Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 16:22

That's the maturity of eboxs loans but it's rate sensitivity is greater than that given that EUR 150m of caps expire in 6 months Not knocking EBOX

[skyship] 24/4/2023 16:12

hindsight - EBOX has a 35%LTV; however fixed at 1.46% for 4.5yrs. So what is the concern there?

For the debt position see 14:30mins in this Presentation:

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 15:05

A good shed is a 5 capThe implied yield on bbox is about 5.2 The development land bank has a yield on cost of 6-8 So it can double the size of the company by buying at a discount of c15-40 percent below market So there's no question there's considerable value in the land bank

[hindsight] 24/4/2023 14:35

Options are a subject I know something about and if the landowner had good advice these could be worthless (bar some time value) but thats maybe short, again depends on the option clauses. Albeit limited 3% GAV

But thats not the point im really trying to make. Its the assertion that BBOX is worth more (less yield) than EBOX as it has a land bank with future development value. If this is now at market or below I see no edge for BBOX over EBOX

If someone wishes to argue BBOX is worth more (lower yield) than EBOX because the LTV is much lower so less risky, then thats a very fair argument in my book and one that concerns me with EBOX

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 14:09

Will look back but I suspect what's been happening is that as assets are developed and thus reducing the value of land held for development that some uplifts have slipped in to keep the value at the original cost value, nothing sinister here so long as that value isn't less than the open market value of the land - which it won't be Just highlights how the NAV doesn't tell you the full story, but the incomplete story does mean there's very little room for land values to create an accounting loss

[dhoult12] 24/4/2023 13:29

Held at cost subject to impairment review is categorically not mark to market.

If the value materially falls from original purchase price then you get the same value. Anything above purchase price will not be recognised as held at cost.

Only m2m is on those with planning consent. Would be surprised if auditors allowed unless it had been given post year end.

But then auditors always surprise with their "professionalism"

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 13:06

Held at cost subject to impairment review and some upwards adjustment for receiving planning Still 3 percent of GAV - so very limited balance sheet risk

[hindsight] 24/4/2023 11:45

Reads to me they do mark to market

However clearly they have not priced in the cliff edge where they pay out all the exspenses and find the min price + thier costs on the option is well above open market value

Naturally this does depend on the quality of the advice the landowner(s) recieved


Embedded value within land options

Under IFRS, land options are recognised at cost and subject to impairment review. As at 31 December 2022, the Group's investment in land options totalled GBP157.4 million (31 December 2021: GBP201.5 million) with GBP57.1 million being transferred to investment property during the year as certain options were exercised.

As the land under option approaches the point of receiving planning consent, any associated risk should reduce and the fair value should increase. When calculating its EPRA NTA, the Group therefore makes a fair value mark-to-market adjustment for land options. At the period end, the fair value of land options was GBP20.4 million greater (31 December 2021: GBP66.0 million greater) than costs expended to date. This movement in the fair value of the land options in the year is due to the adverse market conditions; although this impact is significantly lower than would be experienced had we owned this land outright.

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 10:53

They've not been mark to marketing the land options So while land values have indeed fallen recently before that they'd gone up massively The land option cost value is stated on bboxs balance sheet at £150m or c3 percent of GAV The actual value of those options is a lot higher than £150m - it's less than it would have been 12 months ago but a lot more still than would have been a few years ago

[hindsight] 24/4/2023 10:23

Your missing the point on the development value. Your argument works for newly built values (why I like quality property long term) but not the former

BBOX either own the land so thats 50% gone or on options cant build at min price so land owner does not have to sell and pockets the option fee


Industrial land values shrank by 47.4 per cent in the six months to December 2022, due to inflation and increased borrowing costs, says Colliers Industrial & Logistics analysts.

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 09:58

6 gives a standard 20 percent PoC return 8 gives a super return of about 60 percent profit margin

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 09:57

6-8 development yield works

[hindsight] 24/4/2023 09:43

The options will have a minimum price, it could be they cant build at those mins so options basically worthless at present

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2023 09:09

Rising rents mitigates build cost inflation - hence can still get the same 6-8 development yield Most of bboxs land is held at option cost; which was part of the reason why bbox previously traded at big premiums to NAV

[hindsight] 24/4/2023 08:57

WC104, Landbanks with permission will be taking the biggest % fall though at present

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2023 20:57

One share price to another share price doesn't mean anything Ebox is on a c6 implied yield Bbox is on a c5 something implied yield But one has little development upside The other has the largest logistics landbank in the UK

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2023 20:50

Would you pay the same for one shed on 1000 acres of land as one shed on 5 acres of land

[skyship] 22/4/2023 20:48

"Bbox can more than double its size with the largest logistics land bank in the UK at 6-8 yield on cost".....sorry, but that is really for the birds WC. But I know you like to come out with that rather meaningless stuff. So, whatever.

