Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 28/12/2022 10:50

Thanks for all the informative comments here.

Been shifting investments into income stocks over the last few months - luckily ? caught this during what looks like a bottoming period.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 20/12/2022 11:58

Scruff, I echo your comments about William, thought this for a long time.
Seasons greetings to both of you.

[williamcooper104] 18/12/2022 14:16

Spent too long looking at commercial property

[scruff1] 17/12/2022 08:52

William your breadth of knowledge I find impressive

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 22:56

These are getting funnier "If you are struggling to make profit in the forex trading market, is probably because you have been doing it in an absolute wrong way" No - if you are struggling to make money in the forex trading market it's because you aren't a prop trader at a bank front running your order book Dear oh dear

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 20:49

Or indeed both Management have been incompetent at best It's a strange one, first reit I think that I've ever seen being totally hammered where balance sheet hasn't been an issue But looks likely that the shares get suspended on 31 Dec

[scruff1] 16/12/2022 20:39

Yep. HOME is a strange one. Its not totally clear yet (as far as I can tell anyway) what has actually gone on there. I cant decide whether the shorters are over egging it or whether the management are just bent. Will know soon but its not one for me

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 20:23

Yep; SGRO down 4 percent and only other REIT down, ball park, as much today is the potential fraud HOME

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 20:19

It's not that irrational Yields for prime logistics have gone from 3.25 to 5 (if any end of that range is irrational it's 3.25) Need to rerun numbers but think the implied yield now is about 5.25 percent So looking cheap, but not a massive/irrational discount

[scruff1] 16/12/2022 20:15

speedy
There have been quite a few similar reports over the last few months all giving reasons why logistics are well placed - esprcially the ones like BBOX with high quality facilities. I can only think that as its one of the highest profiles with a fairly large interest behind it then its also best placed to get the most flak. Its been the same since Amazon pulled back after lockdowns. You just know that when theres news like todays its gonna be one that gets the biggest pummelling. It is also capable of shooting up more than the rest on the good(well better -days). I get the feeling that its a bit of a coiled spring and when the mood changes (whenever that will be) it will have its BIG day. Bit of a waiting/hoping game at the mo. BBOX are not doing much wrong

[speedsgh] 16/12/2022 16:46

UK Logistics Market Faces 'Significant Supply Constraints', Colliers Warns -

Supply-Demand Imbalance Also Drives Annual Rental Growth to Record 12.4% in Third Quarter

UK industrial & logistics property vacancy rates for units larger than 100,000 square feet reached a historic low of 3.1% between the second and third quarters of 2022, Colliers' analysis shows...

[continues behind a paywall]

[stewart64] 16/12/2022 16:45

Scruff..totally agree...some UK dinosaur stocks of the past have held up better than BBOX. And warehousing is very much the future. The Market really is irrational

[scruff1] 16/12/2022 13:47

Not sure why BBOX is getting singled out for a particularly harsh thrashing though

[stewart64] 16/12/2022 08:30

Sentiment rock bottom on UK plc just now. I agree though the warehouse sector is one of the few areas that will at the minimum flatline in a deep recession. Couldn't say the same for retail or office real estate. I'm certainly interested in this if we get further retracement off the 150s. It's probably a screaming buy now in the mid 140s but the general Market correction might pull it down further.

[igoe104] 12/12/2022 08:27

WHR have come out with a strong update, saying warehouse market experiencing high demand. So why is this falling ???

[scruff1] 18/11/2022 21:07

I see retail sales beat forecasts for Oct. They only fell 6.1% instead of the forecast 6.8% !!!. Maybe on the strength of it GS rerated BBOX to a buy - or was it IC??

[scruff1] 17/11/2022 20:02

Cheers jimbo - ususlly good for a few pence. Long time since I read it. Now prefer Money week which imo is a better all round read

[jimbobbaby] 17/11/2022 19:17

IC tip of the week in tomorrows edition.

[skinny] 13/11/2022 12:46

An interesting link posted by Jonwig on the SHED thread.

[williamcooper104] 12/11/2022 20:59

Drop enough of a bomb on the UK economy and of course you'll see demand fall away But then you'll likely also see inflation and yields crash too; stagflation can't exist for ever - something has to give

[williamcooper104] 12/11/2022 20:57

Industrial demand fell in the credit crunch by c30 percent If if fell by that much again it would take us back to 2019 demand levels Construction cost inflation is almost out of control at the moment - hard to get fixed price D&B contracts - but where there's tenant demand that inflation has to be met with increased rental levels

[williamcooper104] 12/11/2022 20:55

Especially as 5 cap implies likely un-lev total return of 8 something BBOX and SGRO both have sound balance sheets so it's a long time before higher rates might impact upon dividends; and by that time the rents will be considerably higher I like MLI but avoided as it's debt maturity is only c2.5 years From memory BBOX don't have any material amount of debt maturing before 2027

[williamcooper104] 12/11/2022 20:52

I bought back in at an implied property yield of 5.24 % That's a 5-10 percent discount to current market And includes the development land If the new normal gilts 5 something then there's maybe another 5 percent capital value fall If it's 3 something then there's c50 percent upside I've no crystal ball; so can't tell which one it's going to be - but seems aysemtric - can forget about much plus 5 as new normal as would induce mega austerity which would crash inflation

[rik shaw] 11/11/2022 13:29

Over what period ...?