Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[fraserdean] 31/10/2018 09:10

Thanks guys

[alfiex] 31/10/2018 09:06

May get some news on update 15th November

[xxnjr1] 31/10/2018 08:52

Maybe going to drill 2 wells on Orinduik next year? If so, we won't hear about it until the Capital Markets Day?

[xxnjr1] 30/10/2018 23:42

Q3's out from Anadarko tonight, which are clean production numbers without turret insurance.

Period Jubilee TEN Total
2018_Q1 64.0 69.0 133.0
2018_Q2 68.0 61.5 129.5
2018_Q3 94.3 62.6 156.9

KOS have 24.1% of Jubilee and 17.0% of TEN.
TLW have 35.5% of Jubilee and 47.2% of TEN
According to my back of envelope calculation Q3 over Q2 working interest production in Ghana increased by

KOS 24.1%
TLW 18.5%
Above are working interest production gains. The actual revenue gain for TLW will be less than implied, as increasing Jubilee production will result in lower turret insurance payments.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Anadarko's Q3 Ops Report comments:-

 In the 3rd quarter, gross production from the Jubilee and TEN development averaged approximately 94,300 BOPD and 62,600 BOPD, respectively.
 During the quarter, production wells were completed in both the TEN and Jubilee fields and subsequently brought on line. Both wells are performing in line with pre- drill expectations. A second Jubilee production well is expected to be on line in the 4th quarter.
The Maersk Venturer rig is progressing on the completion of a Jubilee water injection well. The Stena Forth rig arrived in Ghana and spud a TEN production well in early October. The partnership plans for the Stena Forth to focus on drilling operations while the Maersk Venturer is focused on completions operations.

[xxnjr1] 30/10/2018 18:25

According to their forecast, net debt/EBITDAX will fall from 2.2X post transaction to 1.2X within 18 months. Assumes Brent $71.39 2018 and $74.44 2019.

$74.44 for 2019 maybe a tad optimistic with US Shale probably accelerating and demand de-accelerating.

Can't remember exactly but KOS's "Loss of Income" insurance for Jubilee Turret Fiasco expired some time ago. So none of those nice monthly cheques TLW have been getting. OTOH increasing Jubilee production should benefit KOS going forward to a greater degree.

[mariopeter] 30/10/2018 16:39

Had a look at Kosmos. They just did an acquisition doubling net debt to $2b. They had very little free cash flow in 2017 (long term debt fell $40m despite EBITDAX of $540m. Falling oil price and increasing interest rates. Market has taken fright. They say they will generate good free cash flow in Q4 but what does that mean?

Market does not like big debt and seemingly undisciplined CAPEX unlike Tullow where there is lots of fcf and restricted CAPEX.

[xxnjr1] 30/10/2018 15:36

Bp re-iterated today: FID on Tortue Phase 1 (2.5mtpa) anticipated by year end.

[fraserdean] 30/10/2018 14:43

Yep, it just seems very overdone given Tortue (and next phases)/E Guinea/GoM, expro is always worth less but seems to have been worth more there, very tempted.

[xxnjr1] 30/10/2018 13:55

It's only gone from $9.65 to $6.00!
Probably just a re-rating post Pontoenoe.
Lot's of people/II's hold KOS for the exploration upside.
Risking of that upside has now come down.
Unless one of the Private Equity backers are going to offer a load of shares? But why would they at these prices? I tipped my toe in the water yesterday. But keeping a wary eye on the macro b4 going in full on.

[fraserdean] 30/10/2018 12:24

Off topicish, but anyone got any reasoning for the continued Kosmos drop? Very tempted as the drop has been so severe but I can't see the reason why it has underperformed so badly compared to a badly performing sector. Am I missing summat?

[alfiex] 29/10/2018 15:34

2.15 close?

[mccracken227] 29/10/2018 11:24

Roll on 15th November and maybe update will kick start this share

[oilretire] 29/10/2018 05:03

Slowly moving in the right direction in Uganda, CNOOC looking to contract local procurement & construction companies....

[mariopeter] 27/10/2018 15:59

Still a bit mild

[jw121] 26/10/2018 16:50

The law of the sod.....oil rallies to a high for the week late on Friday afternoon. By the time the markets open on Monday morning will almost certainly be back down at $75/$76

[teamwork1] 26/10/2018 16:36

Big buy at the close

[mariopeter] 26/10/2018 14:25

I am thrilled we are leaving Namibia. Look at CHAR and its chart for the last 10 years.

[mariopeter] 26/10/2018 14:18

Its easier than you think. The temperatures in the northern hemisphere have been mild but now definitely cooling so usage has been lower than usual in recent weeks.

US production is still stuck at below 11 mbopd. Iran happening next week. Very big gasoline draws disclosed by the EIA last week. IF you look through a higher vix on the Dow (Wall ST loves loves loves Trump so not worried)then all I can see is shortages in the oil market arising in November especially if it turns really cold.

[subsurface] 26/10/2018 14:09

yes very disappointed , we give the gas away in Ghana and ExxonMobil are the preferred partner
Eco Atlantic said the main reason behind Tullow's decision is that its own farm-in partner, ONGC, is withdrawing from the project.can we then claim from ONGC?
ss

[teamwork1] 26/10/2018 13:11

Never thought we would be trading at 2.12 so disappointed

[mariopeter] 26/10/2018 12:59

Had a holiday from here and back in on smaller scale.

"Eco has received a formal notice from Tullow Namibia Limited, in accordance with the JV parties 2014 Farm Out Agreement, confirming that it is unable to either enter into the Second Renewa. l Period under the PEL30 license ("Cooper Block") or to make a financial commitment to drilling on the BlockThe 2014 Farm Out Agreement required Tullow to make a financial commitment to drilling one exploration well before renewing its interest in the Second Renewal Period in Q1 2019, and, in the event that a well was not drilled having entered the Second Renewal Period, pay Eco a significant penalty."



My interpretation of that is enter the 2nd renewal period and you would have to pay a penalty. In actual fact Tullow are not entering the second renewal period therefore no penalty. Agree with XX small beer anyway.


Further, there is GREAT news here in that Guyana is to be accelerated as although nothing is certain, it appears that there is oil on the block beside a more recent Exxon drill. ECO is interesting too but timing !

[xxnjr1] 26/10/2018 11:48

Tullow seem to be very willing to farm into stuff all over the place then regret it. OTOH TLW haven't been much good at farming out a lot of their stuff!

[mccracken227] 26/10/2018 11:44

It will be significant, but if a large amount, why not do the one drill required it may have been more cost effective, surely someone has made that decision regarding the costs of both options.