Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[fizzmiss] 21/2/2022 13:36

Well, I did warn you all not to listen to ramp pump and dump syndicate tug boat stories.

The syndicate will be selling whilst they pump to keep lemmings buying.

[kulvinder] 21/2/2022 13:32

Wish I knew, would have sold at 60p....who knows why this always drops...

[sarkasm] 21/2/2022 12:34

Market down day for all and sundry

[mcsean2164] 21/2/2022 12:30

Oil over $90. $75 million payment and tullow back below 50p

Any know what the heck is going on?

[thommie] 21/2/2022 12:01

To me it looks like seismic isnt needed here anymore. You can just draw a line between stabroek block discoveries and Block 58 discoveries and just drill a hole in line anywhere you wish. Im sure every drill would be able new discovery. LOL.Anyway, kanuku and orinduik are unfortunately not directly in line with it... Lets see if the brother line gets a sister line to draw :)

[subsurface] 21/2/2022 09:01

Guyana /Suriname basin

Suriname: TotalEnergies announces another significant discovery in Block 58, offshore Suriname
located 18 kms south-east of Sapakara South, Krabdagu-1 was drilled at a water depth of 780 meters and encountered approx. 90 meters of net oil pay in good quality Maastrichtian and Campanian reservoirs.



Oil exploration within the Repsol-operated Kanuku Block, offshore Guyana, is set to continue with the spudding of the Beebei-Potaro well in May.

[fizzmiss] 21/2/2022 08:57

And if it doesn't apply, more woulda coulda shoulda ramp pump and dump posts.

Let's keep it to factual rather than fake news please.

[xxnjr] 21/2/2022 07:45

If the every 3rd cargo being TLW applies, the tanker now lining up this morning to offload at Jubilee will be for us.

[waldron] 21/2/2022 07:27

European stocks set to climb as hopes of Russia-Ukraine solution emerge

Published Mon, Feb 21 20222:18 AM EST

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC


Key Points

U.S. President Joe Biden has accepted “in principle” a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, paving the way for last-ditch diplomatic efforts to avert an invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.

On the data front, initial flash PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings for February are due out of France, Germany and the euro area, along with the U.K., on Monday morning.

LONDON — European markets are set to climb on Monday as hopes emerged for a diplomatic solution to Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 41 points higher at 7,555, Germany’s DAX is set to add around 172 points to 15,215 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to gain around 51 points to 6,981, according to IG data.

[waldron] 21/2/2022 07:23

EMEA Morning Briefing: Stocks to Open Higher After Biden, Putin Agree to Summit
21/02/2022 5:48am
Dow Jones News




Monday 21 February 2022


MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone Flash PMI; UK Flash PMI; Bundesbank monthly report; OECD Quarterly National Accounts: GDP growth; U.S. Presidents Day Financial markets closed; updates from Volkswagen, Galp Energia.

Opening Call:

European stocks could start the week higher after Biden agrees to Putin summit provided Russia pulls back from Ukraine attack. The Dollar and Japanese yen weaken against most G-10 and Asian currencies. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 1.928%. Oil prices are mixed. Gold falls after summit agreement.

[subsurface] 20/2/2022 02:44

Thanks for some very interesting posts.

We now understand more about the Hedge situation and we can reconcile loading's with Ship movements.

Looks like good news for February Brent price forecast


The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $90 per barrel in February 2022 and nearly $88 per barrel for the first half of this year.

Great news a new producer on the way and second off loading line on Jubilee.

Kosmos 4Q 2021 Results webcast on 28th February.

[waldron] 19/2/2022 19:34

Extreme Backwardation Suggests One Of The Tightest Oil Markets Ever

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 17, 2022, 11:00 AM CST

Oil futures are seeing the steepest backwardation in data going back to 2007, suggesting we are witnessing one of the tightest oil markets ever.

While oil prices fell on Thursday morning due to rumors of an Iran nuclear deal coming to fruition, the near-term oil market will remain very tight.

The price of Dated Brent physical cargoes traded in the North Sea hit $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday, the first time Brent exceeded $100 since 2014.


