Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 20/10/2019 17:32

Wwich.
They’ve answered all your questions fpr me. 8 wells was only ever a target. Why waste capex rushing drilling when you are evaluating Scada and Haw and producing 50% more than initial expectation from new wells!
All in latest RNS.

[spellbrook] 20/10/2019 17:20

-- The third infill well in the H2 drilling campaign commenced production on 9 October
-- The fourth infill well which spudded on 30 September was completed on 8 October and will be perforated and brought on production in the next few days

-- The rig will move on to the fifth well location shortly, following routine maintenance work, and the Company now expects to complete this, and a sixth, well during Q4 2019

[pavey ark] 20/10/2019 17:20

All this and much more is in the presentation with slides by Jeremy Bridglalsingh.
I think every investor and potential investor should look at the presentation, take notes, replay parts (more than once)and when in doubt do it all again(I did)
The last 8-10 minutes are especially informative and very encouraging to investors.

Capex of $10m /year on wells and still able to add to the cash pile.

Cash flow positive this year even with 6 new wells.

Profitable from the low $40 pb even with SPT.

To put it very mildly they do seem to know what they are doing.

As far as the SPT is concerned I doubt if it will remain in its current form if the government really does expect TRIN to drill at TGAL
JB quite clearly said that they would not be coming back to the market for funding of the project ($120m - $160m)so either they are going to sell it on or bring in external partners and I doubt if either would be possible without tax reform.

[wwick] 20/10/2019 16:27

Noc, please help, where did you get 6 wells from? I was working off the "up to 8 wells" statements and accounting for capex for 8 wells. If a 3400 bopd year exit rate is based on 6 wells this is material in my calculations.

[nocents] 19/10/2019 19:56

Lest we forget or have forgotten....
6 wells 2019.
Only well 1 was fully included in Q3 results and well 2 end August ( only one month)
Well 3 produced from 9th Oct. Well 4 from this week. Wells 5+6 completed by end Q4. Wells 1-3 50% above pre-drill prognosis. Not including full HAW impact.
3,400 by year end is nearly 600 bopd higher than Q3.
I have no patience :-/
But Q1-4 2020 will be a step change and 3400 is a big early leap for Trinkind.
10p??

[nocents] 19/10/2019 19:01

T-shirts ( Doh)

[spellbrook] 19/10/2019 16:06

How much will the bopd be with haw and scanda

[spellbrook] 19/10/2019 16:05

Will all future drills be HAW

[nocents] 19/10/2019 15:08

Cpap
WTF?
What has Kavango Resources in Africa got to do with Trinity Oil and Exploration in Trinidad?

[spellbrook] 19/10/2019 12:42

How many more haw drills

[cpap man] 19/10/2019 11:36

KAV

By all accounts Mikes Moles is now at the drill site on the northern part of the KSZ with Hillary Gumbo and the whole local KAV team. A live from drill site interview with Mike Moles is planned for early next week. Very exciting times!

[pavey ark] 19/10/2019 11:05

Hi Mark, have replied.

[mark10101] 19/10/2019 09:08

Hi PA, check your ADVFN private messages, I sent something the other night.

[nocents] 18/10/2019 21:48

PA. You’re getting there! Tgal however would only be put up for sale if companies like BHP or Shell were interested. Herotage can’t buy its remainder..or the govt. won’t.
Trin have been setting it up a treat for a farm-in or merger so a sale would be a surprise to me but a nice one! Tgal has always been their end-game but SPT kills the spirit.
Re. the ccash pile...Bruce has been through the mill with Cotibank’s freezing of assets and tgreatening liquidation 2016. Trinidad’s version of Article 11 saved Trinity and allowed refinancing. Vultures circled. Bruce would NEVER let Trin become cash-poor. It’s why he wanted rid of debt via Placing.
Was allegedly “ worst year of his life”.
I think I’ve had worse.
But they did a sterling job.
Hence their over-cautious approach now methinks.
4 presentations to come. 10p a share. They need to get institutions involved not just 5% quickie p/i’s.Institutions in AIM for small caps is HARD! He needs a cunning plan Baldeick.
It’sa long hard road up .
But no better time to buy. Time to buy ashare is deeply undervalued to NAV and especially no debtvand strong balance sheet. That’s now is it not?
Forget seller(s). There will always be sellers.

