Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[digger18] 03/5/2022 19:13

From the March update: What has fundamentally changed in the last month?
Not a lot I would suggest!

Strong start to FY 2022 with 1.8 million sq ft of near-term development starts in Q1 2022, adding a potential £13.1 million of contracted rent, of which 56% has been pre-let.

· FY 2022 guidance increased to 3-4 million sq ft of starts and £350-400 million of capex into development, compared to long-term target run rate of 2-3 million sq ft per annum; maintaining 6-8% target yield on cost.

· Record levels of occupier demand across our portfolio with active negotiations on more than 10 million sq ft Over 11 sites.

[phillis] 03/5/2022 15:56

European economies in decline!

[nerja] 03/5/2022 15:01

The way this is dropping 210p is possible this week

[my retirement fund] 03/5/2022 14:55

Whats happened here in this particular sector reminds me of the fad for building or refurbing then re-naming a lot of the boring old industrial park developments back in the 90's and 00's science and technology parks so they could attribute stupid valuations to the property which in turn allowed them to borrow and develop using imaginary loan/NAV ratios and then issue equity at absurd valuations.

[scruff1] 03/5/2022 13:53

A poor trading statement would pan lid today !

[roguetraderuk] 03/5/2022 12:07

us10 yielding 3% makes the argument for these kinds of reits a difficult one. add in amazon struggling for some time now and the argument for an even short term top in ecommerce looks compelling. last month salesforce had said it saw flat ecommerce sales in q1 with europe down 3%. the ceo of inpost has said he believes it may bottom q2/q3 at down 13%. this comes at a time when building of these ecommerce warehouses is flat out. i would also add one of the biggest ecommerce warehouse providers in poland, 3LP SA is floating this month. sellers of businesses rarely get their timing wrong. so this is a sector to stay away from, if the warehouses are concentrated in ecommerce. there is still an argument for data centres but anything focused on ecommerce is surely going to be under pressure over the next few months.

[riverman77] 03/5/2022 12:04

Well done, it was a massive bargain at that price.

[scubadiverr] 03/5/2022 12:01

Tripled. I topped up at 82

[riverman77] 03/5/2022 11:59

Agree, I'm a strictly long only investor, but if I were to ever short this would be an obvious candidate. share price roughly doubled since the Covid lows and looking pretty frothy.

[my retirement fund] 03/5/2022 11:24

Excellent shorting opportunity here

[scruff1] 03/5/2022 11:08

nerja
NAV 217 Current share price about 3.8% premium to nav

[riverman77] 03/5/2022 10:43

SUPR is a different case - yields have not compressed nearly so much on supermarkets which makes them a much more attractive asset class in my view. SUPR currently yields 4.7%.

[nerja] 03/5/2022 10:37

Php come off a lot from its high though, safestore also off a lot from its high

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2022 10:29

Notable that PHP/SUPR, other high quality, long leased REITs haven't sold as much today (SUPR up as repricing from latest equity raise) (though all REITs got whacked in the US yesterday), suggesting it's a little more sector specific to logistics than general rate fears

[purplepelmets] 03/5/2022 10:26

ty Riverman

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2022 10:26

Some of this sell of comes from Amazon's latest results were they made comments about needing to grow into some of their new space - that some seem to be taking as a potential slow down in demand - Amazon still the big demand whale in the market It's more to do with that, general rate fears, than the IC article (which wasn't bad for the IC) Even if Amazon slow a little the supply/demand imbalance in the U.K. is favourable; given that it's so difficult to build anything here - it won't last forever and at some point there will be an over supply; but IMO we are a while away from that The rental growth on existing assets is caped at 3 percent, but uncapped for undeveloped land

[riverman77] 03/5/2022 10:22

I think the point is that dividend may not grow as much as is being priced in (a 3% yield is low and effectively pricing in lots of dividend growth). So no suggestion of a dividend cut, rather a slowing in growth which could lead to a de-rating of the share price.

[purplepelmets] 03/5/2022 10:09

Well if the article says profits are due to fall and a cut to the divi, well fair enough we are probably overheated. But I can't see that happening, and I can't see any fall in demand long term, so I remain a firm holder. I did take some profits a few months ago but no intention to sell any more regardless of short term share price movements.

[nerja] 03/5/2022 10:04

What’s the nav at now for this TIA

[riverman77] 03/5/2022 10:02

It was actually quite a good article for the IC and made some fair points. On the subject of dividends, it mentioned yields are now very low (and indeed the dividend on BBOX is also now low at under 3% so I wouldn't get too excited about that) - normally low yields can only be justified by strong rental growth in the future, but they make a good case for why this may not happen (lots of new industrial developments, slowing in the pace of online growth, etc).

[petewy] 03/5/2022 09:45

It was in the IC. Warehouse stocks bubble about to burst. Poor article. No mention of dividends

[scruff1] 03/5/2022 09:41

It was . It was speculative but it's done the job. Getting close to nav now so a bit late for me to sell. Will sit it out and hope the sellers get burnt when an update arrives. Imo

[killing_time] 03/5/2022 09:35

There was an article over the weekend that said the Warehouse sector was running hot and the Warehouse REITS were over priced. I only saw the head lines and cant remember who wrote the article, might be one of the news papers or IC.

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2022 09:32

PLD is basically a super SGRO - with a $110bn market cap

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2022 09:30

US REITs almost all battered yesterday PLD of near 5 percent Seems to be rate driven fears