Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 14/6/2022 14:14

Has anyone seen any forecasts for the full year dividend in the current FY? Q1 already declared at 1.675p so one can assume 3 x 1.675p for Q1-Q3 divs. Just a question of what Q4 is then likely to be? A repeat of 1.90p paid in Q4 last year would give 6.925p total. My guess is that barring disasters they will nudge up the Q4 div to 1.975p to give a full year div of 7.00p. Q1 (Jun 22) - 1.675p (PID 1.675p) ---------------------------------- TOTAL FY 2021 - 6.70p Q4 (Mar 22) - 1.90p (PID 1.7125p) Q3 (Nov 21) - 1.60p (PID 1.60p) Q2 (Aug 21) - 1.60p (PID 1.60p) Q1 (Jun 21) - 1.60p (PID 1.60p) ---------------------------------- TOTAL FY 2020 - 6.40p Q4 (Apr 21) - 1.7125p (PID 1.7125p) Q3 (Nov 20) - 1.5625p (PID 1.5625p) Q2 (Aug 20) - 1.5625p (PID 1.5625p) Q1 (May 20) - 1.5625p (PID 1.5625p)

[williamcooper104] 13/6/2022 23:20

Yes indeed; a very red day - oh well - thems is markets

[scruff1] 13/6/2022 21:27

And brutal it was Mr Cooper. In normal times this fall would be ridiculous but such times are getting hard to recall - Brexit, Covid, War, Stagflation, Recession, Jeez

[williamcooper104] 13/6/2022 07:20

Nice 1m sf prelet - 6-8 percent yield on cost Still likely to be a brutal day for almost all stocks today

[scruff1] 11/6/2022 12:45

Are Amazon cutting back? They said they had overegged the new warehouses but that was mainly in the States and I dont remember them saying they were actually going to cut back on existing - just new take ups. I noticed (but didnt read) an article in the DT the other day about drone delivery. Any views on what if any effect this may have on retailing? Also now at around 10% discount to NAV. At what point would being a SELL become ridiculous considering that as of present the business is strong and largely unaffected and of course taking into account the considerable headwinds

[roguetraderuk] 09/6/2022 14:48

amazon are cutting back amongst others. they overexpanded a bit too quickly but longer term there is still the need for these boxes particularly in europe and esp the more developing nations there. the end of globalisation also means last mile last few miles will continue to be in play.

[roguetraderuk] 09/6/2022 14:11

yes a lot of these are struggling with higher rates, since they are bond proxies, but many of the warehouse weighted ones are now suffering from a bit of oversupply as many ecommerce platers cut back. it might only be a 6-9 month thing, but its going to weigh on the share prices. i think segro is capable of getting into the 860-1000 zone and isnt that interesting until it does.

