Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[puzzler2] 05/3/2016 17:37

LEONIDAS - you appear to change your mind with the direction of the wind - doesn't do anything for your credibility, I'm afraid.


LEONIDAS - 26 Feb 2016 - 09:21:23 - 25845 of 26044
Bought some more and my average from 179 is now 170 bought them outright and waiting for oil to go up to 60 dollar before selling,it may take a while but at 60 dollar the share price could well be above the 325 to 350,any view??

LEONIDAS - 03 Mar 2016 - 14:33:26 - 25942 of 26044
look like the party is over sold my holding at 193............will sit and wait good luck to all.

[leonidas] 05/3/2016 13:34

2.50 + DREAMER..................

[milliecusto] 05/3/2016 12:45

Well oil climb another 3% after London markets closed,so can see this hitting 2.50 plus on Monday.

[oilretire] 05/3/2016 12:44

POO will dictate what happens on Monday............. it closed last night knocking on the door of $39, and if that holds or continues to gain, a big drop is very unlikely.

[leonidas] 05/3/2016 12:07

regrettably I can see a big drop on Monday,this rise from 147.50 to 217 can no longer continue................

[cestnous] 05/3/2016 11:59

I really did like that article Leo

[gersemi] 05/3/2016 11:37

It is the value of the dollar that really determines oil and commodity prices at any given time. Superimpose the WTI (or Brent) chart upon the dollar index chart and you will be shocked at the pattern. When the oil price fell off a cliff mid-2014 look at the dollar. You will see the dollar index roar northwards waving hello as it flew passed the oil price falling southwards

The world is now more about asset classes that can be bought or sold in an instant rather than the core fundamentals of a commodity's supply and demand

We are all struggling against the time value of money

[oilretire] 05/3/2016 09:21

there are lots of wells already drilled in the US that will be brought back online if poo goes above 40 us


Is there really that many? I doubt it. Certainly not wells that are as quick to open as your kitchen tap. Maybe some that are awaiting down hole completions or topside work to bring online?

I would have thought cash flow is king at the moment - regardless if it's making a loss on the true 'break even price' IMHO, so anything that is currently flowable without further capex will be online trying to keep the wolves from the door.

And if the wolves do arrive and another operator or the banks get to 'steal' your asset they will keep the wells flowing - they might not have been profitable for you, but they will be for the new owner at a new lower 'break even' and the wells will continue to flow.....

So as I said, I doubt that there is that much spare capacity is available at the turn of a tap.

There will need to be a sustained stable period of $40+ for capex to be approved to move mothballed wells, projects, appraisals, explo etc forward.

[hearts1] 05/3/2016 09:20

Landsdowne are still well in profit as they opened theirs high.Odey are down but you can't take one position with any ii. For example they could be long oil, short TLW, as a hedge, so still be making money.I think the key thing is that it shows that short positions are irrelevant to short term price changes.Warning signs are when directors are selling, such as Genel where it usually means things are not so good.

[jovi1] 05/3/2016 08:57

Hearts
USA cost to shipping east to west coast is a lot more than to Europa as there is s stipulation that only tanker with all USA personnel cover cost to cost transport this make more expensive that transport in or out of USA from Europa especially in the carry gasoline on the way back

[leoneobull] 05/3/2016 08:51

Doesn't seem to show any shorts closing yet. Apparently one did close a fraction of 1.6m shares. This week's rise was poo-related only. Question is why didn't they start closing ? Suppose they may have long positions too? But those listed tend to be short specialists e.g. odey lansdowne

[hearts1] 05/3/2016 01:06

The US refineries are set up for medium / heavy crude as historically this is what they imported.US exports have limited market as the shipping costs make it unattractive unless there is more divergence from Brent.Apart from US the majority of additional oil inventories have been taken by increased SPR of China and India, circa 200m barrels.Iranian increases after ban have not been as large as they stated given most western banks won't give credit to their sales.

[jovi1] 05/3/2016 00:11

Day I would not be surprise seeing poo going back down but I am very confident on the long run and as I explained some time ago I am not in hurry to sell actually I already have the date in mind and is not before the end on 2020,
More importantly I don't believe that the oil in storage is all of good quality too.
Epa figure do not report the difference between crude and condensate of all different quality.
In shale there is a lot of poor condensate especially the sour stuff from Canada and with oil so low if must be a lot harder to shift.
I suspect this is the only reason why USA lift the ban on export and I suspect too that all export is condensate
Having done my calculation on the usual napkin I estimate that condensate account for more that 23% eventually this will come to play and will support price especially Brent
The people that will loose the most from all this are the refinery in USA especially from the west coast as gasoline imports will increase with tanker coming back from Europa
Good luck you all

[leoneobull] 04/3/2016 22:45

Nice to see the House of Saud suffer given their policy on locking up minors on death rowhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/11/saudi-arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-us-oil-industry-buckles/

[wodahsnoom] 04/3/2016 22:43

I agree - now where's that spliff

[daybreakers] 04/3/2016 21:03

Are you guys really upbeat about wti rise, coz I very much doubt it will last long, it will be back down again next week to $30 imo

[hearts1] 04/3/2016 20:38

I don't agree that Shale will start pumping a lot more at $40. More like $60. $40 does not include debt repayment and they would need further lending for start up capex.

[jovi1] 04/3/2016 19:40

Hi Leone and book

I suspect almost everyone will want the refinance to susside as with in in place production will be more likely to be capped that if company go burst.
It is true that there are many well in reserve but the majority will need 55 to 60 a barrel effort been profitable and there is little point to start to pump at 40ish in many cases as they will only be operationally viable but as you pump away your reserve you need start to pay your debit and that cannot happen at current prices.
Some one will larger hedge will give it a go but will not be much.
I suspect will be a shortage on oil in next few years as banks many not withdraw loans but will not supply much for expansion until the green note start coming back home.
28 billion barrels estimate in projects have been cancelled or delayed until after 2021 that will need a lot of fraking to make up in quantity and quality
May talk about fondamental not been good but the ultimate fact is the world need the oil and to make sufficient amount in the long run price need be at least above 45 possibly much more to cope with underinvestment that's we are seeing today.
The agreement to cap production will probably last as no one can pump more that they have soon until now and with capex reduction OPEC and no OPEC will see production deep maybe the exemption been Iran but they will not add millions as those prices
As Saudi and Russia have underinvested and over produced so far I would be no surprise if they agree to cut production mostly to save the face of their politicians if they'd don't production will come down anyway .
As I say in January and February oil will get to 38 in March and today I just notice that we are there, sure we may keep going up or back down but sound oil company investment is the best risk for profit ration we have in this market.
For people not investing in O&G (rafinery excluded for me) they should not invest or buy safe bonds as if we see oil at sub 20 banks and the whole market will suffer with an Big Bang like 2008 if not worst.
Any one believe in oil at 130 in 2017 - 2018?
Well I will not bank on it but I see that much more likely that oil at 20 for more that a week or so.
Sorry for the poor English and good luck

[leoneobull] 04/3/2016 18:33

Bookbroker is right in that there are lots of wells already drilled in the US that will be brought back online if poo goes above 40 us.Well done all holders. Amazing rise

[mcsean2164] 04/3/2016 18:27

Bookbroker, it doesn't work like that. Cap ex has been massively hit in non OPEC, lots of projects shelved...

[mattmcdowell] 04/3/2016 17:34

Anybody guess a good buy in price? I reckon 1.7 will be the next dip.

[sp1972] 04/3/2016 17:21

Oil currently at $38.54, roll on a nice start on Monday