Travis Perkins Share Discussion Threads

[hyper al] 11/11/2005 08:55

Elsworth

Not a real chartist, but it looks like it has hit the bottom trend line, so could go up 80p-£1 from this level.

[elsworth] 11/11/2005 08:43

I flipped the chart the other way.....when it straightened i was amazed how quickly these actually dipped below £14!!!!!!!!

....could easily rebound

[hyper al] 11/11/2005 08:36

Elsworth

I thought you said you were looking for £10.50, if so, this fall is not overdone.

[elsworth] 11/11/2005 08:32

are these overdone with this fall

[waldron] 11/11/2005 07:06

GO TO OTHER THREAD by Hyper Al

[waldron] 11/11/2005 07:05

Trading Statement

RNS Number:9876T
Travis Perkins PLC
11 November 2005

11 November 2005

Travis Perkins plc

Trading Update

Travis Perkins is today providing an update on the group's trading:

Whilst overall trading in the first four months of the second half-year has been
broadly in line with expectations, market conditions and lead indicators have
worsened significantly from mid-October.

Ten Months Two Months Four Months
to October to August to October
2005 2005 2005
Interim
Announcement
Like-for-like turnover per trading day
General Merchanting + 0.9% +0.1 - 0.4%
Specialist Merchanting - 2.7% -0.5 - 0.9%
Retailing - Core - 6.2% -7.4 - 9.0%
- Showroom -13.8% -21.1%

In retailing, competitors recently launched increased price led promotional
activity aimed at recovering lost market share. Although much of the activity
has involved product categories not sold by Wickes, we have seen some impact on
volumes both from this and from a further deterioration in consumer confidence.

We anticipate that this heightened level of price driven competition will
continue into 2006 and will reverse some of the market share gains made up to
August 2005. Wickes has deliberately not responded directly on price, but
instead targeted promotions and further cost reductions have enabled Wickes to
maintain its operating margins in this tougher environment.

In merchanting our selective pricing tactics and our improved offer to our trade
customers has continued to gain turnover and profit, with some evidence we are
gaining market share overall. Despite this, we have seen a slow down in activity
from mid-October, and our monthly customer confidence surveys have recorded a
marked deterioration in anticipated workloads and order books.

Accordingly, we expect trading conditions in merchanting to worsen more than
usual through the winter period, with the prospect of an extended shutdown in
the building sector over the holiday season.

We continue to take action to mitigate the effects of this environment.

Our like-for-like numbers employed continue to fall relative to 2004 and
merchanting productivity has continued to rise. With buying gains and synergies
from the Wickes transaction exceeding our original expectations, overall we do
not expect adjusted PBT to be less than #205 million in the year to December 31
2005.

As we indicated in the most recent interim results, we will need to see a
reduction in borrowing costs and in other pressures on disposable incomes before
we can expect a strengthening of our markets next year.

- ends -

Enquiries:

Geoff Cooper, Chief Executive [phone]
Paul Hampden Smith, Finance Director [phone]
Travis Perkins plc

David Bick/Mike Feltham
Holborn Public Relations [phone]



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

TSTVBLFFEFBEFBL

[waldron] 11/11/2005 07:05

Trading Statement

RNS Number:9876T
Travis Perkins PLC
11 November 2005

11 November 2005

Travis Perkins plc

Trading Update

Travis Perkins is today providing an update on the group's trading:

Whilst overall trading in the first four months of the second half-year has been
broadly in line with expectations, market conditions and lead indicators have
worsened significantly from mid-October.

Ten Months Two Months Four Months
to October to August to October
2005 2005 2005
Interim
Announcement
Like-for-like turnover per trading day
General Merchanting + 0.9% +0.1 - 0.4%
Specialist Merchanting - 2.7% -0.5 - 0.9%
Retailing - Core - 6.2% -7.4 - 9.0%
- Showroom -13.8% -21.1%

In retailing, competitors recently launched increased price led promotional
activity aimed at recovering lost market share. Although much of the activity
has involved product categories not sold by Wickes, we have seen some impact on
volumes both from this and from a further deterioration in consumer confidence.

We anticipate that this heightened level of price driven competition will
continue into 2006 and will reverse some of the market share gains made up to
August 2005. Wickes has deliberately not responded directly on price, but
instead targeted promotions and further cost reductions have enabled Wickes to
maintain its operating margins in this tougher environment.

In merchanting our selective pricing tactics and our improved offer to our trade
customers has continued to gain turnover and profit, with some evidence we are
gaining market share overall. Despite this, we have seen a slow down in activity
from mid-October, and our monthly customer confidence surveys have recorded a
marked deterioration in anticipated workloads and order books.

Accordingly, we expect trading conditions in merchanting to worsen more than
usual through the winter period, with the prospect of an extended shutdown in
the building sector over the holiday season.

We continue to take action to mitigate the effects of this environment.

Our like-for-like numbers employed continue to fall relative to 2004 and
merchanting productivity has continued to rise. With buying gains and synergies
from the Wickes transaction exceeding our original expectations, overall we do
not expect adjusted PBT to be less than #205 million in the year to December 31
2005.

