Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[sigmund freud] 17/1/2025 11:05

Agree the price is driven by other fixed income sources. That's what I meant by bond-like proxies.
It will behave less like a gilt as the ltv value comes down (if management want to bring it down). A high LTV essentially leverages gilt-related share price movements?
At least it is a growing business that someone might want. Wish I could say same about Gilts.
UK market is cheap to an overseas investor and my guess is the Trump 2 inauguration =peak US. and a lot of funds will be looking for a boring new home and this and UK reits will fit the bill.
Whether interest rates go up or not, bbox is now at a valuation level that likely will make a better total return than cash in the bank. I'll leave Gilts to the pro's

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2025 09:59

Where are their H2 planned disposals..

[affemoose] 16/1/2025 09:58

decent summary Sigmund, i'm in a similar position to you.

One thing that you forgot and is vitally important is Gilt yields - this is the key driver for us in price movements. Why invest here when you can get similar returns & far less risk with Government paper.

So yeah -reduction in Interest Rates & reduction in Yields on Gilts will start the upward march on this share price

It's not designed to be an exciting stock -but trapping the Divi yields on offer atm in a stock that I consider to be well run and secure is attractive - so i'm not going anywhere. I'm overweight so wont buy more but am happy to 'bottom draw' this. It hurts sometimes, I am impatient, but the maths is good.

[sigmund freud] 15/1/2025 13:17

i am a PI so small fry
am at a small capital loss but overall gain, so not great but not bad
reviewing the history, this sector took 2 hits, one from interest rate rises and one from amazon saying it had over-rented this type of property. however amazon's issue was primarily in us where there is land everywhere. i have certainly not seen any empty boxes near me.
i suspect most large shareholders were pension funds holding these as bond-like proxies, who sold off quickly as interest rates went up. and they haven't re-entered the market.
right now even if interest rates don't come down, they look cheap at 133p today.
LTV is about 30% and most debt has a 5 year maturity, so hopefully no shocks coming. 95% of debt is at fixed or capped rates.
inflation-linked upwards-only rental reviews
very diverse occupier demand. amazon is largest at 12.3%
average logistics-type unexpired lease is 10 years
the independent valuer estimate of market rent is 22% higher than the current rental level, so room to grow that. this can often have a significant positive effect on the value of the properties, so likely asset appreciation.
not much new supply (not seeing much new building in my region)
clients are responsible for maintenance etc
considerable sector consolidation going on
online retailing is a growing market and bbox is one of the shovels even if it isn't a "pick" right now.
could the exploration of expanding into data centres and the power that these consume be the spark for a re-rating? it is all pie in the sky atm but their infrastructure knowledge and land bank and position of this would fit bbox nicely?
yield today is 5.4%, trading at 29% discount. this is a buy for me along with some similar reits. and if interest rates surprise to the upside causing further share price falls, happy to increase exposure.

[yump] 15/1/2025 11:28

Check posters other posts and then filter so they go blank. Especially the “wake up” types. Same phrase as the conspiracy lot use.

[skinny] 15/1/2025 11:20

FWIW :- Bank of America cuts Tritax Big Box price target to 180 (210) pence - 'buy'

[scruff1] 06/1/2025 21:40

Isn't that the Labour govt?

[joe say] 06/1/2025 07:31

Simple answer - vote Reform

[grahamburn] 05/1/2025 14:53

True Mousse. But we vote for them

[affemoose] 04/1/2025 17:09

Sadly we have a binary of incompetence at play - Baily & Reeves. Neither of which has a lot in the way of brain power and less understranding of how complex economies work.

Not that Liz Truss was any better - in fact she was an order of magnitude worse but I do despair at the quality of people that run our country of late.

[skinny] 10/12/2024 10:17

FWIW :- JPMorgan cuts Tritax Big Box price target to 190 (200) pence - 'overweight'

[affemoose] 06/12/2024 15:22

Something needs to lift the share price up though - while I am here for earnings I do need to remain in the black on capital.

