Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[eipgam] 06/3/2016 13:31

Thanks for your advice, Leonidas.

Please post a picture of your Lamborghini. And your yacht.

[leonidas] 06/3/2016 13:21

I predict that TLW will be well under the 200p by friday I am calling it between 180 to 185p.Any one in profit should sell tomorrow morning first thinks and buy them back between 180 to 185 for the next leg up.I sold all my holding but still confident that 300p to 325p is on the way but there is no reason to wait for that when there is profit take it and wait for the fall and so on and so on.Never stay on share for to long market does not go up on a straight line.The quicker you all know that the quicker you will start to make money as I am doing.There is no sentiment on a share and certainly do not feel in love for any share.

[oilretire] 06/3/2016 11:14

Ok, as I thought, Capex budgets required to be approved to get rigs on site & do the completion/fracking work. I guess the true indicator for that happening won't be POO alone, it'll be the rig count going back up.

My point being that it won't happen quickly - well not as quickly as to cap oil price in the $40's - an overshoot spike higher will happen faster IMHO.

[billy_buffin] 06/3/2016 10:58

Oilretire - plenty of drilled wells! Take just the North Dakota Bakken, tight oil play, currently over 1,000 wells drilled and NOC'd (not completed) ie completion work to do and frac. just 34 rigs active with 200 stacked. Come $40 + oil they can be back in action pretty damn quick! Other shale plays no doubt the same.

[puzzler2] 05/3/2016 18:15

I agree hearts. If you believe that the oil tide has turned, just buy a load at a cost that is effectively 10% of a previous high and sit tight. ...just too risky to try and trade the ups and downs.

[leonidas] 05/3/2016 18:06

I see a profit and take it and bought back short at 190 i am still holding but 250p monday no chance they will pull back for the next leg up.

[hearts1] 05/3/2016 17:56

Lol, why do they bother? Safest thing to do is trade a % and just hold the rest, that way you have opportunity either way.Of course after the last couple you would expect a pull back, but this share tends to do the opposite.

[puzzler2] 05/3/2016 17:37

LEONIDAS - you appear to change your mind with the direction of the wind - doesn't do anything for your credibility, I'm afraid.


LEONIDAS - 26 Feb 2016 - 09:21:23 - 25845 of 26044
Bought some more and my average from 179 is now 170 bought them outright and waiting for oil to go up to 60 dollar before selling,it may take a while but at 60 dollar the share price could well be above the 325 to 350,any view??

LEONIDAS - 03 Mar 2016 - 14:33:26 - 25942 of 26044
look like the party is over sold my holding at 193............will sit and wait good luck to all.

[leonidas] 05/3/2016 13:34

2.50 + DREAMER..................

[milliecusto] 05/3/2016 12:45

Well oil climb another 3% after London markets closed,so can see this hitting 2.50 plus on Monday.

[oilretire] 05/3/2016 12:44

POO will dictate what happens on Monday............. it closed last night knocking on the door of $39, and if that holds or continues to gain, a big drop is very unlikely.

[leonidas] 05/3/2016 12:07

regrettably I can see a big drop on Monday,this rise from 147.50 to 217 can no longer continue................

[cestnous] 05/3/2016 11:59

I really did like that article Leo

[gersemi] 05/3/2016 11:37

It is the value of the dollar that really determines oil and commodity prices at any given time. Superimpose the WTI (or Brent) chart upon the dollar index chart and you will be shocked at the pattern. When the oil price fell off a cliff mid-2014 look at the dollar. You will see the dollar index roar northwards waving hello as it flew passed the oil price falling southwards

The world is now more about asset classes that can be bought or sold in an instant rather than the core fundamentals of a commodity's supply and demand

We are all struggling against the time value of money

[oilretire] 05/3/2016 09:21

there are lots of wells already drilled in the US that will be brought back online if poo goes above 40 us


Is there really that many? I doubt it. Certainly not wells that are as quick to open as your kitchen tap. Maybe some that are awaiting down hole completions or topside work to bring online?

I would have thought cash flow is king at the moment - regardless if it's making a loss on the true 'break even price' IMHO, so anything that is currently flowable without further capex will be online trying to keep the wolves from the door.

And if the wolves do arrive and another operator or the banks get to 'steal' your asset they will keep the wells flowing - they might not have been profitable for you, but they will be for the new owner at a new lower 'break even' and the wells will continue to flow.....

So as I said, I doubt that there is that much spare capacity is available at the turn of a tap.

There will need to be a sustained stable period of $40+ for capex to be approved to move mothballed wells, projects, appraisals, explo etc forward.

[hearts1] 05/3/2016 09:20

Landsdowne are still well in profit as they opened theirs high.Odey are down but you can't take one position with any ii. For example they could be long oil, short TLW, as a hedge, so still be making money.I think the key thing is that it shows that short positions are irrelevant to short term price changes.Warning signs are when directors are selling, such as Genel where it usually means things are not so good.

[jovi1] 05/3/2016 08:57

Hearts
USA cost to shipping east to west coast is a lot more than to Europa as there is s stipulation that only tanker with all USA personnel cover cost to cost transport this make more expensive that transport in or out of USA from Europa especially in the carry gasoline on the way back

[leoneobull] 05/3/2016 08:51

Doesn't seem to show any shorts closing yet. Apparently one did close a fraction of 1.6m shares. This week's rise was poo-related only. Question is why didn't they start closing ? Suppose they may have long positions too? But those listed tend to be short specialists e.g. odey lansdowne

[hearts1] 05/3/2016 01:06

The US refineries are set up for medium / heavy crude as historically this is what they imported.US exports have limited market as the shipping costs make it unattractive unless there is more divergence from Brent.Apart from US the majority of additional oil inventories have been taken by increased SPR of China and India, circa 200m barrels.Iranian increases after ban have not been as large as they stated given most western banks won't give credit to their sales.

[jovi1] 05/3/2016 00:11

Day I would not be surprise seeing poo going back down but I am very confident on the long run and as I explained some time ago I am not in hurry to sell actually I already have the date in mind and is not before the end on 2020,
More importantly I don't believe that the oil in storage is all of good quality too.
Epa figure do not report the difference between crude and condensate of all different quality.
In shale there is a lot of poor condensate especially the sour stuff from Canada and with oil so low if must be a lot harder to shift.
I suspect this is the only reason why USA lift the ban on export and I suspect too that all export is condensate
Having done my calculation on the usual napkin I estimate that condensate account for more that 23% eventually this will come to play and will support price especially Brent
The people that will loose the most from all this are the refinery in USA especially from the west coast as gasoline imports will increase with tanker coming back from Europa
Good luck you all

[leoneobull] 04/3/2016 22:45

Nice to see the House of Saud suffer given their policy on locking up minors on death rowhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/11/saudi-arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-us-oil-industry-buckles/

[wodahsnoom] 04/3/2016 22:43

I agree - now where's that spliff