Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 18/2/2022 05:55

Opening Call:

European stocks could open higher on hopes for a possible U.S.-Russia meeting. U.S. stock futures are set to rebound at the open. The dollar was steady in Asia trading. The pound continues to rally on BOE expectations for an interest rate rise. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.987% from 1.972% Thursday. Oil falls on ongoing concerns over a possible Iran nuclear deal. Gold was down.

[fizzmiss] 17/2/2022 15:34

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Fall-As-Iran-Negotiator-Says-Deal-Is-Closer-Than-Ever.html

Would I like to be invested in TLW over the weekend regarding the above, errrrrr nope, not me.

Risk reward is appallingly low due to weird share price movements by the bookkeepers and MM.

Top price 52p low price 49p, no matter how high the oil price goes, but just watch it crash and burn if oil drops into the 80s

[thommie] 17/2/2022 10:48

I just emailed IR myself now with very detailed questions on that matter and also about the exact number for the expected contingent numbers in uganda and some gas questions.I will share the answer if I get one.

[florenceorbis] 17/2/2022 10:43

FWIW





Barclays set a target price of 75 GBX for the company, which when compared to the Tullow Oil plc share price of 49 GBX at opening today (16/02/2022) indicates a potential upside of 34.7%.

[fizzmiss] 17/2/2022 09:21

Would you look at that, Red Red Red, Smug mode :)

Soon be back in the 40's as predicted, so blatant is the corrupt share price manipulation.

That Court case Raul seemingly messed up badly

[waldron] 17/2/2022 07:51

European markets set to pull back as investors track geopolitical tensions, earnings

Published Thu, Feb 17 20222:07 AM EST

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC


Key Points

The U.S. on Wednesday accused Russia of adding 7,000 troops to the 150,000 already stationed at the Ukrainian border, branding as “false” the Kremlin’s claims that it had begun a partial withdrawal of its military presence.

Global investors are also reacting to the latest meeting minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, published Wednesday.

LONDON — European stocks are set to retreat slightly on Thursday as investors continue to monitor geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, while digesting a slew of corporate earnings reports.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 34 points lower at 7,570, Germany’s DAX is set to slide around 92 points to 15,278 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to drop around 32 points to 6,933, according to IG data.

[waldron] 17/2/2022 06:39

Equities:

European stocks are set to open lower as investors continue to monitor Russia-Ukraine tensions and after Federal Reserve policymakers indicated they are leaning toward more decisive action on inflation but set no firm targets.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remained on the radar. Ukrainians took to the streets in a show of unity, while the West said it saw no sign of a promised pullback of Russian troops from Ukraine's borders.

The minutes "showed a lack of clear commitments on the size of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction," said Yeap Jun Rong of IG in a report. That suggests the Fed's attitude might be "less hawkish than previously thought."

Investors are trying to figure out how stock prices will react as the Fed withdraws economic stimulus to cool inflation that is at a four-decade high.

According to the Fed's notes, officials agreed at their January meeting that faster rate hikes would be needed "if inflation does not move down" as the central bank's policymaking committee expects.

[xxnjr] 17/2/2022 01:15

Can't get the numbers to add up Thommie. All I could come up with was this as an alternative explanation. Sometime last year TLW agreed to sell 42.5k bopd at $78 delivered in Jan 2022 as per the sold call contract. However the company, as is apparently common practise for oil producers, settled this contract financially by buying it back from the counter party at the now prevailing rate of (let's say) $86, generating a loss of $8/bbl on 42,500 bopd. This loss will be recorded further down the page somewhere in the accounts.

Separately TLW will have sold all of their January production as physical cargos at an average prevailing market and oil grade adjusted price of c.$86, the so called "post hedging price" with that price x net bbls shipped generating the revenue line.

[thommie] 16/2/2022 21:20

I dont understand what you mean subsurface. Can you explain again?

[cumnor] 16/2/2022 21:14

A few months of getting $80 a barrel and suddenly the debt becomes far less intimidating, a major factor in the suppressed share price for the past 10 years. This could be £2 with a strong POO by late spring.

[subsurface] 16/2/2022 21:00

Thanks XX and Thommie for the very informative posts,

I remember Les giving a Hedge explanation in one of his presentations I may be wrong on this but I gained the impression the hedge revolves barrels on /off over time but we always remain hedged.
I also remember Kosmos talking about the value of a cargo needs to be levelled up don,t know if anything changed.

[johnwise] 16/2/2022 20:56

15 February 2022

'Worst-case' climate predictions of a 9F rise in global temperatures by the end of the century are 'no longer plausible': Study finds we've already done enough to reduce carbon emissions to avoid those extreme scenarios

[fizzmiss] 16/2/2022 20:12

Red Red Red tomorrow petals

[thommie] 16/2/2022 19:02

The only way this is possible is, that they achieved a premium to dated brent for their oil that is far beyond the 1-2$\bbl I knew of or it is due to a very heavy overlift in january, which means the following months would have a higher percentage hedged at the 78$ cap, or my understanding of calls is totally wrong and there is a way to profit from higher prices even when it's capped?

[thommie] 16/2/2022 18:53

Joek on lse already did ask IR. So I copied the answer from lse. It's like I said. 86$ in average for unhedged AND hedged barrels!! Just unbelievable."I asked Matt at IR: Does that mean that the average of $86 is for all barrels sold in January, after paying away the amounts due where the realised price exceeds the hedge caps? He replied: Yes, that is correct and inclusive of quality Differential"

[thommie] 16/2/2022 18:33

Xxnjr, that would be a question for IR. I dont see it as sth you have to mention that all unhedged barrels were sold at 86$ in january in a rns, as it's nothing extraordinary to achieve a price for unhedged bbls like that when everyone can see the january avg brent price... I thought the reason to mention it was to say that despite hedging tlw achieved an average price of 86$, so inkl hedging losses. I think they could have made it more clear whats the case...

[trevor1234] 16/2/2022 17:55

Regarding the Norwegian court case yesterday. do we still own this field or is it one of the ones we sold
If we do own it what is happening with it

[djderry] 16/2/2022 17:54

Tilenga,the gift that keeps on giving.

[crazi] 16/2/2022 15:37

Oil ramping up again. Back to $94. Will it hit $100 next week as predicted by the media...?

[zingaro] 16/2/2022 15:32

Well, I supposer you could read "post hedging price" as all the barrels sold after the ones sold @ the hedging price.

[xxnjr] 16/2/2022 14:48

I was also pleasantly surprised by the post hedging pricing Thommie. For Ghana the only price that counts is the price on and around the day ± a few days of an actual TLW cargo shipping date. Typically every 3rd JUB loading is a TLW cargo. Petrocom Dec showed 20/Dec cargo as TLW. Next 3 shipments were 30/Dec (last yr, doesn't count), 11/Jan (OP c. $81 to $84) and 21/Jan (OP $86 to $88). If the next 3rd cargo was TLW then that would have been the OP. Looks like it was and we got lucky. The next 3rd cargo is due in about 5, or 6 days - we may just have got lucky again :)

TEN also shipped on 24th Jan. That also may have been ours as our last cargo was 3rd Oct (4 TEN shipments ago). In fact would say that WAS ours. If so the OP would also have been c.$86 to $88.

Post hedging price still a bit of a mystery though.....