Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 31/8/2024 14:40

I feel that Txp holds greater risk than Trin. It all pivots on the Cascadura results, and the depletion rate of these wells is very high-2 extra next year or not. Txp do not draw attention to this in their RNS’s. Trin are wanted by LOL at a steal price, and needed by Txp due to cost savings( AIM registration, salaries etc) plus cash plus cash generation.
It seems to be a waiting game on Cascadura results, which may initially be good, or may not and may show declines anyway.
TXP have greater dynamic prospects but in AIM who the heck ever knows??

[pavey ark] 31/8/2024 11:06

As a TRIN shareholder there is limited downside (famous last words).

This is an absolute steal for LO and the TXP share price has to go up 50% to trouble their bid.
That being said I would welcome any success from the TXP wells as LO will then up their bid to 75P......and still have a very, very good deal !!

If TXP really produce the goods I'm happy to go with them.

Having said all that I obviously consider the current TRIN share price to be rather silly......but what's new !!

[aqc888] 31/8/2024 10:07

When was the last successful result from drilling of txp or Trin? Do people really think the odds are on their side with the next txp result…? With the share price plummeting recently I’d suggest not. Two very troubled companies in my opinion.

[mrzippo] 30/8/2024 08:48

Byles gonna get burned when LO goes through & Casc 'uncertain'

[nocents] 28/8/2024 10:25

This is peanuts to them.
Instead of legal action, they have pressured the sale of Trinity to LOL.
I can see this just languishingly drifting into next year, when Txp fade away.
Trin can wait as they are getting paid. The large shareholders can afford to wait of course.

[nafafa] 27/8/2024 22:12

I find it very strange that large shareholders have not taken any action. Whatever the outcome, many of them will not recover their investment.

[nocents] 27/8/2024 07:27

Great idea but it won’t happen under present management as you say. Ever! They speak of fiduciary duties and waste shareholder value with a passion.
They are not interested in dividends( JB holds a few but they were gifted not bought) as they hardly hold shares and get a chunky salary no matter what they do.
The shame about all this is that it gives them 6 months more salary. And pays legal fees. Sooner sorted better, but Txp are digging heels in so it looks like January.

[nafafa] 26/8/2024 22:04

AQC, there is nothing to stop Trin operating in such a way. 1. Play to their strength, solely focusing on the core on shore base production and invest solely to maintain that production.2. Get rid of all staff and management not employed to deliver the core on shore production, 1 above3. Sell off all other unexploited assets and return proceeds to shareholders as a special dividend.Under such a scenario, the cost of capital and indeed this share price become irrelevant. At current WTI, conservatively an annual dividend of $15 a barrel should be achievable, that translates to 30p a share. Over 5 years that's £1.50 a share in dividends. plus any special dividend from asset sales.Of course incumbent management will not have considered this because it does not suit their agenda. However, I do not doubt that the LO can see the opportunity to make considerable profit in this way.

[aqc888] 23/8/2024 17:21

Nocents, act isn’t going anywhere till he sees Trinity burning. He then might stay a little longer to throw a bit of petrol on the fire

[aqc888] 23/8/2024 17:14

I’m not convinced about nafas plan… it would work if it were a privately owned company. However the cost of capital and share price declines would mean it wouldn’t work. If however you have a profitable private oil business in Trinidad and wanted to run Trinity’s assets down ‘on the side’ I would envisage it would be remarkably profitable… profitable enough to increase their offer if required!

[nocents] 23/8/2024 17:04

ACT. Shame on your departure. You were right about the Trinity management all along. I have never agreed with your attacks on Ab, but your departure does leave a vacuum in the voice of reason, and a bi-chatline which will doubtlessly be biased.

[aqc888] 23/8/2024 16:56

So… let’s have a vote on what industry will cause/ has caused the most human suffering;
1)Armaments
2)Slavery
3)Tabacco
4)Oil (future not past)

Of course my main reason for investing in Trinity was that it produces purely dry duster ‘carbon neutral’ wells…

[pavey ark] 23/8/2024 16:34

All reasonable points .....albeit from a glass half full perspective.....but I did consider them all myself.

I think the main difference is that I consider the LO offer to be a real offer and one that without any TXP confusion would see the share price over 60p today.

Yes the share price would fall if both deals fail but not the real value of TRIN and in such a scenario the current board and management would be replaced.

If both deals fail then the shareholders would almost certainly opt for the "Nafafa" plan.

I think a less cautious investor would see the odds of a deal at 68p or better being pretty high but whatever way you look at it 54p is a silly figure at least in my opinion.

"you pays your money you takes your chance"

[aqc888] 23/8/2024 15:48

So many unknowns… and then inevitably a whole new unknown you’d not even considered before bangs you over the head when you’re least expecting it!

I wouldn’t buy any more… looking into the crystal ball of the current share price’s I’d say the tea leaves are saying… drilling isn’t going to end well for txp and there’s a lot of uncertainty about whether the lo offer will proceed. What are the chances neither deal materialise? I noticed Trin haven’t wasted any money on any hedging or failed wells lately… so a huge advisor fee with no results could well fit the bill!

[sleepy] 23/8/2024 13:18

Not that small a company

From the LO offer announcement:

Lease Operators is currently the largest independent onshore oil producer in Trinidad and Tobago, ahead of Trinity and Touchstone. In June 2024, Lease Operators produced 2,152 bopd from its producing assets.

The Well Services Group has previously operated in Venezuela, Guyana, Barbados and St. Lucia and currently operates in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname. The Well Services Group owns its own tugs, crew boats, liftboats and barges and employs approximately 1,100 personnel.

[nafafa] 23/8/2024 13:11

Investors are clearly not very convinced by TXP, their share price has now languished around 30p for some considerable time. Surely this is not due to the uncertainty over the Trin acquisition, but more likely fundamental concerns about whether TXP will ever show a decent return to investors.Interesting that a small private company believes it has the ability to extract a good return from the Trin assets, whereas Trin management previously claimed that only by teaming up with TXP would resultant scale and synergies provide the means for extracting value from the assets. What a load of rubbish!!Trin management's failure and incompetence will leave me with a 50% loss, utterly sickening. Delay leaves management to continue to take inflated salaries for sitting on their hands - I wonder whether we will ever hear what happened to the idle well study, likely nothing.

[sleepy] 23/8/2024 12:59

It would be simpler and easier if there was just one TRIN thread

[sleepy] 23/8/2024 12:34

It would be simpler and easier if there was just one TRIN thread.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 23/8/2024 10:58

I am happier outside the tent. The most important thing is that long suffering TRIN holders get a decent exit. Most of them are no doubt sick of TRIN, Trinidad and probably AIM too. So TXP will not solve their problem unless it spikes on decent initial flow rates and gives them a market exit around the level of the LO cash offer (but they would need to be quick).

[kaos3] 23/8/2024 10:44

pavey ark is finally getting it....
some take a very long time to comprehed
being very agressive on the way
which is understandable - because they have to dissolve and rebuild their universe
happens many times with "clever"

i am completely with pavey ark ... he gets you finally act. i wonder if he fill un bann you. would be a gentlemans act

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 23/8/2024 10:44

nocents - bearing in mind the fiduciary duties of the BoD, where exactly is the unethical behaviour? Do you not think the Takeover Panel would be all over unethical behaviour?