Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 05/8/2022 21:35

Sorry - non farm payrolls - eg number of new jobs created in America Was red hot

[williamcooper104] 05/8/2022 21:32

A guess - US rate expectations/fed pivot hopes were blown up by todays non farm patrols that came in at over 2x expected levels So if US rates go higher then our gilt yields will rise too - US rates could get close to 5 percent Low yielding logistics are very sensitive to yield movements

[scruff1] 05/8/2022 20:34

Big drop all of a sudden this pm. Not aware of any issue today. Any ideas?

[williamcooper104] 05/8/2022 17:17

Yep - yields have moved out 10 percent in last few months BBOX has development gains coming through that mitigates that But inflation to date hasn't reduced land values as was rescued by yields contracting and rental growth The conning inflation over next couple of years will be more challenging However from memory a lot of BBOXs land is held at cost, so development still ought to be NAV accretive, just not as accretive as was before - but that was when it traded at premiums to NAV So it's looking like a cautious hold for me

[grahamburn] 05/8/2022 14:38

From Times Business Brief

Panmure Gordon reiterated its “buy” recommendation on Tritax Big Box as the analysts argue the shares, at 194p, are trading on a 20 per cent discount to the reported net asset value and offer a 3.6 per cent dividend yield, and therefore “look like good value”.

[income investor] 04/8/2022 16:02

Personally I think the outlook is a bit more mixed than some of these comments suggest. The company has a big development program and they admitted in the presentation that there had been a summer lull in investment activity as investors considered the interest rate rises, which may cause problems if they want to fund the development by selling some assets. And with shares trading at a discount to NAV, an equity raise would be difficult as well. They could fund by more borrowing, but at today's higher rates! NAV valuations also look a bit rich to me. Values can fall as well as rise and with interest rate rises you would expect investors to demand higher yields when buying property!

[igoe104] 04/8/2022 15:46

If anyone missed todays presentation, it now up on the companies website.

Can only see these starting to rise now, especially as they are at a fairly large discount to the NAV..

[igoe104] 04/8/2022 10:26

Very good presentation this morning. The company seems in very good order..

[skinny] 04/8/2022 08:37

I don't know where the rest of my post disappeared to :-




Strategic delivery supporting continued growth

-- 5.6% operating profit growth from strategic delivery of development completions, asset management and LFL rental growth.

-- Adjusted EPS of 3.73p (H1 2021: 4.03p) reflecting reduced development management (DMA) income partially offset by development completions and rental growth.

o Excluding additional DMA income in prior period, Adjusted EPS increased 1.1% to 3.73p(3) , with development completions and rental growth offsetting 8.7% increase in average share count following 2021 equity raise.

-- 10.5% growth in contracted annual rent primarily through development letting activity supporting future accretive earnings growth.

-- 4.7% dividend growth to 3.35p, representing 90% pay-out ratio when adjusting for additional DMA income(3) .

-- Total Accounting Return of 10.7% (H1 2021: 12.5%) driven by continued execution of strategy.

-- EPRA cost ratio of 15.2% expected to return to previous levels as Current Development Pipeline becomes income generating.

-- Strong balance sheet with low LTV, no near-term refinancing requirements and 100% of drawn debt benefiting from either fixed or capped interest rates with an average cost of debt of 2.52%.

Market supported by positive and enduring structural drivers resulting in record occupier demand

-- Record market take-up of 22.6 million sq ft in H1 2022, up 9.5% on H1 2021, as occupiers continue to enhance their supply chains.

-- Supply of logistics space remains highly constrained; 1.2% vacancy rate resulting in rapid leasing of buildings and rental growth.

-- H1 2022 investment volumes remained healthy at GBP4.2 billion (H1 2021: GBP5.2 billion) supported by structural drivers in logistics real estate.

Record development lettings with GBP17.8 million of contracted annual rent secured

-- During H1 2022 we made significant development progress, delivering:
o 2.4 million sq ft of development lettings, increasing contracted annual rent by GBP17.8 million or 9.1%.

o 2.2 million sq ft of construction starts, formed of:

-- 1.6 million sq ft of developments pre-let or let during construction, adding GBP11.1 million to contracted annual rent;

-- 0.6 million sq ft of developments on a speculative basis, with the potential when let to add GBP6.1 million to contracted annual rent, 45% of which is under offer.

o Planning consent secured for a further 0.6 million sq ft of development, across two sites.

