Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 04/3/2022 08:51

Hi XX

PEL 9O Namibia

I was disappointed they exited, this is what Alan Stein, Calima’s Managing Director commented:

The Namibian block is a world-class exploration play with extraordinary upside but it will require considerable investment and time to reach the point of exploration drilling.

I guess they are thinking money better spent in Ghana a sure bet and Tullow have the infrastructure.

In the news today


Qatar Energy signs Cooperation Agreement with Namibia’s NAMCOR


Tullow have had a very good start with the 10 year plan with increased production and POO
Kosmos Said cost recovery from the Oxy deal has gone from 3 years to less than 2

Rahul is doing a great job!

[fizzmiss] 04/3/2022 08:30

TLW did not reject this decision, it was our friendly neighbourhood Spider-Man.

Did warn you all, and well done those who sold at highs, those that never got sucked into the ramp pump and dump boasts of a mega rise once TLW get back into the 250 etc.

[xxnjr] 04/3/2022 08:20

Upstream ask an interesting Q regarding TLW's exit from their Namibian Block which was close to Total's giant Venus discovery thought to hold 3bn bbls recoverable which would make it Sub-Saharan Africa's largest ever oil discovery.

".....Upstream understands ExxonMobil and Shell were among the supermajors to access the data room but walked away due to concerns about risk plus the terms and conditions of any farm-in.

Tullow Oil also took a close look at Venus, sources say, but felt it was a supermajor play and was uncomfortable with the farm-in terms. But, cutely, it did the next best thing and took operatorship of a block immediately north of Venus that contains an extension of that play.

The big head-scratcher is that Tullow quit this block in January, just weeks before results from the Venus wildcat emerged, leaving operatorship to junior player Harmattan Energy.

Why? What was there to lose by holding onto the block until Venus had been wrapped up? If oil is found in this tract, Tullow may regret this decision.

However, veteran African explorer Alan Stein, whose Havoc Partners company owns Harmattan, can now pick from a bevy of suitors knocking at his door.

map here

[fizzmiss] 03/3/2022 19:52

That would be the never ending story posted for the last 2 years when oil was mega lower and TLW was mega higher.

But yea... live the dream.


If he peddles the usual historical boring no deal on Kenya on the 6th, then expect yet again heavy falls,

I feel like I'm the little lad in The Emperor's New Clothes with this one,Raul and Les being the weavers:

[kulvinder] 03/3/2022 19:43

Still believe it will be £1.50 in a 12 month time frame, they will have to let it go at some point.....just be played a bit longer while they take the shares of the ones of a nervious or panic stricken personality. I just hope I not get margined out in the mean time.....and miss out on the golden ticket that will eventually come....

[fizzmiss] 03/3/2022 17:08

Told ya, it's ground hog day, the worst thing to happen is TLW getting into the 250. Goldman suck and the MM will have a field day shorting this, manipulating the share price lower, whilst lazy Raul continues with his agenda......

Not in the interest of shareholders, I might add, to date.

[sarkasm] 03/3/2022 16:42

10pc swing what


Price (GBX)
54.42 -2.75% (-1.54)



Bp
359.75 -3.91%


Shell
1,938 -5.35%


TotalEnergies
46.175 -3.75%


Eni
13.81 -4.96%

[franky15] 03/3/2022 16:37

Topped up at 55.5 this afternoon, only consolation I didn't do it this morning at 59p

[franky15] 03/3/2022 16:28

Not a ten percent swing

[sarkasm] 03/3/2022 16:23

ALL MARKETS ARE DOWN

What do you expect

[franky15] 03/3/2022 16:20

Over 5p drop , when will it sustain a rise , does my head in

[fizzmiss] 03/3/2022 16:08

This is getting embarrassing who my predictions come true so many times:

Ground hog day, TLW enter the 250 as the likes of Goldman sucks short it down again,.

Dear oh dear, I did warn you all.

What are you doing Lazy AUL? You gonna sort out this share price corrupt manipulation? If not resign and go back to your masters.

[kulvinder] 03/3/2022 15:13

My, my, this never falls to amaze, back down with oil at 111usd....

[7rademark] 03/3/2022 15:01

News from Germany, no support for Russian oil embargo.That will not effect the oil price for long.

[toopoor] 03/3/2022 14:49

SHARE TIP

EVE SLEEP (EVE).

MARKET CAP £6m.

Has actual turnover and cash in bank unlike other Aim DUDS .

[7rademark] 03/3/2022 14:46

Saw the drop and was seriously hoping that news had broke of a cease fire, but no, just the usual tlw pm nose dive for no reason.

[badger36] 03/3/2022 14:41

Fizz was correct 250 and other opportunity to short the hell out of it. Oil plus 105 and this has not even shown any sign of finding support

[badger36] 03/3/2022 14:14

Simply incredible

[alfiex] 03/3/2022 14:12

You need the patience of a saint with this, lost 3p in last hour!!

[xxnjr] 03/3/2022 12:37

Stuff on recent GNS Security Arrangements and Ghana Gas

[xxnjr] 03/3/2022 11:39

Booty - Maybe JUB reservoirs are more reliable/predictable than TEN based on their current understanding of the fields so it makes sense initially to drill wells into JUB with more or less guaranteed outcomes? I mean the last g/inj into TEN doesn't seem to have arrested decline there. Rahul said "TEN continues to surprise us" on the last call. Apparently, as you have been saying booty, there is quite a large potential resource to the north of existing wells in N'tomme. Maybe they just need to understand this better with the next wells they drill there late 2022. In the meantime makes sense to get guaranteed results from JUB and once sorted move onto TEN. Also not sure if they need a 2nd manifold in N'tomme? as reckon one and only production M there has no available slots. KOS have told us the plan is to double TEN production from current levels. We should get a comprehensive view of the way forward at results. Rahul will give us a detailed explanation - he's pretty open with explaining stuff.

KOS refinanced $400m at 7.75% 4 months ago. Bang in the middle of your range.

[bootycall] 03/3/2022 10:52

Thanks @xxnjr.

So , if we are allowed to make a few more reasoned assumptions post such a hypothetical deal occurring….i would speculate that a new bond refinancing deal would be extremely likely post receipt of £562m …leading to a saving of 200-300 basis points ? Furthermore if you were to put some of that debt reduction into identified projects showing IRRs of over 140% at $80 oil …then valuations of £2 per share start to seem achievable.
Remember Jubilee production first commenced at the end of a 18 month drilling programme…With a barely utilised FPSO, operating at Ten…we could drill out Ntomme (and then later cast an eye over towards our adjacent exploration interest in the Ivory Coast). The only thing that puzzles me is, not why Rahul is so focussed on production , but why he has been far to slow addressing production decline in Ten.

[xxnjr] 03/3/2022 09:52

Reckon your numbers are bang on Booty

AOI 475m shares at @ 1C$ = C$475m = £281m

AO1 25% TLW 50% of Kenya. Equates to TLW £562m

TLW 1434m shares

562/1434 = 39.19p