As we indicated in the most recent interim results, we will need to see a
reduction in borrowing costs and in other pressures on disposable incomes before
we can expect a strengthening of our markets next year.

- ends -

Enquiries:

Geoff Cooper, Chief Executive [phone]
Paul Hampden Smith, Finance Director [phone]
Travis Perkins plc

David Bick/Mike Feltham
Holborn Public Relations [phone]



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

TSTVBLFFEFBEFBL

[elsworth] 09/11/2005 11:09

I'm looking to get in around £10.50......looking at the chart, its getting there steady!!!!!

[cashbunny] 04/11/2005 20:13

Hyper, I wouldnt consider TP to be a defensive stock at all. They are stuffed after wickes and the building market is in decline over the summer with winter to suffer yet when building always slows down. As a builder i can see the reality dawning on the TP suits at my local branches, the last manager was out with 2 days notice and the new one is doomed as he has winter sales to face and a mission to defy the economy or go the same way as the last manager. Building orders are down across the board and Diy isnt going to replace sales at all. All merchants are in decline for at least a year. TP share price, in my opinion, will drop to £10 or so before it recovers .
dj derry has a good idea with cattles, or homebuy are even better, though you've missed the big surge there.
Dont buy into buiding merchants now, for a defensive stock look for something that is busy in a depression like lenders to the poor credit rating underclass, who are going to grow steadily thanks to mr bliars ego trips.

[waldron] 31/10/2005 14:15

Morgan Stanley Cuts Travis Perkins Target

Monday, October 31, 2005 5:07:52 AM ET
Dow Jones Newswires



0947 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley reduces Travis Perkins (TPK.LN) price target to 1726p from 1881p. Notes a share price fall of 30% since February on bad news for the DIY sector. However, keeps overweight rating. Says Travis Perkins' exposure to the DIY sector is only 22%. "Merchant operations remain the key driver where trading is challenging, but does not look set for a precipitous decline like DIY." Reduces pretax profit forecast for FY '05 to GBP228M under IFRS, from GBP233.5M under UK GAAP. However, a more flexible cost base and GBP23M incremental synergies from Wickes underpin the FY '06 forecast advance of 7%. Shares +1.8% at 1360p. (JEK)

[waldron] 31/10/2005 14:13

Morgan Stanley Cuts Travis Perkins Target

Monday, October 31, 2005 5:07:52 AM ET
Dow Jones Newswires



0947 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley reduces Travis Perkins (TPK.LN) price target to 1726p from 1881p. Notes a share price fall of 30% since February on bad news for the DIY sector. However, keeps overweight rating. Says Travis Perkins' exposure to the DIY sector is only 22%. "Merchant operations remain the key driver where trading is challenging, but does not look set for a precipitous decline like DIY." Reduces pretax profit forecast for FY '05 to GBP228M under IFRS, from GBP233.5M under UK GAAP. However, a more flexible cost base and GBP23M incremental synergies from Wickes underpin the FY '06 forecast advance of 7%. Shares +1.8% at 1360p. (JEK)

[hyper al] 26/10/2005 10:32

jeffian

Is it really only £1.60 per share for the freeholds!

Ow well, will keep clear a bit longer.

Take a look at AYM, 100% in that.

[jeffian] 26/10/2005 10:21

Ah, the usual in-depth research, eh, Hyper?! I don't know if you noticed, but TPK took over Wickes last year which pretty well doubled it in size. If you strip out the Wickes contribution, turnover and profit are pretty well flat and the market is obviously concerned that TPK's acquisition-integration skills are on a par with Morrisons (I personally don't think so, but they've clearly bought into the retail - as opposed to wholesale - side of the business at the top of the cycle just as trading is getting tough). The share price is likely to languish, therefore, IMHO until TPK are able to show that they've got a grip on the Wickes business and can grow profits in a more difficult economic environment.

As for the 'land bank', whilst they do own a lot of freeholds, the value shown in their last accounts (admittedly pre-Wickes) equates to around £1.60/share. Nice enough, but hardly major support for a £14 share price

Regards, Ian

[hyper al] 26/10/2005 09:34

jeffian

To be honest I don't know, except they appear to be going up.

Was just taking a quick look.

The main reason I like this company is it has an enormous land bank.

[jeffian] 26/10/2005 09:29

And what conclusions do you draw from the turnover and profit figures, Hyper?

Regards, Ian

[hyper al] 26/10/2005 07:21

Look at the turnover and profits not the SP

[firenza] 25/9/2005 16:32

I just love the thread title

"Travis Perkins/Keyline - Steady Growth"

ROFLMAO

[monty burns] 17/9/2005 09:56

Been watching, but not happy with that 140%+ gearing, nor the final salary pension issues.

May be a quick recovery, but may equally be a steady decline - depending on the trading, ergo the housing market and all that future of the UK consumer economy debate.

Just don't think there's much slack in that balance sheet and therefore pretty risky. Prefer boring builders on PE figures of 6, preferably with large bags of cash and no debt - but not even those right now.

