Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[belgraviaboy] 10/11/2022 15:27

Very quiet on here considering it is upm 8.2% on the day as I type...

[skinny] 01/11/2022 10:50

For some reason, that was in my 'today's' RNS link !

[speedsgh] 27/10/2022 15:31

Logistics Occupational Market Remains Resilient Despite Rebalance in Take-up Levels -

Take-up of UK logistics space totalled 7.67m sq ft for Q3 2022, according to the latest research from global real estate advisor, CBRE. The aggregate for the first nine months of 2022 stands at 30.25m sq ft, which equates to 95.8% of 2021 and 92.1% of the record-breaking year of 2020 for the same period, signalling the sectors resilience.

This represents a decrease of 30% compared with Q3 2021, which saw take-up reach 10.9m sq ft. A total of 29 deals have completed this quarter, a decrease of 25.6% compared with Q3 2021, which saw 39 deals complete. Speculative schemes accounted for almost half of total take-up at 46.9%, followed by build-to-suit at 34.7% and secondhand accounting for the remaining 18.4%.

Third-party logistics dominated at a sector level, accounting for 56.3% of total take-up for the quarter. This was followed by retail at 21.3%. The remaining 22.4% was split across supermarkets, manufacturing, motor and other, demonstrating that demand for logistics space is wide-ranging and that competition for units remains strong.

Take-up was widespread across the regions for the quarter. Yorkshire & North East led the way at 27.1%. This was followed by West Midlands at 20.7%, East Midlands at 19%, South East at 16.3%, North West at 9.3% and the South West at 7.5%.

Vacant available space increased from 5.73m sq ft at Q2 2022 to 6.51m at Q3 2022. This was due to a number of speculative buildings reaching practical completion during the quarter. However, with only 21 built speculative units available, there remains a significant under supply. The increase in completed units resulted in the UK vacancy rate increasing fractionally from 1.18% to 1.32%.

"Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, the logistics occupational market remains strong with a wide range of occupiers securing space across the country. The decrease in take-up this quarter points to a degree of normalisation in the market following a prolonged period of record-breaking numbers, however the under-offer pipeline signals towards another robust year for the sector."
Jonathan Compton, Senior Director, UK Industrial & Logistics Intelligence, CBRE

"We have seen a significant shift in the type of occupier taking space following a dominant display from online retail. Third-party logistics providers are now leading the pack, accounting for more than a third of total take-up year-to-date. Ongoing supply chain and shipping disruptions are resulting in longer lead times, driving retailers to extend their stock profile in the UK. Therefore, companies that do not have the sufficient infrastructure are turning to third-party logistics providers for fulfillment on their behalf."
Annabel Nash, Senior Analyst, UK Industrial & Logistics Research, CBRE

[porsche1945] 22/10/2022 17:27

You will be able to get the same return on cash in the bank in a few months that Tritax pays in 20pc taxed dividends pa, so what’s the point of having stock specific risk. Contracts Tritax have don’t mean shxt if their customers start going bankrupt and the U.K. is heading for a 2008 style wipeout, but worse. Rising rates into a recession, brexit having knocked off 20pc of our exports to Europe, trashed sterling and double figure inflation? Terminal problems now caught up with U.K. and the politics just rearranging deck chairs on titanic. These will be back under a quid.

[speedsgh] 20/10/2022 14:46

Any dividends declared as ordinary dividends (i.e. non-PIDs) are listed on the website without the 20% withholding tax being deducted (as the withholding tax obviously only applies to dividends declared as PIDs). E.g. 1.71p paid 1/4/21, 1.71p paid 27/3/20, etc.

[skinny] 20/10/2022 14:36

speedsgh - I hadn't noticed that!

[skinny] 20/10/2022 14:34

I've emailed them just to be sure.

[speedsgh] 20/10/2022 14:32

Presumably 1.34p is the amount after deduction of 20% withholding tax on PIDs. Not sure why they are quoting it that way, all historical divs are also quoted similarly if you look at the Dividend tab on that webpage.

[rik shaw] 20/10/2022 12:45

Yes strange, but the RNS also notes it is set as 25% of 6.7p, so hopefully it's the website that's wrong.

[skinny] 20/10/2022 11:56

That's interesting - the RNS states 1.675p, but the website says 1.34p.

[rik shaw] 20/10/2022 08:42

Ex-Div this morning for 1.675 pence per share

[nickrl] 11/10/2022 10:55

So given they have some locked in contractual rent increases coming down the pipe plus new developments lettings it ought to make 7p here for FY so a forecast 5.5% yield on today share price They are reasonably well protected on borrowings for many years with only the RCF being used for development projects due late 2024 on the horizon so no interest rate threats to impair earnings. Estate is pretty high quality so no EPC issues to contend with to comply with the 2023 criteria so divi should be sustainable at these levels for a few years with small annual increase unless we have an economic collapse. However, its inevitable that NAV will get reduced but has the share price discounted that? Until we know where rates trajectory is headed im wanting 6% as minimum and covered by cash earnings.

[scruff1] 11/10/2022 09:24

An increase on last year then

[sleepy] 05/10/2022 15:35

Who’s going to pay the rent?

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2022 13:32

Wouldn't worry about that - that's Aberdeen/Tritex (the fund/asset manager) not bbox

[bodgeman] 05/10/2022 13:04

Hope bbox dont continue with the 1.7bn venture to build the british volt factory. It's such a shame that british volt seems to be managed by the chuckle brothers while many other countries are building or have built their battery capabilities. UK last again.

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2022 12:48

Stifel analyst, Alan Carter: "it's a finger-in-the-air guess as to whether yields rise by anywhere between 50bps and 300bps, the former of which would be containable, the latter catastrophic. Neither I nor anyone else has a clue on that outcome."BBOX is pricing in (last I looked; and don't assume my quick on the fly maths are right) about half of that at c180bps movement Long real rates; while very volatile are around 200bps out Points to BBOX not being cheap but being around anyone's best estimate of fair value

[horndean eagle] 04/10/2022 21:46

There is rental growth within the portfolio to factor in and they were also valued off a higher yield. They have developments coming on stream in coming years which should generate 6-8% yields. Vacancy rates exceptionally low in the space and higher rates will put off new developments. Prime west end london property is still selling at sub 4% yields (GPE disposal today).

[williamcooper104] 04/10/2022 12:51

At lead 100bps It's going to be volatile with the 14th October Perhaps a market to average into