Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 09/9/2024 08:42

"If TXP keeps rising and gets above 50p".....and the first word is !!?

Couple of questions here.

Do you actually think that TXP would "walk away" and have you made any effort to assess the likelihood of this happening ?
(they have a way to go to get to their 41p price at the time of the initial bid)

If TXP rises to 50P and therefore the theoretical price of TRIN goes to 75p you seem to be suggesting 68p CASH is "inferior and riskier".

You have gushed constantly on the seemingly inevitable good time ahead for TXP and for the long suffering shareholders sake I hope things do work out but I question your "hope over experience" agenda.

My position here is clearly fixed in my mind.....I am heartily fed up with TRIN and its mis-management and I aim to sell.

My break-even price is now 76p but have lost money before and will again so I'm not wedded to that price but anything over (or close) and I'm off.

In different circumstances with different shares I may look at 54p against 76p and just suck it up and take the loss but in spite of the best efforts of management I see little downside but potential upside so I'll hold.

[che7win] 09/9/2024 08:11

TRIN at the bottom now, will have to rise if TXP rises anymore from here.Hitting the goldilocks price range regarding TXP.If TXP keeps rising and gets above 50p, danger that they walk away from TRIN and you're left with an inferior and riskier takeover in LOL. Interesting times, those who switched to TXP have made additional profits above the TXP acquisition terms.

[nocents] 05/9/2024 10:27

To trust TXP is as bad as to trust Trin.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 04/9/2024 21:37

Thought not.

[aqc888] 04/9/2024 20:48

Whether you like one particular board or the other is irrelevant to the drill results. It’s somewhat of an emotional decision based on a dubious moral compass. This is the oil industry - if moral good is the cause it would be best to exit completely from the oil business.

[pavey ark] 04/9/2024 15:48

What you can't seem to understand is risk.

If the txp wells fail to produce then the TXP share price will get nowhere near 45p and the 68p cash bid will win .

If it turn out that the flow is good and decline reasonable , as you seem to expect, then the TXP deal may turn out to be a very good deal for TRIN shareholders.

Andrew is unhappy with the way the TRIN board have behaved relative to the TXP bid and I suspect this is at least a partial driver in his decision to sell....he will be fully aware of the risks involved.

[che7win] 04/9/2024 14:39

I think our view is aligned Andrew.Hopefully we are both rewarded soon, surprised others didn't do same trade. The market has been kind for us, that's what I can't understand...

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 04/9/2024 14:12

Good to see Mr Thumb Downer on the ball. Looking forward to him posting his counter argument.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 04/9/2024 14:06

I see that Ab76 is back, so that is my break over. To anyone inclined to follow his example, ask yourself if you honestly think he has looked closely and critically enough at TXP to justify what he has now done. He certainly failed to look closely and critically enough at TRIN over the years.

He says that he has lost all confidence in TRIN “following the irrevocable undertakings debacle”. This suggests that he was not paying attention before that.

Fair play to him though for now having some cash in hand, but do your own risk analysis of his previous TRIN position against his current TXP position. His current position looks significantly higher risk to me (and just not worth the risk, IMO).

[awise355] 04/9/2024 13:29

Thanks for your transparency - can I ask if you've completed your Txp buying?

[pavey ark] 04/9/2024 13:08

Andrew, I wish you the very best....we have communicated privately many times and I always felt we "sang from the same sheet"

I certainly have no faith/confidence in the TRIN board for many of the same reasons but also have considerable doubt about TXP.

On a personal level I no longer feel comfortable being invested in TRIN (or indeed TXP) and will sell as soon as the 68p is final or when the TXP price overtakes it.

Again, best of luck to you.

[thebd11] 03/9/2024 19:43

End of January 2025 is long stop date...

[aqc888] 02/9/2024 13:06

I’ve lost track of when all the important dates for this lo or txp offer are… when could we expect to get our 68p - if the kamikaze don’t get their way? Would say they want to crash and burn into txp, however with the lack of hydrocarbons over there, they might even find that difficult 🤣

[nocents] 02/9/2024 12:01

8147
Lol. Arrogance. Remarkable and ignorant arrogance.
Know thy company.
(Know thyself probably more important in this case) !!!

Threads degenerate and become of no use when they talk about people, so I will now use the filter.

[pavey ark] 02/9/2024 08:56

“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

― Mark Twain

[flyinghorse1] 01/9/2024 20:06

lol. Amateurs

[nocents] 01/9/2024 10:43

The poster calling” nonsense” ( Flyinghorse) has absolutely no idea about Trin and is to be ignored or filtered. Waste of posts.
I have held Trin for 11 years and wonder even if you are a holder, because you are coming out with a distinct lack of knowledge or sense.
PA may have filtered me, but I do agree with his last post. Addendum:-all pivots on the Cascadura results in September. But correct…Trin is wanted( on the cheap) by 2 companies!! Meaningful.

[pavey ark] 01/9/2024 08:20

"nonsense".....hmmm??.....certainly plenty of that about.

People who have followed this for some time....actual Trin shareholders.... will know that an extensive ,external, expert review of Galeota was commissioned and found that the best /most cost effective way to begin to exploit the field was to use the existing platforms and sidetrack into the adjacent deposits.
It has also been pointed out that it would be very cost effective to roll out a new (non metal)pipeline the short distance from the shore.

It is rather obvious that the offshore rigs have been closely (and regularly) inspected and found up to the job .......my only expectation was for them to produce for five years !!!???

Back to my very personal views and how they affect my investment decisions.

For once things seem quite straightforward .......always a worry !!1

1. Two companies want the company I hold

2. There is a cash offer of 68p (25% higher than the current share price)!!!!

3. The second bidder is offering an all paper deal almost 50% below the cash bid !!!

4. The paper bid becomes more attractive if their drilling programme is successful.

The cash bid must be the lower risk option.

[flyinghorse1] 31/8/2024 19:55

Nosense,
You obviously did not read what I said- Galeota up dip of Trintes is not developable.

[nocents] 31/8/2024 19:50

West coast offshore does very well and is the only area not to show declines! Offshore is decent for Trin.
Galeta just needs a larger operstor( like Txp) to fund it or sell it to zperenco who drill profitably on its margins.

[flyinghorse1] 31/8/2024 19:39

Pavey,
At least 1000 bbls/ day, so circa 400kbbks per year are from offshore production. So half the production you quote is from offshore with the bulk from aged infrastucture and ancient pipeline. Good luck.

[pavey ark] 31/8/2024 19:18

"Trin carry a lot of offshore risk/ cost."

My comment about limited risk refers to the value of TRIN shares and not to any drilling/capex risk.

I have not included the Galeota development /cost/potential in my post or risk assessment.

With any sort of managed decline of 7-8% TRIN would produce over 4m barrels of oil over the next five years without developing Galeota ....I would suggest that TXP are rather dependent of a successful outcome of their recent drilling programme and therefore a more risky proposition.

The rather stark fact that seems to be overlooked/ignored is that there is a cash offer of 68p on the table.

However my views may be influence by the fact that I hold TRIN shares.

(Trin have spent a considerable amount of cash on upgrading their offshore assets including expensive new storage facilities and have made abandonment provisions.)

[flyinghorse1] 31/8/2024 18:36

Trin carry a lot of offshore risk/ cost.
2013 was the Galeota well and its still not developed. I dont think it will ever get developed as its up dip of the main field, so very shallow so they will have to develop deeper zones that presumably have no production history and high risk.
LO want WD5/6 back.
Theres risk on both sides (Txp/Trin)but id rather have gas on land than very shallow offshore that carrys abandonment liability, and current ageing infrastructure ( circa 50yrs old)