The oil futures curve is in such an extreme backwardation that it suggests the oil market is very tight right now, despite Thursday’s move lower after Iran said that a possible nuclear deal was “closer than ever.”

Brent oil prices fell early on Thursday to below the $93 mark, after Iran’s main negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, tweeted late on Wednesday:

“After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though. Our negotiating partners need to be realistic, avoid intransigence and heed lessons of past 4yrs. Time for their serious decisions.”

In case a deal is indeed reached – and the U.S. has said that the window of reaching an agreement is closing fast – Iran could return some 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market within several months after the U.S. lifts sanctions on its oil exports.

This, of course, is still in the realm of possibility, but the immediate signals reflected in the futures prices are shouting that the market has rarely been so tight.

Some of the futures spreads are in their steepest backwardations in data going back to 2007, according to Bloomberg.

The price of Dated Brent, physical cargoes traded in the North Sea, hit $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday. That was the first time Dated Brent has exceeded the $100 a barrel threshold since September 2014. The jump in physical cargo prices suggests that traders are willing to pay $100 per barrel for actual crude supply right now in a sign of a very tight market, Bloomberg notes.

“The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth,” analysts at Energy Aspects wrote in a note to clients cited by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma—the designated delivery point for WTI Crude oil futures contracts—dropped by another 1.9 million barrels, to stand at just 25.8 million barrels as of February 11—the lowest level since 2018.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[xxnjr] 19/2/2022 12:04

thommie - Not sure what the BE 804 does before final hook up but recall same thing happened with the last WI. I'm sure you are right that only the rig can install the mechanical hardware. Last update said

"The drilling programme delivered two producers (J56-P online in July, J57-P online in December), one water injector (J55-WI online in September) and a work over (J12-WI online early in January 2022)."

Rig was on location about 40 days before latest move so w/inj ought to at least be at TD but as you say too early to be on stream. The rig could have moved to perform another operation elsewhere before returning to the w/inj site. Will update if returns.

[thommie] 19/2/2022 08:43

Good to hear progress. Feels like beating their own timelines to me. Wouldnt have expected that the wi is already drilled in mid february as the rig also did a workover in january. So another ship is assisting and doing the completion work? Is that common practice? I always thought you need the rig to do so.

[the grumpy old men] 19/2/2022 08:11

Delayed London Stock Exchange - 02/18 11:35:09 am

50.04 GBX -1.73%

[fizzmiss] 19/2/2022 07:59

Forget the traditional ramp pump and dump, woulda coulda shouda 2 self rec posts about tug boat movements, keep an eye on Iran and invest accordingly:

hxxps://www.news18.com/videos/india/no-oil-sanction-relief-7-bn-assets-us-wants-prisoners-freed-will-iran-accept-nuclear-draft-deal-4787582.html


hxxps://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-readying-for-signing-of-spectacularly-bad-iran-deal-next-week/

[xxnjr] 18/2/2022 21:38

Maersk Venturer has now moved to a new position 5.5 kms at 68 deg from previous location where it was drilling a water injection well. BE 804 now on the w/inj well (perhaps doing completion work). Next well to be drilled should be a producer according to the script.

Seven Borealis arrived about 10 days ago. Presumably to help with final installation sequence of the 2nd Jubilee offloading line.

[waldron] 18/2/2022 14:50

cheers THOM

[waldron] 18/2/2022 14:50

.
Thommie
18 Feb '22 - 12:16 - 56851 of 56854
0 5 0
My answer from IR:

"Dear xxx,



Thank you for your email and feedback.



To address your questions:

We’ve had a few questions on this – you are not the first to find hard to reconcile. We’ve tried to summarise below:

January realisations were particularly good for us for a few reasons:

We sold three cargoes in January, two of which priced at the end of the month when dated brent prices were higher.

These two cargoes (Ghana crudes) also sold at a premium to brent.

With regards to hedging; our lowest sold calls in 2022 are not on our books until the second quarter, so the high prices in January were felt less acutely.

