Travis Perkins Share Discussion Threads

[smoketrader] 08/8/2004 20:20

Not much volume on the drop but still looks like a sell

[zzaxx99] 06/8/2004 08:50

Thar she blows?

[zzaxx99] 04/8/2004 20:53

For those of a TA bent, that looks like a nice H&S top to me, with the price poised right around the neckline. Also has stayed below 150/200 MA for first time since November 02 (which led to a 100 point drop). To me, conclusive break of 1300 should lead to testing 1250 & 1200

[jeffian] 12/5/2004 22:40

Ouch! What was that all about?

Regards, Ian

[jeffian] 17/3/2004 10:33

Further to post #6 above, I've lifted the following from a market research site. In a nutshell, what I think it is telling us is that:
1) About 60% of the builders' merchant market is controlled by 5 main players, of which TPK is one. Thus, not only is there a fair degree of competition between the top 5, but also 40% of the market is in smaller independent hands.
2) Builders' merchants have a significant, but not overpowering, share of the overall market for building materials; at the top end they provide about 60% of plumbing supplies but at the bottom they provide only 8/9% of decorating and kitchen supplies with most other areas on the 30-40% range.

TPK's strategy is to grow by a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. I cannot see that the process of 'consolidation' within the industry has reached the point where the regulators will be looking at competition issues and I look forward to many years of growth still to come from TPK!

Regards, Ian

(This from the marketresearch.com site:

"The market consolidation has continued throughout the last 2 years with both leading national and regional Merchant groups acquiring organisations that will boost both market coverage and product ranges. The process has been extended during 2002/3 with the concentration focused on acquiring particular specialisms that will expand the areas of operation, although the rate of consolidation has slowed consideraby since the late 1990's mainly due to the increasing concentration at the upper end of the Merchants market. The Merchants market is now dominated by a leading group of 5 organisations Saint Gobain (Jewson), Wolseley, Travis Perkins, BSS and Grafton.

The leading group of merchants, together were estimated to account for 61% share of the builders and plumbers merchants market in 2002, and these companies have shown consistent growth in both turnover and number of outlets over the last 3-4 years. The balance of market share is held by regional and local companies, reflecting the key service offered by merchants, ie a local supply of a wide range of commodities to a large number of small and medium sized builders and plumbers.

The most significant products sector for the merchants is the plumbing and drainage materials where the merchants are estimated to for 58-60% of the total market. This compares to their share of the timber & timber products market which is an estimated 20-25% share, and where the merchants are in direct competition to more specialist distributors. Merchants also hold significant share of the market for roofing and insulation products (38-40%), bricks, blocks & concrete (38-40%) and cement & plaster (29-32%). The merchants have least strength in the kitchens market where share is estimated at approximately 9-10% of the overall market, although the development of specialist kitchen and bathroom sales rooms within Merchants outlets in the last 2-3 years is beginning to reap benefits. The decorating products market is also an area where Merchant perform less well with an estimated 8% share of the total market. The weaker position of the merchants in these sectors reflects the high level of competition from alternative channels in each of those markets.")

[jeffian] 17/3/2004 00:25

safesurfer,
I haven't done the research but what makes you think that TPK have such a 'dominant position' that they will attract the attention of the regulators? I always thought that this was such a fragmented industry (builders merchants are two-a-penny aren't they?) that TPK could go on acquiring new outlets for years to come. I'll look into it further, but if you've got any stats to back up your claim, I'll listen,

Regards, Ian

[safesurfer] 16/3/2004 20:13

can anyone suggest where this company is going now they have such a dominant position in the UK...I can't see the regulators letting them acquire for much longer in the UK and SIG have shown what a disaster growing into Europe can be...more different markets?

days of this sort of growth over?

[grupo guitarlumber] 08/3/2004 18:28

LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC reported strong profits growth for 2003
and said it made a positive start to the current year.
Pretax profits rose 18.2 pct last year to 162.7 mln stg on the back of sales
up 18.4 pct at 1.68 bln stg. Sales growth was driven by the acquisition of
independent merchants, investment in new brownfield sites and the acquisition of
the Jayhard and B&G plumbing and heating businesses. Group like for like sales
were up 4 pct.
The company’s operating profits before goodwill grew by 21 pct to 191.4 mln
stg.
As a result of the good performance, Travis lifted the final dividend 25.4
pct to 16.8 pence. The total payout for the year rose 25.1 pct to 24.4 pence.
Chief executive Frank McKay said the strong performance was achieved on the
back of “excellent acquisition and organic growth”.
“We have made a positive start to 2004 and given reasonable market
conditions are well placed to make further progress in the current year.”
EPS before goodwill and profit on property disposals was up 20.1 pct at 110
pence.
The operating margin before goodwill improved to 11.4 pct from 11.2 pct.
By the end of 2003 Travis Perkins was trading from a total of 700 branches.
The group said it sees significant additional scope for profitable growth
through the acquisition of regional groups, independent merchants, the further
expansion of brownfield site developments and the greater efficiencies generated
by ongoing improvement programmes.
ak/

[toffeeman] 26/2/2004 17:17

I'd be tempted at 1380

[thedickster] 14/2/2004 10:47

cracking , i suspect Dires sales will b announced, looking to short next week

[toffeeman] 26/1/2004 13:21

re-test under way methinks but still not short - RSI turned up and macd can't decide - so I won't either.

Mind you short here with a CR stop it's 100 points with the opening spread so that would take it to above 1400 which is sh1tty

[dondee] 24/1/2004 12:38

Talk on Radio 4 today of int rate rise in Feb. So may affect things. There again if some people decide to build extensions and not sell their house etc!!

[thedickster] 24/1/2004 11:40

Interesting to see it up when most of the Con Sector was down on Friday...mmmmm

Muppet Brokers pushing it at the moment , think it was ABN's pick of the crop for 2004, so should be a profit warning l8er in the year lol

[toffeeman] 23/1/2004 14:17

With you there Ricardo - no real volume though at present which makes it quite hard to call.

[thedickster] 23/1/2004 13:25

looking for a short entry in the next day or two

[thedickster] 19/1/2004 11:16

out for plus 4, not weak n uff

[thedickster] 16/1/2004 09:48

short from 22, looks weak, we shall see

[ariane] 11/1/2004 09:19

mw price was more likely 1310p on the 7th jan 2004.

Current price 1316p

Resistence 1320p and Support 1210p

52 week high 1375p

NTAV 129p


good dividend paid May and November

but neg. cash 240p

watch and wait.

[maywillow] 07/1/2004 11:58

LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC said it expects earnings for 2003 to be in
line with market forecasts.
The distributor of building materials, timber and plumbing and heating
equipment said its 2003 results were helped by favourable market conditions,
particularly in the first half, and a satisfactory second-half performance.
Gearing at Dec 31, 2003 is expected to have been below 28 pct compared with
40 pct a year earlier.
The group added 100 branches last year and had 700 outlets at the year-end.
[e-mail]
ak/


Cuurrent Price 1210p (7th January 2004) approx

[maywillow] 07/1/2004 11:56

LONDON (AFX) - Travis Perkins PLC said it expects earnings for 2003 to be in
line with market forecasts.
The distributor of building materials, timber and plumbing and heating
equipment said its 2003 results were helped by favourable market conditions,
particularly in the first half, and a satisfactory second-half performance.
Gearing at Dec 31, 2003 is expected to have been below 28 pct compared with
40 pct a year earlier.
The group added 100 branches last year and had 700 outlets at the year-end.
[e-mail]
ak/