[nerja] 09/6/2022 14:08

Chart looking pretty bad next support is 180p area

[speedsgh] 08/6/2022 11:39

Interesting comment on the sector by Marcus Phayre-Mudge, the highly-rated fund manager of TR Property Investment Trust (TRY) in their recent results... Industrial and Logistics 2021 was yet another record year in terms of take up, capital value growth and, all importantly, further shrinkage in the amount of vacancy. The UK market saw take up exceed 50 million sq ft and vacancy is now below 3% across the whole range of 'big box' unit sizes. Like for like rental growth for Segro's portfolio was in excess of 5% and this has driven yields nationwide 75-100 bps leading to huge capital growth. Yet urban logistics has been even hotter, with investors focused on the supply inelasticity of infill markets. Greater London prime industrial transactional evidence now regularly sees equivalent yields (i.e. based off market rents which are higher than passing rents) of less than 3%. This price inflation has been fuelled by evidence of another year of rental growth exceeding 10%. Segro reported rental growth averaging 13.1% in its UK portfolio during 2021. Savills estimate that inner London rents have moved 25% in the last year alone. UK industrial transaction volumes reached £16.7bn in 2021, 113% growth on 2020 and 152% growth on the five year average. Given such an acceleration we must closely watch the fundamentals, there may well be capital seeking deployment without due consideration. However, for now, the demand/supply imbalance at the occupier level is driving rental growth. The entire UK industrial market recorded a drop in available space to 18.1million sq ft, a contraction of one third over the year. No wonder rents are rising. On the Continent, we have also seen market rental growth outstrip annual indexation. This is set to continue even with the printing of record high annualised inflation of 5.1%. Segro are the only fully pan-European listed player and they reported 4.1% like for like rental growth across Continental Europe for 2021. We remain confident that in many key markets this level of growth will be exceeded in 2022. Across Continental Europe, online sales penetration now averages 15-18%, still a long way behind the UK at c.28%. Shortening supply chains and reshoring has driven demand in cheaper markets such as Poland. Savills European Logistics Survey 2021 showed that 46% of all occupiers canvassed expected to increase their warehouse requirements over the next year. Availability continues to shrink, with vacancy down from 5.1% to 3.5%, with record low levels in Dublin (1.1%), the Netherlands (3.3%), Czech Republic (1.7%) and take up levels well ahead of decade averages with Madrid (+9), Poland (+13%) and the Netherlands (+10%). For the best space, rents are responding very rapidly and we expect average rental growth to exceed 5% across the Continent. However in early May this year (post the year end) Amazon announced a dramatic pause in its expansion programme. Whilst we believe that these comments were focused on their domestic US market, it has caused reverberations across all logistics/ecommerce real estate markets. Major owners and developers such as Segro and Tritax point to full orderbooks and strong transactional evidence, forward looking equity markets took fright. Share prices of these two names are down - 22% and 17% respectively, calendar year to date.

[scruff1] 08/6/2022 09:00

This is not looking good. Its defo out of favour more than most. Im feeling there could be quite some way down to go yet

[speedsgh] 27/5/2022 08:32

Posted yday by jonwig on the SGRO thread... The UK's booming warehouse market can withstand a pullback from Amazon, the boss of a leading logistics property developer has said, as ecommerce fuels demand for space. The ecommerce giant took a quarter of all UK warehouse space leased in 2020 and 2021, but said earlier this month that it had overextended during the pandemic. That announcement wiped about 10 per cent off the value of the largest shed developers in the US and UK. But Andrew Jones, chief executive of urban warehouse owner LondonMetric Property, said that demand was likely to continue to outstrip supply, thanks to a rush to onshore supply chains and the growth of smaller ecommerce businesses. More here: HTTPS://www.ft.com/content/3a3604ad-4551-429e-836f-9b29c0cc42a3

[igoe104] 24/5/2022 09:59

Good set of results for WHR, good for the whole sector

[pdt] 19/5/2022 11:53

I have bought a few here today. They must be trading on a discount to NAV of some 10% and yielding around 4% at this level. The Directors bought earlier in the month at 217p so I feel quite comfortable buying at 197p. Time will tell.

[tnt99] 12/5/2022 17:24

Not sure what's going on here was it dropped so the directors could buy more???? Or is there something else spooking this share?

[scruff1] 11/5/2022 19:42

Good post William - very encouraging - especially as I bought a few more Monday at 195.5. Hopefully managed to catch pretty much the bottom. The directors have bought a lot too which is usually a sign of confidence or a con when the co' is in trouble. Very much doubt the latter in this case.

[wskill] 11/5/2022 15:29

Like this paragraph though. But it is hard to imagine Amazon’s pause — with the company planning to grow into its excess capacity — is about to leave the UK swimming in top quality logistics space. Unlike 2019 offices, where Brexit had already dented enthusiasm that was about to be obliterated by Covid, the UK sheds market looks strong. Of a record first quarter this year, with 13.6mn sq ft taken up, only 3 per cent was occupied by Amazon. Vacant space is at a record low, or a rate of 2.8 per cent. Kevin Mofid at Savills reckons that even if Amazon were to vacate a tenth of its stock, which it won’t, that would only move the vacancy rate to about 3.6 per cent. That’s against an average of 5.8 per cent since 2015, and a rule of thumb that says 12 per cent is needed to tilt the market in occupiers’ favour.