Today's yield is 5.3% i believe. I can buy treasury 4.75% yield gilts and be sure i get the cash back. Currently they looks like a better bargain.

Some good news would be welcome. Or.... interest rate drops but I am not sure this will happen much. I correctly predicted only 2 drops in 2025 (wish i'd been wrong) - now the Governments of the day look like they will increase the monney supply even more - which if course impacts inflation upwards. So I shall go out on a limb and say only 2 reductions in BofE interest rates in 2025 also. both 0.25%, first maybe in May/June once winter is over and gas prices etc start to drop.

I have zero faith in Trump doing anything positive for anyone except himself i'm afraid. So tin hats on!!!!!

Gonna be a long wait!

[rogen83] 04/12/2024 15:05

A quiet board is a good sign

[essentialinvestor] 21/11/2024 09:25

Further sector consolidation is odds on.

SHED likely to merge with LMP or BBOX, LMP more likely with their lower discount to NAV.

GRI looks reasonable, IF you consider occupancy will hold up around current levels and gilt yields begin to trend lower in 2025.

[yump] 21/11/2024 09:20

Decent yield at this price cf gilts. Could be a long wait for permanent capital growth though.

[essentialinvestor] 21/11/2024 09:15

Gilt yields are what to watch re the sector, particularly atm.

[scruff1] 21/11/2024 09:08

Thats a possibility pans and normally I am pretty sure there would be a lot of investors taking the bait - me included but the outlook is indeed so bleak and its not hard to imagine the bottom being quite some way off yet. Will the next inflation figures show an improvement? Will there be another rate cut this year or indeed next? Indeed its crossed my mind that come April the London stock market could be in real trouble. Quite a lot of stocks are passing their 52 week lows already. I think we can forget a Christmas lift.

[panshanger1] 21/11/2024 08:40

Everything is so bleak @scruff1 could it possibly be a contrarian buying opportunity ?

[scruff1] 21/11/2024 08:34

For a well run company with a well received set of results that included increased profits and dividend this fall is well overdone (I hope). It is understandable though. I for one would have added and am still tempted but with this economically illiterate government, inflation rising on the back of increased energy prices and with Miliband in charge of energy policy and with the consequences of Reeves ridiculous budget having months yet before it properly detonates and with interest rates even possibly rising then investing in any company on the LSE let alone a REIT is too much of a risk for me. The real worry is that I cannot see where the cavalry can possibly come from. If the Ukraine war ends, the conflict in the ME ends and China's economy bursts into life we are still stuck with this completely incompetent government for another four and a half years. I cant remember a more bleak outlook

[8w] 18/11/2024 15:24

Could do with some good news here. An update on UKCM properties should be positive.

[affemoose] 08/11/2024 09:04

I hear the comments above re: UK debt, taxation, Yields etc.

BBOX share price - In a slowly dropping interest rate environment it's just hit a 12 month low. Gilt yields have gone up and as so many point out this is always inverse to BBOX Share Price. Uncomfortable, and we only have the NAV to pin our hope to for short-medium term drivers of share price

I am trying hard to simply take the long term view of this - while it's 'cheap', and Divi's are rolling, compound the Divi's into more Stock and wait for the good days to return.

I did but with a long term horizon - just that long term is longer term than i anticipated!

I've copied some analyst ratings below for context. All pre-budget of course.

"A number of equities research analysts have issued reports on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reissued an "overweight" rating on shares of Tritax Big Box REIT in a report on Friday, July 12th. Berenberg Bank reissued a "buy" rating and issued a GBX 182 ($2.37) target price on shares of Tritax Big Box REIT in a research note on Wednesday, August 28th. Finally, Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a "buy" rating and issued a GBX 210 ($2.73) price objective on shares of Tritax Big Box REIT in a report on Friday, July 12th. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has a consensus rating of "Buy" and a consensus target price of GBX 191.75 ($2.50)."

[scruff1] 06/11/2024 21:26

as well as inertia :-)

[essentialinvestor] 06/11/2024 20:29

Well you could be riddled with worse things scruff TBF!.