Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 26/10/2019 21:32

Have people looked at the recent presentation or any presentation/information given out by the company ?
They are saying ,with figures and detail, that they are cash flow generative down to the low $40 and $50.5 and $55 and.........

Another point is that T&T would appear to be stable, friendly and a good place to live and work.
Perhaps some here would prefer armed guards at each installation and our tax liability limited to the odd bung to the local big wig.

The tax regime must change if TGAL is to go ahead and that will be pointed out but until then a rather strange and almost arbitrary tax like this makes it very easy to hedge.
Options are cheap and easy to construct if you are coming at them with a different set of criteria from the rest of the oil business.

[spellbrook] 26/10/2019 21:29

Cfo and ceo buying some shares
How many 2020 haw drills
More 2020 investor roadshows
Takeover of txp / cerp
Sale of west coast
Joint venture
Share buy backs
Dividend declaration
Many More 2020 drills
Guyana bids
Sale of Galeota

[nocents] 26/10/2019 21:15

I would very much like a little more ( reality-based) optimism on the chat board.
We pretty much all know the facts as tgey stand ( I think).
How are we to encourage new investors and keep our own spirits up? If we don’t like where we are or holding on then we should sell up. I hope I am not guilty myself.
I think it is important to know what the budget did but to recognize where wea are and move on.
Wallowing in their inept budget will get us nowhere. It will undermine sentiment and fresh investors.
I have been told this myself.
Oil and Gas Conference Mon and Tues. Let us not destroy oir own sentiment nor that of new investors. It is our way forward.

[mark10101] 26/10/2019 17:34

Yes, the government need changing, this video below has probably had a bigger effect on TRINs share price than oil.

Their short sighted vindictive 2019 budget was a snub to the industry, not a support, until we get a new government it looks like more of the same.

[spellbrook] 26/10/2019 15:10

Why not buy a rival ?

[oilinvestoral] 26/10/2019 14:26

Very good point Nocents but being lean won't be helpful if we are still cash flow negative due to oil price at 55 and SBT. Question is what will happen if oil price stays here for next year? Will they stop drilling or continue to use up cash funds ? An interesting point I noticed in the presentation is they may potentially raise some debt! Anyone have thoughts on that ?

[spellbrook] 26/10/2019 13:34

Need current government to lose election

[pavey ark] 26/10/2019 11:18

The current SPT regime can't stay in place IF TGAL drilling is to go ahead.
MERC have said that it will cost $120m-$160m and they will not come to the market for the money so either they raise the cash and/or bring in a partner(s).
The chance of the above happening with the current SPT set up is not great.

Decision time for the government of T&T.

Decision time for BD regarding the company's attitude and commitment to T&T

For what its worth I support local taxation and the money going back to the people but I expect a more imaginative and balanced method of achieving that.
This is one of the few occasions where it should be possible to come up with a solution that pleases everyone.

[nocents] 25/10/2019 23:16

Oilinv. 100% the truth. In fact they make more money at $49 averaged per quarter than right up to $64. It was worked out by our No. 1 number cruncher.
It is daylight theft by the govt.
But if you watch BD’s recent intrview they have accepted it as a given and make as much FCF as poss under all situations. Hedging was quite astute.
This is as lean a company as you will get in such a criminal tax regime.
Sorry for hi-jacking your post to Mark.

[oilinvestoral] 25/10/2019 23:01

Mark Fair enough about this quarter but I'm speaking in general terms. We make more money at $49/bbl than if the oil price is $60/bbl! That's a shockingly bad tax system!

[nocents] 25/10/2019 18:38

Or there’s a 50k on NEX at 9.6p.
Ultimately not my business.

[nocents] 25/10/2019 18:32

Avese
You managed to buy at 9.51??
Lowest price since Feb 2017.
I’d love to average down right now. Fundless:-(

[nocents] 25/10/2019 18:27

Avsome. I think I agree with your take as a new investor.
You can never call a bottom but this is the lowest since refinancing. I hold a lot but would also buy more right now as I said because the fundamentals of supply and the realities of demand ( China and India) can only be ognored so long.
I also see this as prime takeover...but not at a giveaway price!! Once Tgal is set up maybe.

[mark10101] 25/10/2019 18:24

Oilinvestor, it is an average over 3 months, we hit $62 less than a month with the SA attack. If oil went below $50 or even $40 it would not stay there long.

TRIN did not say what price we got for q3 but I imagine it was around $56-7 with earlier in the year us averaging $60, so it could be a lot worse! Certainly if we do a dip lower bringing the average down. I personally hope the current strength in oil continues as the chances of us averaging $49.9 compared to $50.01, when the government has control on the realised price we get, is slim.

[nocents] 25/10/2019 18:22

oil market ( sorry)

[avsome1968] 25/10/2019 18:13

HI ALL

Spent a fair few hours going through Trin affairs, looks a terrific company with very good management team, took a 50k holding this morning showed as a sell seems dead cheap to me, remind me of AMER were I've a decent holding waiting for news of the company sale seems to be going on for ever
can see this being a target if price keeps dripping down, will add further shares when funs come available.

[oilinvestoral] 25/10/2019 17:54

Mark if it drops and stays at 49 LONG TERM we will NOT pay any SBT at all. As it stands we are in the worst possible position with WTI trading low to mid 50s!

[nocents] 25/10/2019 17:53

Oili. I agree with your speculation but investors are still investing where they see quick moneyMatd. Bloe.sqz. Lenigas etc. It’ casino money now.Not fundamentals. Look at crazy moves in Bloe tgis week. Like Metronank. Quick dollar!one of reasons Trin struggles. Money goes elsewhere. Can bute your bum if not careful though.

[mark10101] 25/10/2019 17:48

Oilinvestor we don’t want oil to drop, now we are in the quarterly SPT trap a visit to the $40’sor even the $30’s would probably lead to a QRT realised price of $50.01.... we need oil to rocket and start reflecting the fundamentals! Apparently the last years weakness is due to a slowdown in global economy/China, YOY China’s oil imports is up 11% this year. The oil market seems to be factoring in things that have not happened and won’t happen, maybe a sign of the bottom of the bear.

[oilinvestoral] 25/10/2019 17:31

One thing that worries me about the presentation is that we are cash flow negative at 50.01 oil price!!!! Didn't calculate SPT being that bad! We need oil price to drop further or go above 55/ bbl! I'll read in detail tonight! At 9.5p this is a very unloved little puppy! I don't think it's market maker manipulation I think people have moved away from O&G investments

[oilinvestoral] 25/10/2019 17:28

They are too small to make it worthwhile. Pointless having a full LSE listing if you are valued at 30-40 million MC! If they can get to a few hundred million MC might be worth the extra cost!

[oilinvestoral] 25/10/2019 17:26

30000 is mentioned in slide 13 when they say : "Ultimate aspiration is to be a 30,000 bopd company (NOT 3,000 bopd)"