Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[datait] 09/12/2019 13:20

You have also taken a huge gamble here but I was not even in this to begin with so for the sake of 5k its not the end of the world.



whites123 - 09 Dec 2019 - 09:37:58 - 35964 of 36070 Tullow Oil PLC - Poised for a Takeover? - TLW
I glanced through and saw a comment wondering what I was up to..

Do I like this.... Hell No..
But, the portfolio of exploration is still good.
Fields operated by partners are still good.
Forecast for next three years is still good (Albeit guidance is down by circa 10%)

Its an absolute mess... Its a disaster...

I have therefore added another token gesture £60k at .5775 and £20k @ .575 which has bought my average down to a figure which I believe will easily be surpassed.

Dont fret :-)

[ammu12] 09/12/2019 13:18

Debt is the issue...All that money spend on an asset which will not pay of

[datait] 09/12/2019 13:16

whites im not convinced its going to come good, liked I said I have taken a huge gamble here.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 13:14

DATAIT9 Dec '19 - 12:48 - 36112 of 36121
0 0 1
well after a 64% drop to get in now is a fair gamble in my book.
DATAIT9 Dec '19 - 12:48 - 36113 of 36121
0 0 1
50.98 was my price

Despicable commentary from you all morning, and then this.
Doubtless you will want your round of applause when it goes up (Which it surely will)
And as a holder I want it to benefit you as it goes up, but you dear sir are the kind of person I despise as you try your hardest to cause fear and worry whilst the motive is actually to try and benefit yourself.. Despicable traits of human nature.
But regards TLW the drop is massively overdone and I look forward to seeing it improve in the coming days, weeks and months. (I suspect you will have moved on attempting to cause more fear and worry on other stocks to try and benefit yourself)

[badger36] 09/12/2019 13:13

You could buy a CBE. I'm sure Royalty and respectability are an oxymoron

[pally12] 09/12/2019 13:08

Took a huge loss here bad news comes in 3s go got a feeling what is coming

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 13:07

50p RIP
40p
30p
etc

[dijon52] 09/12/2019 13:07

20p decent buy in price

[mirabeau] 09/12/2019 12:58

Oil and gas producer and explorer Tullow Oil (TLW) has revealed major issues across the business less than a month after trimming production guidance and announcing a shock negative result at its Guyana offshore prospects. Chief executive Paul McDade and exploration director Angus McCoss are both out the door effective immediately after the run of poor performance.

Investors looked for a quick exit on the news, causing a massive sell-off and sending Tullow’s share price down by 60 per cent to 57p.

The company has cut 2020 guidance to 70,000-80,0000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), down from the 87,000 bopd in 2019, and average production guidance over the next three years is down to an average of 70,000 bopd, compared with Panmure Gordon’s forecast of 100,000 bopd.

The biggest year-on-year fall between 2019 and 2020 is expected to be the TEN field in Ghana, with production falling from 28,700 bopd this year to 23,000 bopd. Tullow has struggled with TEN this year and said the guidance cut came from mechanical issues and "faster than anticipated decline" at the Enyanra area.

The company kept its forecast of 2019 free cash flow of $350m (£266m), but said this would fall by $200m in 2020 and has suspended the dividend.

Chairman Dorothy Thompson has taken on Mr McDade’s responsibilities, and CFO Les Wood has stayed on. Ms Thompson said the dramatic set of changes would eventually improve the company’s performance. “We are taking decisive action to restore performance, reduce our base and deliver sustainable free cash flow,” she said.

The Ghana and Guyana issues during the year were accompanied by Tullow choosing to let a farm-out deal for its Lake Albert project in Uganda expire in August over a stalemate with the government. The arrangement would have seen Tullow cut its share from 33 per cent to 11.8 per cent for $900m.

The high point in recent months was the initial exploration success at the Guyana offshore wells Jethro and Joe. Excitement over Jethro in August sent the share price over 200p. But last month Tullow and its partners on the project deflated market hopes after further testing showed heavy crude oil at Joe and Jethro instead of the expected light oil.

IC View

When we moved our Tullow recommendation from hold to sell a year ago, it was the company’s balance sheet that was flashing warning signs. Its debt has come down since then, but the operational performance and portfolio management has become the issue. While the company can’t be blamed for the Guyana wells’ disappointing quality, it did hype them up as “substantial and high value”, in the words of Mr McDade. This could still be the case at the project, but not at the Jethro and Joe deposits. The Uganda situation is more indicative of decision-making problems: reaching deals with governments is the bread and butter of the extractives industry, and the $900m from Lake Albert would have been very useful as a cushion from the collapse in medium-term production. Sell.

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[amaretto1] 09/12/2019 12:55

70,000 bpd for next 3 years......Or less.......Oil at 60 or under......Company in this shape ... EQUALS BUST !!!!! FACT.

[amaretto1] 09/12/2019 12:53

This is a MAJOR GAMBLE !!!

[careful] 09/12/2019 12:53

just bought some.
could not resist a punt.

[ny boy] 09/12/2019 12:52

Lol

First dip in 50p see what happens over the coming weeks. I was buying (BAB) in the 400’s when there was lots of doomsayers, now 600p, heading for 700p

Buying of all stocks is a gamble, just got to reduce the risk by choosing what hopes is a good entry point.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 09/12/2019 12:51

and 32.87 is probably going to be your sell price...

[datait] 09/12/2019 12:49

pmsl CHESTY1 nice to see you nice hahahaha

[chesty1] 09/12/2019 12:49

why are you wasting so much money this is nothing but a huge gamble

5 mins later he is buying in lol !

[datait] 09/12/2019 12:48

50.98 was my price

[datait] 09/12/2019 12:48

well after a 64% drop to get in now is a fair gamble in my book.

[volsung] 09/12/2019 12:46

Please do Datait

[datait] 09/12/2019 12:43

I have taken a 5k punt on them but not going to hold my breath see what happens.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 12:42

"why are you wasting so much money this is nothing but a huge gamble"

Far from it IMO.
Producing assets.
Great exploration permits and portfolio
No near term debt maturities ($1 Billion headroom)
Multiple newsflow anticipated (Any one could be good)
Share price decimated as the herd jump off the cliff.

[ny boy] 09/12/2019 12:42

Lucky my FOXT profits have balanced out the losses here but will look for a new lower entry once I can check the technical support levels. Catch a falling knife a present though, maybe in the 40’s but just guessing really, let the dust settle.

Presumably they have enough cash to turn this around, without a cash call?

[knowing] 09/12/2019 12:41

LOL all the derampers out as usual

[datait] 09/12/2019 12:40

This looks to be going below 50p when will it stop ??????