-- Current Development Pipeline of buildings under construction (includes 2021 starts) totals 3.4 million sq ft of which 1.8 million sq ft (53%) has been pre-let or let during construction; a further 15% is under offer.

-- On-track to deliver increased target of 3-4 million sq ft of development starts with strong ESG credentials in FY 2022:

o Maintaining 6-8% yield on cost target range;

o New buildings delivered to high ESG standards with EPC ratings of A and minimum BREEAM "Very Good";

o Expected positive earnings impact from mid-2023, in line with completions, with full effects felt in FY 2024.

Exceptional quality and efficiency of portfolio underpins value and income security

-- Portfolio value up 10.0% to GBP6.03 billion (31 December 2021: GBP5.48 billion), reflecting development gains, active asset management activity and strong underlying market conditions, including a LFL valuation surplus of 7.0% (net of capex).

-- The portfolio's high-quality, long-term and resilient income is reflected in:
o WAULT of 12.8 years as at 30 June 2022 (31 December 2021: 13.0 years);

o 0% vacancy (H1 2021: 0%). 100% rent collected;

o Highly efficient portfolio with minimal cost leakage and low capital expenditure requirements;

o Focused on modern, sustainable high-quality buildings critical to the supply chains of well capitalised blue-chip customers.

Creating value through active management of portfolio and customer engagement

-- GBP2.7 million added to passing rent from rent reviews and lease renewal, achieving an 8.4% increase across 16.3% of the portfolio.

-- Like-for-like ERV growth of 5.8% in the period, with 14.7% portfolio rental reversion at the period end. EPRA like-for-like rental growth of 3.3% over the period.

-- One lease extension and one lease renewal completed, adding 15 years and 10 years respectively to create significant value.

-- Enhancing ESG performance through supporting our customers fulfil their Net Zero Carbon ambitions.

Aubrey Adams, Chairman of Tritax Big Box REIT plc, commented:

"We have delivered another strong first half, with good operational and financial performance and excellent progress within our accelerated development programme, which continues to gather momentum. Long-term structural drivers, and existing favourable market dynamics, are generating strong occupier interest in both our standing investment portfolio and in the new space we are creating through our development activity. By successfully implementing our strategy we have secured record lettings on 2.4 million sq ft of new space so far this year, adding GBP17.8 million to our contracted annual rent roll and supporting future earnings growth in 2023 and 2024."

"We continue to see strong occupier demand for space although inflation and geopolitical issues have made the economic environment more uncertain. We benefit from a combination of high-quality investment assets which provide the business with a strong base of secure, long-term income, and attractive rental growth potential driven by a favourable structural supply/demand imbalance in our market. Our dynamic and profitable development programme is a capital efficient growth engine for our business that is delivering now and for the long-term. The Group has a strong balance sheet and high levels of liquidity, giving us the resources to implement our strategy and respond quickly to changing market conditions. Consequently, we are well positioned to continue delivering attractive and resilient performance over the longer term."

[rik shaw] 04/8/2022 07:29

Solid results. Increase in NAV/NTA mean the shares are now on 20% discount. LTV 23.7% Positive overview of the market:

'Market supported by positive and enduring structural drivers resulting in record occupier demand

-- Record market take-up of 22.6 million sq ft in H1 2022, up 9.5% on H1 2021, as occupiers continue to enhance their supply chains.

-- Supply of logistics space remains highly constrained; 1.2% vacancy rate resulting in rapid leasing of buildings and rental growth.'

[igoe104] 03/8/2022 16:32

Guarantee nothing but good results tomorrow. This is only down on USA reit sentiment. Amazon are increasing their workforce in the UK and expanding unlike in the USA its reducing. So the fall isn't warranted...