Personally I think one's a plum snd one's a prune.

Sp's today 149p v. 64.3p

Let's see where we are end Q2, Q3 & Q4. Don't fancy yours.... but not saying you may not be right.

We'll see...

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2023 17:27

Apples and oranges comparison Bbox can more than double its size with the largest logistics land bank in the UK at 6-8 yield on cost Plus it's actually got a covered dividend and no material debt to refinance until 2026 (from memory) So it's both safer and has more upside

[skyship] 22/4/2023 16:54

Up over 200p BBOX was way over-valued; now less so at 149p, however the bald stats of:

# EPRA NAV discount of 17.4% - too low

# Yield of just 4.7% - way, way too low

...suggests to me they are likely to continue churning in the 130p-150p for some time to come...

Compare this with Tritax Eurobox on a 47% NAV discount & a 6.9% yield. Clearly EBOX offer far, far better value.

[speedsgh] 21/4/2023 14:25

Tritax Symmetry signs Syncreon up to final spec unit at Symmetry Park Bicester -

National logistics property developer Tritax Symmetry has completed the first phase of Symmetry Park, Bicester. syncreon, A DP World Company has now leased the last remaining speculatively built facility at the Park totalling 271,227 sq ft.

The company, which provides logistics and supply chain solutions, has taken Unit C on a 15-year lease to further improve its distribution network after securing a contract with a major music distributor . The company, which is part of DP World, will join existing businesses at the Park including DPD (60,000 sq ft); Ocado (164,000 sq ft), Bentley Designs (88,000 sq ft) and Medline Services (110,000 sq ft).

Unit C is the latest building at Symmetry Park Bicester to be built to net zero carbon in construction, in line with Tritax’s commitment to building all new developments to net zero carbon, as regulated by the UK Green Building Council (UKGBC). syncreon’s state-of-the-art logistics building, which was built by A&H Construction and completed in December 2022 incorporates significant PV solar power generation as well as EV car charging points.

Speaking about the scheme, Tom Leeming, Development Director at Tritax Symmetry, commented: “Since we first broke ground here at Symmetry Park Bicester in 2017, we have closely worked with Cherwell District Council to attract more businesses, provide growth opportunities to existing businesses in the town and attract considerable capital investment of over £100m to the area. Today, the Park is home to a host of premier businesses. In addition, we have a further 16-acres to develop as part of phase three.”

Tom Parker, EMEA Real Estate Director at syncreon, continued: “We are pleased to secure Unit C at Symmetry Park, Bicester, which is another exciting acquisition to syncreon’s expanding UK Real Estate Portfolio. Bicester is the perfect location from which to operate our customer’s national distribution from, relocating from an existing operation in Aylesbury. The net zero carbon construction, and on-site renewable energy generation, is an important aspect in DP World’s own sustainability agenda and the state-of-the-art facility reflects positively on our business and brand. We look forward to continuing our relationship with Tritax over the duration of the lease.”

Extending to a total of 69 acres, Symmetry Park, Bicester has the capacity to deliver up to 963,000 sq ft of logistics floor space.

Savills and DTRE are joint letting agents for Symmetry Park, Bicester.

[speedsgh] 31/3/2023 17:41

Big Box Occupational Market Coming to Boil After Slower Start to 2023 -

DTRE Reports Fall in Deals Over 300,000 Square Feet but Stronger Q2 Predicted Thanks to 8 Million Square Foot Pipeline

Big box logistics lettings over 300,000 square feet fell by 50% in the first quarter of 2023, holding back overall volume deals, but a stronger second quarter is coming with several million square feet of deals in the pipeline...

[continues behind paywall]

[igoe104] 13/3/2023 16:15

Just added to my holding here, I was very impressed with the presentation, these look very cheap..

[yump] 10/3/2023 09:30

Double hit xd and fed. Who thought income stocks would ever be this volatile. Portfolio valuation as well.

Looks like it won’t escape the bottom area quite yet, although drop seems overdone given comments about current year.