Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[knowing] 16/11/2018 15:40

Maybe it still wants to test 180

[knowing] 16/11/2018 14:43

Chance of a divi

[alfiex] 16/11/2018 13:59

Can't get my head round this, oil up $1.5 and Tullow down, seems like PMO privates getting shafted

[mariopeter] 15/11/2018 13:35

Year start net debt was $3.5b. Predicted to end $2.8b.

Big news here is Farm-down approval on Uganda still expected end of 2018 (6 weeks). That would re-rate Tullow (not cause of the $200m+$50m short term receipts) but because that $800m deferred consideration becomes a reality as does Ugandan oil production.

Guyana accelerated to June..ish but believe that when they sign a rig.

Yes the accrued legal case costs will have all hit cash-flow in July.

Looks like TEN at max gross 80000 for 2019 and Jubilee still well below max gross of 120000 going into 2019.

[xxnjr1] 15/11/2018 09:48

thanks for that frazboy. And also the 2019 debt reduction numbers. At least the operations aspects of todays update were positive. Looking for this to recover in 2019, with hopefully, good news coming out of Guyana. Shame about the macro: oil prices and markets.

[frazboy] 15/11/2018 09:26

I don't think provisions affect cash flow xxnjr. I think of them more as to smooth profits/losses

[teamwork1] 15/11/2018 08:21

Do you think will see 2.60 any time soon?

[frazboy] 15/11/2018 08:15

xx...

if we take out the Seadrill payment (which I really hope is exceptional!) and the Uganda payment then debt is ~$2800m, which, which is a debt reduction of nearer $300m.

i'm estimating net debt YE 2019 of around ~$2200m assuming $70 poo and given the higher marginal tax rate they now pay

[xxnjr1] 15/11/2018 08:10

yep rationaleee - smoke and mirrors job!

[frazboy] 15/11/2018 08:08

yes, it does, and it includes the Seadrill exceptionals

[rationaleee] 15/11/2018 07:59

But that debt fig. assumes Uganda farmdown payment right? Which just recently Uganda oil min. mentioned, has been pushed into '19?

[xxnjr1] 15/11/2018 07:58

..... Net Debt was/forecast to be

$3471m end 2017
$3082m end 1H18
$3000m end 2018Y (excluding $200m Uganda proceeds).

2H 18 debt reduction only circa $82m

[frazboy] 15/11/2018 07:13

Debt figure better than I was expecting

[mccracken227] 14/11/2018 18:04

I think it will be like climbing Everest to get back to £2.60 again

[knowing] 14/11/2018 15:32

Was going to say have TLW shares not seen the rise today in oil

[mcsean2164] 14/11/2018 10:27

Oil reversing....

IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
Free slides

I don't think the slump will last....

Great opportunity for new investors imho, also assuming TLW doesn't mess up it's opportunities...

[mcsean2164] 14/11/2018 08:57

I should have sold at 320p!

[teamwork1] 14/11/2018 08:10

I should have sold at 2.53. It will be a while before this share recovers. So disappointed

[xxnjr1] 14/11/2018 08:02

the longs are in disaray.

[knowing] 14/11/2018 00:14

Well amazed at the drop in the price of oil after the close. Not seen anything like it for years.

[alfiex] 13/11/2018 18:47

If oil keeps going down the suppprt will go down

[supermarky] 13/11/2018 17:40

Looking bad here unfortunately

[daler1966] 13/11/2018 17:31

180p it is then...