[madgooner] 16/9/2005 23:02

LOL !

you're obviously right, I should have bought at £18 !

[jeffian] 16/9/2005 22:26

Good grief, Madgooner, you actually 'buy' something? I thought you sat on the sidelines thinking about it!

8-)

Regards, Ian

(Edit: Ooops! Just re-read your post; see you're 'thinking about it'. Yep, that's the Madgooner I know!)

[madgooner] 16/9/2005 22:17

This is now rated on 10 times forward earnings whilst other related plays are on much more generous ratings. Looks a buy to me, based upon the medium term outlook for business construction activity (I think the consumer will continue to struggle for a while yet, but Govt, commercial building should hold up ok)

Just a possibility of a write down of goodwill on the Wickes purchase that is making me hesitate.

[zzaxx99] 12/9/2005 18:19

Not sure whether I can say, though you might make a reasonable guess at the source from the other item in the last post.

However, I don't want to make too much of it - like I say, I don't know how reliable it is - rumours circulate all the time, and may or may not have a basis in fact. I do know that HD have been looking at Wickes for at least 15 years, and never got around to bidding, so....

[mickconn11] 12/9/2005 16:07

zzaxx. Home Depot and Travis. Where did you hear or see that.

Ta. Mick.

[maywillow] 05/9/2005 08:31

Travis Perkins H1 below forecasts in tough markets UPDATE

(adds detail on Wickes)
LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC turned in results for the first half of
2005 below market expectations today in "tough" conditions.
The board remained optimistic however and said it is confident of making
further progress after what it referred to as "a solid performance" for the
half-year.
The group raised pretax profit to 110 mln stg in the six months to June 30
2005 from 100.6 mln a year earlier, 3 pct under consensus. Turnover for the
half-year was 1.29 bln stg, up from 913.6 mln.
The interim dividend was lifted to 11 pence from 9.5 pence.
Travis Perkins confirmed that, despite a slowdown at Wickes, which was
acquired in February, the integration process is running ahead of expectations.
However, like-for like sales across Wickes 171 retail and showroom outlets fell
4.9 pct on a like-for-like basis in the six months to June 2005 and, since then
trading has worsened with like-for-like sales at Wickes down by 7.4 pct on a
working day basis throughout July and August.
On a more positive note, chief executive Geoff Cooper said the group's
merchanting business is performing well and the retail business is beginning to
gain market share.
Since the end of the first half-year, the merchanting market has been stable
and the trend of like-for-like sales per working day in July and August improved
slightly to minus 0.1 pct.
"While we anticipate that trading will remain challenging, we are confident
that the group will make further progress," he said.
At Wickes, Cooper said the board expects the tougher trading environment
experienced in recent months to continue for the remainder of the year. He said
the UK retail environment has experienced a tough summer, with the DIY sector
suffering more than most other non-food sectors, Cooper continued.
Cooper said the recent cut in interest rates, although helpful, has not
resulted in a significant change in sentiment. Further reductions in borrowing
costs and in other pressures on disposable incomes are likely to be necessary
before the group can expect stronger markets in 2006, he added.
With anticipated lower volume growth, the group has taken early action to
cut costs, reduce headcount, and to build on traditional strengths to serve
customers better.
Looking beyond 2005, the group said it intends to continue this approach to
drive further improvements in performance so as to combat anticipated market
conditions and deal with impending cost pressures, particularly in energy, fuel
and pensions.
Cooper said that in the period under review, good progress has been made
across the group, as enlarged by the Wickes acquisition, in what has proved to
be a more difficult market than the group has experienced for some years.
Operating margin was 10.6 pct compared to 11.7 pct in the first half of
2004, reflecting the structural changes following the incorporation of Wickes in
the group's results for the first time and acceleration of the brown field
branch opening programme.
Turnover and profit before tax in the non-Wickes related operations were
938.5 mln stg and 101.6 mln respectively and in respect of the Wickes
acquisition 352.7 mln and 8.4 mln respectively.
Cooper pointed out that the results are presented for the first time under
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) which has reduced pretax
profit by 5.1 mln stg.
Turning to the group's markets, Cooper said underlying drivers of long-term
growth in its markets remain strong.
Demand for new dwellings continues to run ahead of current supply, with a
2005 forecast of 183,000 completions, some 90,000 short of the estimated annual
requirement.
He said the group should see the beneficial effect of infrastructure
investment related to the 2012 London Olympics by early 2006.
At Wickes, like-for-like turnover in its core business in the 26 weeks to
June 26 was down by 4.2 pct, whilst turnover in its showroom business was down
by 8.4 pct. Overall Wickes like-for-like turnover was lower by 4.9 pct.
Wickes also reined back expenditure on planned marketing and brand building
activity in response to consumers' unwillingness to maintain spending levels.
Cooper said recent data shows Wickes gaining market share slightly on a like
for-like basis.
In the half-year under review, in addition to 171 Wickes' branches, the
group said it added 37 new branches to its merchanting operations.
Cooper said potential deal flow remains strong, and the group expects to
exceed the full year 2004 total of 51 net new branches in the merchanting
division.

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