The expanded hedge program is the result of the new bond and is detailed on slide 22 of the Credit Presentation: HERE

The terms of the contingent payments are as follows:

Post-first oil, a contingent payment shall be paid to Tullow annually from upstream revenues from the acquired interests (28.33% post-Ugandan Government back-in) if Brent annual average is as follows:

i. Brent $62/bbl = 1.25% contingent payment

iii. Brent >$70/bbl = 2.5% contingent payment

Based on a plateau of 230 kbopd the total payment over the first five years could be c.$60m at $65/bbl and c.$150m at $75/bbl.

We are expecting the “Jubilee Foundation Volume Gas” to be completed in the second half of 2022 and we have a dedicated JV taskforce to progress the commercialisation of the gas resource.

Gas commercialisation options are currently being negotiated. So as you might expect, due to sensitivity it would be wrong for me to pre-empt the outcome here.



I hope that is helpful.



We are currently working hard on the FY Results presentation and look forward to updating the market on 9 March.



Kind regards

Matthew"

[fizzmiss] 18/2/2022 14:47

Good ole Mat lol

I guess you have to look at the risk reward,;

So risk reward over the weekend, buy and hope Iran don't announce a deal to pump more oil into the market which will crash the share price to at least 45p IMHO

Or sell and buy back Monday if all is good.

Me; risk reward of making 2p is far outweighed by the potential 5p drop come Monday.

[xxnjr] 18/2/2022 12:53

thx for sharing Thommie. Matthew is one the most helpful and informative IR guys in the E&P space.

[fizzmiss] 18/2/2022 12:22

Keep an eye on Iran oil, won't matter how many tug boats are ramped, if this oil comes back on stream expect at least a $5 drop in oil prices:

hxxps://www.qcintel.com/article/oil-futures-prices-slide-as-progress-seen-on-iran-talks-brent-below-91-50-b-4246.html

[thommie] 18/2/2022 12:16

My answer from IR:"Dear xxx, Thank you for your email and feedback. To address your questions:We've had a few questions on this – you are not the first to find hard to reconcile. We've tried to summarise below:January realisations were particularly good for us for a few reasons:We sold three cargoes in January, two of which priced at the end of the month when dated brent prices were higher.These two cargoes (Ghana crudes) also sold at a premium to brent.With regards to hedging; our lowest sold calls in 2022 are not on our books until the second quarter, so the high prices in January were felt less acutely.The expanded hedge program is the result of the new bond and is detailed on slide 22 of the Credit Presentation: HEREThe terms of the contingent payments are as follows:Post-first oil, a contingent payment shall be paid to Tullow annually from upstream revenues from the acquired interests (28.33% post-Ugandan Government back-in) if Brent annual average is as follows:                                                               i.      Brent $62/bbl = 1.25% contingent payment                                                           iii.      Brent >$70/bbl = 2.5% contingent paymentBased on a plateau of 230 kbopd the total payment over the first five years could be c.$60m at $65/bbl and c.$150m at $75/bbl.We are expecting the "Jubilee Foundation Volume Gas" to be completed in the second half of 2022 and we have a dedicated JV taskforce to progress the commercialisation of the gas resource.Gas commercialisation options are currently being negotiated. So as you might expect, due to sensitivity it would be wrong for me to pre-empt the outcome here. I hope that is helpful. We are currently working hard on the FY Results presentation and look forward to updating the market on 9 March. Kind regardsMatthew"

[waldron] 18/2/2022 07:45

European markets set for cautious open as Russia-Ukraine crisis develops

Published Fri, Feb 18 20222:23 AM EST

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC


Key Points

Addressing the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an urgent appeal against a Russian invasion.

Some selling pressure has been alleviated as investors hope that a meeting between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov next week will yield a diplomatic solution.

LONDON — European markets are set for a cautious open on Friday, with global sentiment hanging in the balance as the Ukraine-Russia crisis reaches a pivotal moment.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 6 points higher at 7,543, Germany’s DAX is set to add around 12 points to 15,280 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to gain around 2 points to 6,949, according to IG data.