arbitration

A hearing in respect of this dispute is scheduled for October 2023.

Kenya report from June 2023

According to Energy Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir, the report being undertaken by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) will be ready by end of August and will give the government a clear roadmap on what to do next.



hope they give an update

Rahul listed as a speaker at the Africa Oil conference 9th to 13th October 2023

[xxnjr] 13/9/2023 00:00

My guess would be; 1st half financials make pretty grim reading. Full year production guidance may come in at lower end of range (58K to 64K), or worse. Despite that Free Cash Flow forecast will be maintained or even upgraded. Commentary will be gushingly optimistic regarding 2024. How will market react? Cup 1/2 empty? Or full? The latter ought to win out, eventually.

[bilbosenior] 12/9/2023 16:40

1/2 year results scheduled for tomorrow

Fingers crossed

[kulvinder] 12/9/2023 16:02

Still time to dump, if you worried results will disappoint....decisions, decisions...personally waited too long for this to come good, so decided to chance it for tomorrow's open. GLA...

[reubenblackgold] 12/9/2023 10:00

SP is looking very weak, those experts who quote twitter are wrong again :)

[valuehurts] 12/9/2023 00:08

A fund can sell a block to another fund. Not layering or whatever...

[reubenblackgold] 11/9/2023 10:39

The shorts and others are in it together, just don't tell the experts.

[alfiex] 08/9/2023 14:57

Why? Have you lost too much on enq

[humpty dumpty 33] 08/9/2023 14:12

100$ oil is coming and the shorts will implode.

It will become disgusting.

The Oil Market Hasn’t Felt The Full Impact Of Saudi Arabia's Cuts Yet

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Market-Hasnt-Felt-The-Full-Impact-Of-Saudi-Arabias-Cuts-Yet.html

[blackhorse23] 08/9/2023 13:18

Switched to PFC