Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 12/1/2023 10:52

I’m hoping the drop here has just been overdone based on recession/spending gloom.

Sometimes all you can do is buy something that looks like a sound business when its been bashed and then just wait.

In theory, bashed income stocks give a great opportunity for capital growth, while pocketing the dividends.

I imagine there will be some repercussions from consumer spending drop but in August they were saying: “Supply of logistics space remains highly constrained; 1.2% vacancy rate resulting in rapid leasing of buildings and rental growth.”

If consumers are buying cheaper rather than not at all, that doesn’t affect the space needed to stock the goods. I suppose the effect depends on what proportion of the estate holds purely discretionary goods and whether some clients run into trouble, as happened with retail shops in shopping centres, which wrecked INTU and HMSO.

However that was a structurally declining market.

[williamcooper104] 11/1/2023 19:06

SGRO just today bought a retail park adjacent to their main holdings in Slough to do just that There's some scope; but it's not going to flood the market; particularly as many retail park units already are hybrid on-line/walk in retail

[yump] 11/1/2023 18:32

Nightmare thinking about trucks going in and out of a retail park !

Hopefully this is a reasonable medium term investment, with recession now priced in and with decent divi.

[yump] 11/1/2023 16:58

I've been hunting around for income stocks that also have a depressed share price which is not the result of structural decay. Got some recently just under 140p.

Hopefully this doesn't end up like INTU. At least BBOX have a following wind in general that increasing online sales require an increase in warehouses and distribution centres.

One threat (perhaps already mentioned here ?), might be that the retail parks and to some extent shopping centres (difficult physically) may morph into retail plus
distribution locations. I presume that is already happening. It would make sense if the footfall has dropped off.

[scruff1] 10/1/2023 20:11

Its certainly looked stronger recently. Bit miffed that I first bought in at 140 and now two n half years later im back to square one - though managed to make some profit trading a bit on the way down but Im not where I hoped to be. But there you go

[yump] 10/1/2023 18:46

Its not joined at the hip - there’s a weak elastic band connecting them.

The damage was done October and previously.

Isn’t the point that each time some gloom comes, the share price is not plummeting any more.

[scruff1] 10/1/2023 17:17

Not talking about their business connection. Its perception of fortunes. BBOX share price collapsed when Amazon first mentioned that it had overstretched itself during covid. Its done the same a couple of times since today being the latest, Kick Amazon and BBOX limps it seems

[igoe104] 10/1/2023 16:21

Amazon is less than 10% of bbox portfolio. Why is it so jointed at the hip ?

[scruff1] 10/1/2023 16:08

BBox does seem to be joined at the hip to Amazon

[killing_time] 10/1/2023 15:08

They also have another in Doncaster that is let to Unilever.

[alter ego] 10/1/2023 14:43

BBOX do have a warehouse in Doncaster but it's let to Next. They also have a development site in Doncaster at Symmetry Park with 1 unit let to Dogmates.

[killing_time] 10/1/2023 12:51

No, none are BBOX sites.

[18bt] 10/1/2023 12:48

The retail giant said it planned to close its fulfilment centres in Hemel Hempstead, Doncaster and Gourock in Scotland.

[bodgeman] 10/1/2023 12:29

Which 3 warehouses are being closed by amazon? Are they all/any bbox. Guess they will still have to pay rent on the remainder of lease or some other termination compensation. Not going to do the sector any favours.

[williamcooper104] 04/1/2023 16:51

From memory the implied yield (gross contracted rent/(debt plus market cap) is just over 5 That's about where recent private market sales have traded at - so while there's not really a huge discount to current (as opposed to historic) NAV; there's still a not unreasonable prospect that we see yields coming in 100bps (implying roughly 25 percent gross value accretion) And then there's the land bank; that probably is at an actual discount to market and is operationally leveraged to gross asset values - eg gross assets up 10 percent, land is up 30-40 percent

[williamcooper104] 04/1/2023 16:45

10 year gilt yields in about 12bps, biggest positive move since around mid-November So if we get a normalish recession plus rates falling then ought to be good for defensive commerical property asset classes Seems to be more of a general consensus that we are over peak inflation and that with negative real wage growth then absent another big global shock, the worry in a few years time could be deflation I think QEs going to be restrained in the future and yields won't get as low as where, but if the neutral gilt yield is c2.5-3 then high quality commerical prop yields ought to be 4 something

[rathlindri] 04/1/2023 14:59

Good to see a positive start to the new year

[yump] 04/1/2023 13:57

Market works ahead so probably looking to interest rates moderating, which improves relative return for any good income stocks

[scruff1] 03/1/2023 18:16

Mmm. Just a feeling only based on snippets when reading around but I think there is a bit of upward pressure on REITS at least those with quality properties. There is no doubt a lot of uncertainty still and recessionary pressures but (and I could be wrong) I reckon most are probably priced in - we have had more than our fair share of bad days. Whilst the pressure may be on the high street with shop closures on the rise the same as far as I can ascertain doesnt seem to be true of on line shopping and lots of people I speak to talk about how busy all the retail parks are. There also apparently has been little if any fall in demand for sheds and boxes. So hopefully we are over the worst. Would be interesting to hear the opinions of others

[18bt] 03/1/2023 15:22

REITS seem in demand today

[yump] 03/1/2023 12:29

I guess we’ll now see if this is a move off a potential bottom trendline.

[scruff1] 28/12/2022 17:25

Not so much a period more an era like the pleistocene otherwise known as the ice age. Obviously it's taken folk 1m yrs to wake up to global warming so theres hope for Bbox yet