Transware Share Discussion Threads

[isis] 26/6/2002 00:00

If a client had defaulted - which be a worst case scenario - they would have issued a warning by now. If this is just sentiment selling then these are a real bargain - we really need something from the co., but they have told Techinvest things are OK. What a f@cking dilemna.

[isis] 25/6/2002 17:52

Transware PLC (10p Ords)


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Trade Code Trade Time Volume Bid Ask
10217NS902 13.25 16:26 3000 13 15
3025BHOE02 13.25 16:25 5000 13 15
10217QK902 13.25 15:56 3500 13 15
000LEOCU02 13.25 15:03 4000 13 15
3025BC8802 13.25 14:29 207 13 15
2023YQJ802 13.25 12:30 3190 13 15
10216OSG02 15 12:03 16000 13 15
30259UHP02 13 10:21 2085 13 15
10216NGI02 13 10:21 874 13 15
000LDQH802 13 10:20 3099 13 15
102175LW02 13.2 10:00 725 13 15
2023VDB802 14 16:17 ( 24/06 ) 5000 14 16
000LDC8N02 17 16:15 ( 24/06 ) 40000 14 16
30257RAB02 17 16:15 ( 24/06 ) 250000 14 16
2023UZWU02 15.8 15:13 ( 24/06 ) 10000 14 16
102168N602 14.25 14:57 ( 24/06 ) 1515 14 16
102167QL02 14.1 14:53 ( 24/06 ) 561 14 16
102166S602 14.25 14:27 ( 24/06 ) 5000 14 16
2023V0GA02 14.37 13:38 ( 24/06 ) 5000 14 17
000LD9AG02 15.25 13:01 ( 24/06 ) 83 15 17
102166FF02 15 12:49 ( 24/06 ) 10000 16 17
2023TNUK02 16.12 11:17 ( 24/06 ) 2129 16 17
302568VI02 16.1 10:50 ( 24/06 ) 10000 16 17
2023TNPQ02 17 10:49 ( 24/06 ) 6000 17 17.5
30256R6002 18 08:16 ( 24/06 ) 27367 17 18
10214S8E02 18.25 16:23 ( 21/06 ) 10000 17 18
000LBJTB02 17.1 15:52 ( 21/06 ) 1404 17 18
30251MPZ02 18 15:39 ( 21/06 ) 5000 17 18
3025260R02 18.25 15:23 ( 21/06 ) 10000 17 18
30251HXD02 17.88 15:02 ( 21/06 ) 5000 17 18
2023PCK702 17.88 14:57 ( 21/06 ) 502 17 18
30250C0Y02 17.9 14:49 ( 21/06 ) 5000 17 18
10214PHN02 17.88 14:38 ( 21/06 ) 4000 17 18
10214PHJ02 17.9 14:37 ( 21/06 ) 6000 17 18
10214PF802 17.9 14:23 ( 21/06 ) 5000 17 18
10214S0102 18 14:08 ( 21/06 ) 18000 17 18
10213SNM02 18 11:01 ( 21/06 ) 12000 17 18
2023O09302 17.1 09:09 ( 21/06 ) 1000 17 18
000LAK7G02 17.1 08:42 ( 21/06 ) 451 17 18
000L9V2J02 17.12 16:09 ( 20/06 ) 2808 17 18
10213L6W02 17.12 16:00 ( 20/06 ) 91 17 18
10213HPE02 17.12 14:58 ( 20/06 ) 500 17 18
3024XXCM02 17 13:54 ( 20/06 ) 7500 17 18
10213DYJ02 17.1 13:46 ( 20/06 ) 492 17 18
2023K6AT02 17.1 09:44 ( 20/06 ) 1258 17 18
3024UAL202 17.12 15:38 ( 19/06 ) 1500 17 18
1021266802 17.12 13:34 ( 19/06 ) 167 17 18
000L893R02 18 13:11 ( 19/06 ) 1575 17 18



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[isis] 25/6/2002 17:27

Although they are not marked I can't see them being anything other than sales to have forced the price down. They constitute more than the last 3 days trading.

[isis] 25/6/2002 15:20

FINMAC - are you serious the TRW you refer to is in the US & nothing to do with the UK TRW - those RNS's are for the wrong co.

[the jitters] 25/6/2002 15:20

Finmac.......different Transware. UK company not US company.

John, can you point me to a url for the trade log on iii please, as Mytrack also reported them as ordinary trades, although they didnt show until 5.15 when the deals took place at 4.15 according to Mytrack.

Phil

[finmac] 25/6/2002 15:14

Apart from the companies financial fundimentals, they are being sort after by other companies like BAE,that is why I bought the shares in the first place,so why is the price falling with so much interest in taking part or the whole of them over.

[isis] 25/6/2002 14:19

Anyone who wants to read Techinvest's last tip can read it on the March sample issue on their site www.techinvest.co.uk
I'm tempted to buy more, but this market could get worse.

[the jitters] 25/6/2002 14:11

contract note.......why do u say the 250k was a dump? surely the MM have strict guidelines about reporting late or delayed trades? (it was marked as an ordinary trade).

The drop from 25m to 21m in forward orders doesnt worry me. forward order intake can often be patchy and in such an economic environment this is likely to be even greater. Bottom line is they have a nice big chunk of cash due to flow in........and thats all I need to know for now. Of course if the order stream continues to decline over a couple of years then I would be concerned, but there is no reason this should be so.