[williamcooper104] 11/5/2022 15:16

Did Amazon WeCrash the warehouse market? https://on.ft.com/3L4Ars0

[speedsgh] 10/5/2022 10:27

Interesting, wc104. Reckon it's pretty safe to say that there won't be a repeat of that impressive rise this year!

[williamcooper104] 09/5/2022 23:05

Interesting little fact Logistic values in 2021 rose by 37 percent Which is actually the highest rise in any one year on record of any commercial property asset class - second being city offices doing 32 percent in 1988 (the nominal rents set then only recently being exceeded)

[roguetraderuk] 09/5/2022 10:48

3lp, one of the biggest ecommerce storage players in poland have just pulled their ipo. as just about everywhere, theres a reset in valuations. i think 2023 will be a better year for ecommerce in general as the comps are much easier, but in the meantime there might be a bit more to go on the downside in some of these warehouse names. and that would then make them good investments again.

[speedsgh] 09/5/2022 10:45

QuotedData article... QD view: Is logistics a house of cards? (6/5/22) - HTTPS://quoteddata.com/2022/05/qd-view-logistics-house-cards/ Amazon’s gloomy earnings call last week has taken the wind out of the sails of some of the biggest listed property companies focused on logistics. The profit warning and caution on online sales growth saw 12.7% and 12.6% wiped off SEGRO’s and Tritax Big Box REIT’s market cap in a week (Thursday 28 April to Thursday 5 May). The impact the profit warning has had on the sector reflects the dominance Amazon has on occupier demand. The online retail behemoth has accounted for a quarter of all warehouse lettings in the UK over the past two record-breaking years (25% in 2020 and 24% in 2021), not including leases signed by third party logistics operators running contracts on their behalf. Perhaps more chillingly for the sector, Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s chief financial officer, said that the company had overextended, and its aggressive expansion would slow. In the first quarter of this year, it accounted for just 3% of take-up in the UK, according to Savills. So is the logistics sector a house of cards that is about to fall? The cost-of-living crisis, which is likely to get worse this year, will have a big impact on consumer confidence and online retail spend. That may well curb take-up by e-commerce players. The first quarter take-up stats show that the sector isn’t just reliant on Amazon. It was a record first quarter for logistics lettings, reaching 12.1m sq ft, suggesting there is demand from several different industries. The continued high levels of take-up, without the Amazon factor, could be explained by another of the demand side pulls – supply chain resilience. The pandemic and recent events shone a light on the limitations of a ‘just-in-time’ supply chain model where stock would be at optimal levels thus requiring less warehouse space. It put too much emphasis on efficiency and not enough on resilience and was woefully exposed at the start of the pandemic when supply chains were cut off almost overnight. Companies are now in the process of reversing this model and adopting a ‘just-in-case’ approach, where more stock will be held to negate supply chain shocks and thus requiring more warehouse space. The war in Ukraine is only likely to exacerbate this trend, while China’s insistence on a zero-COVID policy, which recently caused mayhem at the port in Shanghai, will only further the near-shoring or re-shoring of manufacturing to Europe. Although we may not see record take-up again this year (it reached 55.1m sq ft last year beating the previous record set in 2020 of 51.6m sq ft), the dearth in supply should allay any fears of a decline in rental growth – for now. The vacancy rate in the sector – the amount of available space as percentage of the total amount of warehouse space – is at an all-time low of just 2.9%. The lack of available space has forced occupiers to build-to-suit development (where they pre-let a development project and work with the developer on the specification of the building). A healthy 67% of take-up in the first quarter was build-to-suit, versus just 37% last year, according to Savills. Developers have responded to the prevailing market conditions (of low levels of supply and high demand) and there is estimated to be 21.1m sq ft of speculative warehouse space under construction due for delivery in the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. Excessive speculative development, where there is no tenant signed up for the completed project, is a pretty good bellwether for a property market overheating. Although this level of development can be sustained in the current environment, a substantial hit on demand could see an oversupply of space next year and rental growth retreat. Rising construction costs may slow the pace of new development which wouldn’t be a bad thing.

[toffeeman] 06/5/2022 14:01

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=42925307 just type EBOX into the box next to EPIC

[divmad] 06/5/2022 12:36

What's the link to EBox, anyone?