Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 25/2/2016 07:15

Oil price crashes and comebacks.. A historical perspective posted on lse https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13459865/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-24%20at%2022.05.21.png

[mcsean2164] 24/2/2016 23:37

Interesting from Deloitte.



How will a low cost oil producer be viewed in light of such bankruptcies?

[mcsean2164] 24/2/2016 20:38

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Feb 24, 2016 15:30 3.502M 3.427M 2.147M

[leoneobull] 24/2/2016 18:44

Gapa uppa brent at 34.20http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2016/02/24/crude-oil-price-ticks-higher-of-smaller-than-expected-inventory-increase/

[leeshindig] 24/2/2016 18:23

early birds will catch the worm tomorrow. Gap up, oils flying.

[volsung] 24/2/2016 14:35

A wee bit glad I sold out of GLEN, TLW and BP yesterday. Also sold my KAZ but it hasn't gone down so much

[ny boy] 24/2/2016 14:32

Needs to close above 150p or a potential drop back to test 120p support area.

[mcsean2164] 24/2/2016 13:21

Yep,

ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 4.48% ↓ -0.11% 2016-02-22

[leoneobull] 24/2/2016 13:08

DOWN shorts

[leoneobull] 24/2/2016 12:52

Oil price sank after new remarks from oil ministers dampened feasibility of an oil output freeze, and a huge build in US stocks. The debacle remains heated with Nigeria, the largest oil producer in Africa, backing the deal, whereas Iran’s oil minister made clear it was not acceptable due to members’ widely divergent production. At an energy conference in Houston, Saudi Arabia reinstated a no-no to its own cut out of distrust for other members.

Inventories report by American Petroleum Institute came out early Asia time with a build of 7.1 million barrels, versus 2.03 million barrels forecasted for Department of Energy data tomorrow. After last week’s conflicting figures with DoE, today’s API may simply be a balancing act although oil market will no doubt take it negatively.

[leoneobull] 24/2/2016 12:37

FROM III

everyone must make their own judgements regarding risk but the main point of long term investment is to ride out the hard times and benefit from the good times, not to sell out at the lows simply because someone else has made the mistake of short selling at the those lows and has access to enough of other people's money to make strong attempts to avoid the consequences. IMHO I think that we are seeing that sort of activity in both the oil commodity market and the stock market. Of course that increases risk but TLW has been through this sort of situation in the past. The latest accounts show, imho, that they have the management skill and the strength to see it through to the good times.

Attacks on TLW invariably either ignore the fundamentals or present them far too pessimistically. The important facts are:

(1) Despite low production costs the likes of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are dependent on oil and running at huge budget deficits. Venezuela is already on skid row, Saudi needs at least $106 per barrel and that figure increases with time. Iran's prospects are poor in a low price environment, despite their posturing. You could compare their current tactics to those of a couple of drunks swinging punches at each other, missing and falling on the hard floor and then rolling around unconcerned about how they will feel in the morning.

(2) TLW has good free cash flow that will become significantly positive with TEN even at a low oil price. It has also retained a significant cash reserve to protect itself against any adverse occurrences in the development of TEN. That risk reduces by the day, if things continue to run to plan as well as they have so far then that money will be used to repay debt.

(3) The naysayers ignore the value of TLW's assets, particularly in view of the cuts in exploration that have occurred.

(4) TLW has never paid a big dividend. It has concentrated on growth and has been impressively successful in achieving that growth through good times and bad.

We are bound to see a succession of "flash crashes" in the oil price in this sort of situation. That's how the markets operate these days. Governments are by no means the major offenders when it comes to market interference, in fact they don't do enough to prevent interference.

As for your comment about governments not allowing companies to go bust, I see no evidence that they are doing anything to protect the oil industry, in stark contrast to what we saw in relation to the finance industry in 2008, enabling those huge bonuses to continue through the hard times. On the contrary, there are now a significant number of oil industry bankruptcies in the US.

If you did sell up in July then you avoided a big chunk of the dip. That would suggest that your current best interest might be to take advantage of the recovery, and you are clearly still interested in TLW.

[azalea] 24/2/2016 12:03

The prime weapon used by the Saudis against its greatest enemies is money, which its wields via maintaining high oil production and consequential low oil prices. Other than funding opposition groups in Syria and defending itself against attacks by rebels on its borders and bombing them in Yemen, where it os being funded and supplied with weapons by Iran; it has no need to get itself engaged in a direct military conflict not of its own choosing. Neither Putin,or any other substantial military force is going to attack Saudi Arabia, which is backed by the USA.

[ny boy] 24/2/2016 11:33

Bb57 ..Why do I need to be here on a blue day, it's irrelevant, I think I read the market quite well, always look at the bigger picture and use technical chart analysis as a guide.

I would be a buyer if these if I thought they can survive this terrible rout, so far I am not, if they get above 300p again, maybe, I am only drip feeding into BP as I see that as a more likely survivor,that is well placed to cherry pick over the ones that fail. Still I am not sure the bottom is even in there, early March could be defining moment if a lower low, or final capitulation low is to be put in, a bit like the 2008/2009 move.

See how it plays out but for sure plenty of volatility ahead, it's more of a traders market for now.

[puzzler2] 24/2/2016 11:31

The Saudis might wish to reflect on whether there is an alternative to taking out the competition via financial pressure. Competition could be taken out by force, something that I'm sure Putin won't have lost sight of - that is if he can engineer it without any mud sticking on Russia.

[d1nga] 24/2/2016 11:28

Family values to change the bearing in the swivel is a full s/d , will take approx. two to four weeks

[azalea] 24/2/2016 11:25

ZULU002
You clown. Of course its about money. That is precisely why the Saudis are not cutting production, which would boost the p.o.o. and in turn benefit Russia and to a lesser extent Iran(higher production costs),its two greatest enemies

[zulu002] 24/2/2016 11:02

azalea - don't be ridiculous they couldn't give a damn. It is all about money.

[bakedbean57] 24/2/2016 10:32

Strong volume today but this is being kept in an unusually tight trading band today, will go up by 5 or down by 5 it's block moving atm.

[azalea] 24/2/2016 10:23

The 'game' being played by the Saudis is a very serious one, directly aimed against Russia for committing criminal acts od war together with Assad of Syria , by murdering tens of thousands of unarmed civilians men,women and children through starvation and bombing of towns and villages across western Syria.

The IEA recently stated that the over supply of oil would continue into 2017.

[bakedbean57] 24/2/2016 10:22

NY I notice you are never here on blue days why is that?

[ny boy] 24/2/2016 10:01

Important for this one to hold 150p support now.

[cumnor] 24/2/2016 09:07

Family values-I expect there will be remedial work or even full replacement affecting production for several weeks but loss of revenue at this poo is irrelevant and once announced could be a positive as this seems factored in. The issue for TLW is will it survive another year or two while the Saudis play out their little game. As we all know-with a huge drop in capex across the industry and fields depleting or not being upgraded (Iran) poo will rocket at some stage and TLW, (if it is around) will with billions in reserves and going on to 200k a day production, multi bag. Shale will be severely wounded after this but will in a limited way benefit as well but you will never see the huge investment again once investors and banks have learned their lesson. Future investors will demand a premium as they now know they could see their money evaporate on the whim of an Arab telling Bloomberg the floodgates (at $10 a barrell) will be opened at any time. The US banks and shale investors are imo the real target of the Arabs imo and it will take another year before the real damage is done. Look at JPMs statement re write offs yesterday. Only the beginning. Will Tlw survive. I think it will and oil demand is increasing worldwide. imo