Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[stoneme] 09/12/2019 11:41

With respect, as I am sure it is due, the factors which drive 'free cash flow' are variable. What I believe today's news tells you is that those factors are now questionable. . If Oil prices fall, if production forecasts fall further, what happens to your cash flow forecasts. As I said risk v reward materially changes today. I still see 40p being tested.

[phillis] 09/12/2019 11:41

?
Free cash flow is $150m after CAPEX of $350m
Conservative bopd per day for sure
Should be fine unless poo tanks

[hsfinch] 09/12/2019 11:41

Shareholders have been shafted whilst senior management and staff have made millions. If only you knew about the scale of salaries, perks and pay-offs at Tullow...investors should be calling the cops.

[badger36] 09/12/2019 11:40

If you really want to see how it is played Look at the pump last Wednesday Tullow Oil: Reanimating The Thesis $TUWLF https://seekingalpha.com/article/4311264

[hoper2] 09/12/2019 11:38

whites123 - I think that the current headroom is with $350 million of free cashflow. The predicted free cashflow for next year is $150 million. With predicted production to get lower in the years following 2020 I find it hard to share your confidence. However, I wish you well with your investment, it certainly wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong - if indeed I am!

[costax1654x] 09/12/2019 11:38

Next hit is Carapa,I presume

[stupmy] 09/12/2019 11:38

Must admit I thought I'd already posted this. I've entered at around 55. I still don't have the buy signal I was waiting for, but have entered on the hopefully optimistic view that price is stabilising around here for the day. If I get my buy signal I will add. Sorry if this turns up twice.

[newswseller] 09/12/2019 11:35

You clearly don't know what free cash flow means

[stoneme] 09/12/2019 11:33

I could , but why don't you check yourself? It's not pretty. But like you, I am waiting for the right price to take a punt . . Not yet though. Bottom line is they cannot service their debts from the current production level. Which we all know means a few things WILL happen before this had any chance of a recovery.

[goblin99] 09/12/2019 11:33

I'd suggest if you're having to ask them perhaps not an investment for you - unless of course you're looking for a quick trade?

[rayrac] 09/12/2019 11:33

More buys than sells! Surely small sells are not driving this?!

[goblin99] 09/12/2019 11:31

True and wise words. The question is how low will this go - no one knows. Once clarity is regained, and a strategy with the interim/new bid, then we may see some sustained stability. Until then, who knows

[peteark] 09/12/2019 11:31

Not invested here but looking

Could anyone tell me what the current debt levels are?

Thanks

[whites123] 09/12/2019 11:31

@Whites

Assets galore yes BUT if POO falls to $50-55 then they;d be a "FORCED SELLER" surely?
ie the Vultures would circle.

"very easy to sell off a single asset or part thereof and reduce debt significantly"

great, let's see them do it.Proof is in the pudding after all and such a move would go a long way to reducing the negativity here.


Its only day 1 of a new dawning.....
They have cleared the decks of the old guard which is essentially what every man and his dog were demanding.
Ms Thompson CBE has provided a full status of where we are right now. (Unless she is lying?)
Bad news has been priced in and some.
POO shows no real reason why it should drop below $60 and certainly below $50, especially with OPEC agreeing to further reduce output (Also consider Aramaco flotation)
With in excess of $1 Billion liquidity headroom we would need to see a prolonged depressed POO price..
Today the stock is in the hands of lunatics and normality will return.
Looking more fully at the news that has caused this catastrophic fall it is actually quite difficult to justify the severity.
New updated guidance suggest 75,000 bopd for 2020, against guidance of 87,000 bopd for 2019, yet a fall of some 70% against share price when guidance was reviewed.
If Ms Thompson is over egging 2020 guidance and more warnings are forthcoming her head will be on the block... Or, would she have been prudent and used worst case figures so when production does exceed guidance it shows the turnaround is working and the new people at the helm (Whoever they may be) were worth the likely huge salaries and share options they will be commanding.

[costax1654x] 09/12/2019 11:29

40p support,shouldn't go below

[rrb] 09/12/2019 11:27

There are so many factors at play here. The company has always loved leverage and it got way too confident and too leveraged during the $100 oil days. Oil prices have peaked and we will only see intermittent spikes on short term supply/geopolitical issues. I can't see $100 again, unless USD collapses and we get a war in Mid East. In addition to this, Tullow-specific, there will be a lot of investors in the debt that will hedge with equity shorts because CDS are either too expensive or not liquid/available. We have seen this in many over-leveraged companies recently. Finally, we have the overall 'kill UK madcap' trade, which has annihilated so many UK madcaps in last 2-3 years. That will turn as soon as we have clarity (who will lead the country) and Brexit.

Anyway, I wish you all the best of luck. If I was long, I would not be puking here. Instead, I would buy. Your downside is the debt-for-equity swap fear-mongers are talking about but the numbers don't support that. Your upside is maybe 100-200% if they can take some positive steps, find a credible CEO, sell all or some of one of the assets to cut debt. That will transform the prospects for TLW.

[plentymorefish] 09/12/2019 11:26

RRB - Cheers for the response. ATB

[teamwork1] 09/12/2019 11:24

I've given up ?

[sharekitchen1974] 09/12/2019 11:24

What's Uganda stake worth?

[crossing_the_rubicon] 09/12/2019 11:19

@Whites

Assets galore yes BUT if POO falls to $50-55 then they'd be a "FORCED SELLER" surely?
ie the Vultures would circle.

"very easy to sell off a single asset or part thereof and reduce debt significantly"

Great, let's see them do it.Proof is in the pudding after all and such a move would go a long way to reducing the negativity here.

[rossowheels] 09/12/2019 11:15

They likely have hedges to protect from downside oil price and, although assets in ground are good, it's getting them above ground that is the issue here.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 11:14

"What they don't say is that if the POO drops to $55 per barrel and production is at the predicted levels, they are in serious trouble with their debt. Unless the price of oil rises to about the $70 mark (and stays there) they will almost certainly have to do a massive right's issue."


LOL... And I do really LOL at comments such as this.
In excess of $1 Billion liquidity headroom...
Assets galore...
Restructuring in progress, very easy to sell off a single asset or part therof and reduce debt significantly.

News for you as well... OPEC recently agreed to reduce output further..
A $55 POO price would see many oil juniors failing before TLW ...
Love your enthusiasm though... and doubtless much more credibility than Ms Thompson CBE