Travis Perkins Share Discussion Threads

[lordwilson] 20/7/2008 22:18

the whole question is whether the share price as with all others in this sector has adequately took into consideration the next twelve to eighteen months of downturn . And the upcoming bad debts that TP and the like will accrue from builders going under .

[zimzoot] 11/7/2008 13:11

Panmure Gordon SELL Reiteration

[m.t.glass] 10/7/2008 05:58

From the looks of that, they appear to see it as TPK buying GFT- in the event that anything happened at all

Or - given the timing - it may be that the rumour was floated to help mask today's scheduled Trading Statement from GFTU - and that the rumour will be denied a week later

[m.t.glass] 10/7/2008 05:58

By John Mulligan
(independent.ie)


Thursday July 10 2008

It seems like trying to identify any good stock-buying opportunities these days is very much a hit-and-miss affair.

Just when the banks seemed they could go no lower, they did. And with the housing market in a state of complete disarray, it seemed that buying shares in Grafton Group would be the last thing on most investors' minds.

The owner of DIY chains Woodies and Atlantic Homecare, as well as building merchants including Chadwicks, has seen its share price demolished on the back of sharply reduced housing starts and tightening consumer spending. Its shares have tumbled about 65pc in the past year.

Irish housing registrations declined by 61pc in May compared with the same month in 2007, as projects were cut back in the face of evaporating demand. This would seem to make Grafton a stock for either the brave or foolhardy; but when share prices are so low, it raises the question of whether something larger such as a takeover may loom.

NCB analyst John Sheehan yesterday floated the idea that an all-share merger between Grafton and its UK peer, Travis Perkins, may have merit.

Both companies are trading at multi-year lows and Mr Sheehan reckons a merger of the two could create over €500m worth of synergies, especially important as they battle to maintain momentum in collapsing property markets.

Grafton already operates in the UK, while Travis Perkins, which owns 900 builders depots and 200 DIY stores under the Wickes brand, is currently confined to its home market.

In the first four months of this year, sales at Travis Perkins rose 6.8pc, despite the state of the market, but investors are still circumspect. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley cut its share price target for Travis Perkins to £7.35 from £12.20.

While Mr Sheehan believes that shareholder support for a merger between Grafton and Travis Perkins would be forthcoming, one London analyst cast doubt on the level of goodwill that might exist towards such a deal.

"Travis Perkins management have a pretty good reputation," said Oriel Securities analyst Paul Checketts, who thinks the idea of a merger has merit, but could be difficult to pull off.

"There would certainly be efficiency gains, and some shareholders might look for an exit, but many are prepared to see past the current weakness of Travis Perkins' share price because it's due to macro problems."

Bar the prospect of any merger or similar deal, buying into Grafton now at €3.05 will be a long game. Just how long depends on the speed at which the stumbling economy eventually recovers.

[m.t.glass] 09/7/2008 22:38

Don't know if it will be a bid - or possibly a merger - possibly even a takeover. The likely partner being Grafton (GFTU) who are about the same size company at around £550m

[tuffbet] 09/7/2008 13:30

Story on FT Alphaville today about possible bid seems likely to be the main reason for the rise + another story that FSA are about to announce new rules to make shorting much more difficult.

May well have seen the bottom but who knows - bid story makes sense because of synergy

[davidwilkin] 24/6/2008 16:41

i think you can safely wait for £4 with these - just look again at the beginning of september, dont be tempted into any bear rallies or dead cat bounces.

[csmwssk1] 24/6/2008 14:42

I thought these were cheap at £10, a bargain at £7, thought about buying at £5.50, then thought just wait a bit longer, nothing is cheap at the mo, sentiment is against almost everything, until it changes everything will fall, dont fight the trend, its better to get in after they have bottomed and rose a £1 than to get in early and then lose £2.

[m.t.glass] 23/6/2008 13:16

I can vouch for that situation with brickies. My cousin is one, and spent this weekend building a new tall garden wall at home, and last week a new garage. The significance of this being that these jobs have been waiting to be done for 4 years - and suddenly he has time, and nowhere else to go. He normally works within 30-50 miles of home - but his last two contracts were 155 miles and 180 miles away.

[davidwilkin] 22/6/2008 14:11

i think i can recall the telegraph questor column saying buy this less than 2 months ago when the shares were around £9.50....ouch, that was a bad call but i dont think anybody realised even then just how bad things were going to get for the housing market. Bricklayers are having to phone around for work because theres no new sites been started, even plumbers havnt got the work on that they had, they are now ringing you rather than the other way round. Happy days eh??

[davidwilkin] 22/6/2008 14:02

Not a sector to be in at present - theres much worse to come, theres no earnings visibility whatsoever at present, this along with the housebuilders will recover but it wont be yet for a long time - we will see £4 before we see
£8 again. i work for a timber merchants and its just this month we are starting too slow, there are mass redundancies across the sector at present and there are no signs of it stopping. This is 1 stock to short for another £2 yet.

[m.t.glass] 20/6/2008 08:36

More on that mixed portfolio of outlets - all exposed to cutbacks in construction and deferment of expensive diy projects - and still about to open more branches in several of these -

Owns biggest chain of UK builders merchants, and Wickes diy chain. 1100 UK outlets. (includes 75 Keyline Builders merchants, 140 City Plumbing Supplies, 600+ Travis Perkins Builders merchants, 35 CCF Ceilings/Drylinings/Partitions branches, 190+ Wickes diy branches, 28 branches of Benchmarx Kitchens/Joinery, 39 branches of Tile Giant)

Because a lot of these divisions are quite recent acquisitions, quite a lot of site duplication exists. Duplicated rents, duplicated staffing, duplicated vehicle fleets.

[toffeeman] 19/6/2008 20:54

Ah a sell rec with a target share price higher than the current one great innit!

[m.t.glass] 19/6/2008 18:54

Travis Perkins "sell," target price reduced
06/18/08 - Panmure Gordon & Co

LONDON, June 18 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Panmure Gordon maintain their "sell" rating on Travis Perkins Plc (TPK-GBX). The target price has been reduced from 750p to 685p.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has exposure to a variety of consumer businesses in an uncertain housing market environment. Although Travis Perkins' recent entry into the tiles and kitchens segments and potential expansion in the dry lining, kitchens and plumbing segments provide several opportunities in the UK market, it also increases the company's exposure to an uncertain macro environment, the analysts add.

[s34icknote] 19/6/2008 18:36

ME TOO IN AT 780P.
wORTH TOPING UP AT SOME STAGE TOO LATE TO BAIL OUT NOW!

[kiltrock] 19/6/2008 16:23

GOSH Made mistake buying at £10 level I thought this stock may have gone slightly lower, but not to today's level. this bear market is taking its toll on stocks. however this only presents further buying opertunities across the board

[arja] 09/6/2008 06:33

just consolidated for a few days . likely to head lower and now SOR situation .

[1964steve] 05/6/2008 10:27

I just saw on the IG news platform that Dresdner are placing 5 million shares in TPK at 765.

[ddav] 05/6/2008 09:20

I notice Robbie Burns has just added another £10 short!

[sandbank] 05/6/2008 08:25

Are we seeing TPK bottoming out? - or is there worse to come?

[iangill] 04/6/2008 16:19

Next AGM 13-May-09 (E)
Annual Report Released 03-Mar-09 (E)
Next prelim announcement 04-Feb-09 (E)
Next year end (to be reported) 31-Dec-08
Next interim announcement 30-Jul-08 (C)

[vincedimalta] 23/5/2008 07:06

when are the results due?

[weemonkey] 22/5/2008 14:22

debt is fine provided you can more than service it

roll on reuslts