[tnt99] 03/8/2022 16:15

Hope not I expect back to 2.50

[my retirement fund] 26/7/2022 12:52

Next stop, 150p

[scruff1] 21/7/2022 07:00

Results on 4th Aug. I cant see them doing anything other than giving the share price a fillip - no matter how short lived. The drop in the share price has nothing to do with the balance sheet to date and Im not convinced the current economic situation will impinge too much on its medium term prospects

[mcdougall1] 13/7/2022 08:18

11th July 2022



Iron Mountain Announces Home for New UK Campus at Symmetry Park Rugby
Tritax Symmetry has exchanged an agreement for lease with Iron Mountain on 963,892 sq ft state of the art logistics space at Symmetry Park Rugby. The facilities will form Iron Mountain’s first UK campus to offer its wide range of services.

Winvic Construction has been appointed as main contractor to deliver the first two units, totalling 320,682 sq ft, which will be built to net zero carbon in construction. Work has already started and completion is due in Q2 2023. The construction of units three and four, comprising a total of 643,210 sq ft will follow in late 2023.

The announcement comes after the logistics developer secured outline planning permission from Rugby Borough Council (RBC) for up to 2million sq ft of employment space on the 111-acre site, which is located on the M45/A56 strategic highway link.

Speaking about the letting, Joseph Skinner, associate development director at Tritax Symmetry, commented: “This is one of the largest lettings completed in the UK this year and we are pleased to have been able to successfully accommodate Iron Mountain’s requirement for its new campus strategically positioned in the heart of the golden triangle. This is the first time we have worked with Iron Mountain and we look forward to delivering a state in the art facility to support their expansion.”

[rathlindri] 07/7/2022 10:58

Time to climb?

[speedsgh] 14/6/2022 13:14

Has anyone seen any forecasts for the full year dividend in the current FY? Q1 already declared at 1.675p so one can assume 3 x 1.675p for Q1-Q3 divs. Just a question of what Q4 is then likely to be? A repeat of 1.90p paid in Q4 last year would give 6.925p total. My guess is that barring disasters they will nudge up the Q4 div to 1.975p to give a full year div of 7.00p.

Q1 (Jun 22) - 1.675p (PID 1.675p)
----------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2021 - 6.70p
Q4 (Mar 22) - 1.90p (PID 1.7125p)
Q3 (Nov 21) - 1.60p (PID 1.60p)
Q2 (Aug 21) - 1.60p (PID 1.60p)
Q1 (Jun 21) - 1.60p (PID 1.60p)
----------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2020 - 6.40p
Q4 (Apr 21) - 1.7125p (PID 1.7125p)
Q3 (Nov 20) - 1.5625p (PID 1.5625p)
Q2 (Aug 20) - 1.5625p (PID 1.5625p)
Q1 (May 20) - 1.5625p (PID 1.5625p)

[williamcooper104] 13/6/2022 22:20

Yes indeed; a very red day - oh well - thems is markets

[scruff1] 13/6/2022 20:27

And brutal it was Mr Cooper. In normal times this fall would be ridiculous but such times are getting hard to recall - Brexit, Covid, War, Stagflation, Recession, Jeez

[williamcooper104] 13/6/2022 06:20

Nice 1m sf prelet - 6-8 percent yield on cost Still likely to be a brutal day for almost all stocks today

[scruff1] 11/6/2022 11:45

Are Amazon cutting back? They said they had overegged the new warehouses but that was mainly in the States and I dont remember them saying they were actually going to cut back on existing - just new take ups.

I noticed (but didnt read) an article in the DT the other day about drone delivery. Any views on what if any effect this may have on retailing?

Also now at around 10% discount to NAV. At what point would being a SELL become ridiculous considering that as of present the business is strong and largely unaffected and of course taking into account the considerable headwinds

[roguetraderuk] 09/6/2022 13:48

amazon are cutting back amongst others. they overexpanded a bit too quickly but longer term there is still the need for these boxes particularly in europe and esp the more developing nations there. the end of globalisation also means last mile last few miles will continue to be in play.

[roguetraderuk] 09/6/2022 13:11

yes a lot of these are struggling with higher rates, since they are bond proxies, but many of the warehouse weighted ones are now suffering from a bit of oversupply as many ecommerce platers cut back. it might only be a 6-9 month thing, but its going to weigh on the share prices. i think segro is capable of getting into the 860-1000 zone and isnt that interesting until it does.