[pavey ark] 18/10/2019 19:39

Someone mentioned the recent presentation with slides (30 minutes).
Started watching it at the time but just skimmed it but went back and had a much closer look.
The presentation is excellent but especially the last 7-8 min when all the detail of Capex ,drilling costs, oil price and profitability are all laid out....these guys certainly appear to know what they are doing or trying to do.

I don't know where I'm getting it from but I got the slightest feeling that the east coast asset was getting set up for a sale (a big sale at that) but I may be reading it all wrong.
A very exciting and valuable development though.

Back to the recent debate here about drilling / cash depletion.
The presentation is saying that they can drill year on year and still add free cash flow.
They will not run down the cash pile and intend to increase it and drill a number of wells each year.

They will need a pile of cash if they want to be part of the east coast development which could cost $120m-$160m

[otemple3] 18/10/2019 14:55

Seems to be plenty of buying interest soaking up our large persistent seller today!

[nocents] 18/10/2019 13:48

Wwick you are right I feel.
GO ..your pps and ppps (2 and 3) are very important. Acknowledged as such!!

[spellbrook] 18/10/2019 13:47

Do we now I& last two drills will be HAW ?

[nocents] 18/10/2019 13:43

GO
“I’m only human. Born to make mistakes.” Like the passwords online say.” I am not a robot” . I feel.
I have oscillated. And got things wrong Perhaps in the same day. I’d like to think not any more but who knows? And I would never have considered you were looking for a cheap entry point (?!) You should know me better. I would never rate your morality thus. I know u better.
Many people resented MT’s posts. I did not. You give much financial credibility to all your posts.
I have always been anti T and T govt and have probably spoken some silly things at times .( But they need roasting more than me ?)It’s only a chat board . And should always just be treated as such.
Nose fully rubbed.
Sometimes when u get things wrong you don’t know until that rear-view mirror arrives.

[wwick] 18/10/2019 12:51

Noc - to clarify my desire for economics, look back at Slide 8 - 25 Sep 17. It includes NPV, IRR and Payback. Boy would I like to see a similar slide/s for SCADA and HAW. Beyond the point I make here, this slide demonstrates how TRIN go about business, they know the value of what they do before doing it.

[nocents] 18/10/2019 12:18

Well put PA. Although I certainly am not a “ missed opportunity or fantasy share buyer “ by any means and I know many who are not.
Sometimes survival and just getting by...even cash preservation are far more important.
The rest of your post regarding drilling and capex I couldn’t agree with more.
“ Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown” but Bruce knows his oil.
If the share price were doing better then his pay would probably not even be mentioned.
Re. Tgal. 2p. No speculation there...but at least 2urs off. Heritage involvement probably. That will bring Trin back above 50p regardless of funding source( which will not be a Placing nor Rights Issue).
If I were not so worn down I would call this an interesting time.

[spellbrook] 18/10/2019 11:33

Another tick up coming

[pavey ark] 18/10/2019 11:32

Missed opportunity usually means looking at a share that has shot up in price and remembering that you once half looked at it but now you imagine yourself having sold X,Y and Z shares a buying lots and lots of this wonder share at next to no cost.

Missed opportunity or fantasy share picking?...we all do it.

The one piece of hard and detailed information that has been given out by TRIN management (repeatedly)is that the business is totally focussed on improving revenue and cash flow ....first and foremost.

There is , in my opinion, very little chance of actions being taken that would jeopardise the cash position or stability of the company.

Some of the company wells are 70 years old and still producing.
These new wells should payback a large part of Capex in two years.
The Capex money hasn't "gone" when the well is drilled and the drop in cash was clearly explained as Capex spent before the benefit of increased production.
Even with six wells drilled this year the company is expected to be cash flow positive.

Not all boiler plate boring stuff though and their (pending?) offshore drilling could be very interesting....expensive but not entirely speculative