Still totally bamboozled by the price action though.....MM must be doing a good job then ;o)

Phil

[isis] 25/6/2002 13:24

perhaps it is this market - EPI are trading nearly twice cash are profitable & said they would beat forecasts, also provide elearning/localisation.

[thamestrader] 25/6/2002 13:16

If the shares at 48p meant the co was worth £16.2m (see isis' post #200), then at today's price of 14p TRW is worth around £4.5m.

They had £4m in the bank at Dec 31 (same post), and they are profitable, so must have more than this now. Just for laughs, let's say 4.5m.

This means the market thinks TRW is worth only its cash balance, and the rest of the company is worth zero. Clearly either I'm completely bonkers, or the market is.

[isis] 25/6/2002 13:00

Not too worried about trading statement unless it's a profit warning although it would clear up any doubts. Looks like they were sales if price is anything to go by.
The co. does have a blue chip client list & localisation/elearning are still growth areas, perhaps this an overreaction with a bottled seller.

[gzr] 25/6/2002 11:56

Epic shares aren't doing too well either.

[isis] 25/6/2002 11:47

I'm wonding what could have changed so drastically since this article from sharecast back in Feb:-

Mon 25 Feb 2002

LONDON - Internet learning specialist Transware today reported rising turnover and earnings but warned of falling orders. Its committed future revenues have shrunk from £25m last September to £21.3m.TRW - Transware

Nevertheless, a reduction in overheads plus some timely new orders meant that Transware's pre-tax profit for the six months ended 31 December 2001 were £622,000, up from £453,000 for the period the previous year. Turnover was £6.3m, against £4.3m, and at December 31 Transware had £4m cash.

Chairman Brian Raven said: "The order book has reduced by 14% as a result of the fact that two-thirds of our client base is in the US and has been affected by the downturn exacerbated by September 11. But this is offset by our cost reduction of £1m in the current year".

Transware also announced recent orders from three US customers, Digital Think, NCR and Stellent, worth more than $2m. Other clients include McGraw-Hill, Oracle and Unesco.

Researcher IDC is bullish about the future of e-learning and predicts a 69% annual compound growth in e-learning to 2004, bringing the overall size of the market to $23bn. According to IDC, North America will account for almost two-thirds of that market, but Western Europe will experience the fastest growth rate, followed by Japan.

Even so, Raven believes that, were e-learning ever to suffer a downturn, Transware would be able to shift its focus to related services.

Raven said: "In the unlikely event that e-learning were to start to plateau, we could still drive growth from our core competence of enabling companies to translate their in-house software into other languages and markets such as Japan and Germany."

House broker Beeson Gregory predicts revenues of £14m and pre-tax profit of £1.9m for the current year ending September, rising to £18.7m and £2.7m the next.

The shares rose 2p to 48.5p this morning, valuing Transware at £16.62m

[thamestrader] 25/6/2002 09:30

I have been waiting to buy in for weeks now, but I simply will not buy a share, however "undervalued" or "oversold" it is, as long as it's falling.

It's simple, just do this:
1. notice that it's undervalued (you've done this by the sounds of it)
2. stick it on your watchlist (you've done this too)
3. meanwhile look out for any bad news (you're still doing this)
4. wait for it to stop falling (be patient)
5. check your research one last time
6. buy (you might miss the very bottom, but so what (unless your day-trading))

Obviously defining step 4 is the tricky bit. But clearly it hasn't happened yet, so you shouldn't be anywhere near step 6 yet.

[millionaire] 25/6/2002 09:22

Morning Phil,
Having seen what has happened last 2 days, is it not a case
of because sudden interest has been shown in the share
that now the MM's mark down to prevent any traders skimming
say in a T10 or whatever. Cynical I know but experience
has shown that this does indeed happen.

[the jitters] 25/6/2002 01:21

The market makers dont know anything we dont...to have been privy to such information, and for such a great length of time is strictly illegal. MM protect themselves by using various methods to keep the market from guessing the supply and demand situation in shares thats all.

If the MM for example was aware of a profit warning coming from TRW, tell me when they would have gained this knowledge as the share price has been falling since the last results in february!

Talking of february, the share price at interims was around 47p a share, and the results were decent (not fantastic, but far from poor either) yet the share price in the absence of any warnings has fallen to its current 16p.

IMO that suggests the fall is overdone and is hence why I bought, if you dont agree then dont buy, it really is as simple as that ;o)

As to the knockers, apart from a few remarks about chilly december days, I have not seen one shred of reasoned argument yet, but thats about what I have come to expect.....I got nothing but flack about owning RSFT and dont expect any great change with TRW either! LOL

Phil

[cvolbrac] 24/6/2002 17:35

4D,

FWIW, I would also like to hear more of your views on Transware.

If you don't like this board, perhaps you could post elsewhere - Motley Fool or iii, for example?

Chris

[johnv] 24/6/2002 17:31

a couple of buys at the end of the day total 290k at 18p.

[the jitters] 24/6/2002 16:17

Come on dave, we had a good discussion about this over the weekend......we all know you can write in a literate and sensible way, so why not do it? There are readers here who would genuinely like to hear your concerns.

I know you addressed the inconsistencies in the balance sheet with me, but you didnt address as isis has said above, the long standing relationships with the world leaders and the strong order book (which should continue being strong due to the long term nature of the agreements).

Phil