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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trakm8 Holdings Plc LSE:TRAK London Ordinary Share GB00B0P1RP10 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.00 6.06% 17.50 17.00 18.00 17.50 16.50 16.50 124,555 11:06:48
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Technology Hardware & Equipment 19.6 -1.7 -2.2 - 9

Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

Showing 6951 to 6974 of 7225 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
15/11/2020
20:13
I thought revenue was £20m for the year. If recurring is only 10. Where has the other 10 come from? If they have churned 100000 - for simpler maths - of the 168000 ins / auto then thats roughly £100 each. So perhaps this is up front money paid on top of recurring. Its coming from somewhere?
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
19:59
You'd think it was less than £3.33 for insurance / auto. Even less than £3.00 in fact. Calculation for ins / auto customers at £3.00 168,000 x £3 x 12 = £6,048,000 £9.8 million - £6,048,000 = £3,752,000 £3,752,000 for 77,000 fleet leaves £4.06 a month for each fleet customer. That can't be right. Fleet surely wouldn't be as low as that. Let's go with the scenario of £6 for each fleet customer. 77,000 x £6 x 12 = £5,544,000 £9.8 million - £5,544,000 = £4,256,000 £4,256,000 for 168,000 insurance / auto customers = £2.11 a month for each insurance / auto customer. It's probably somewhere inbetween the two scenarios but it doesn't look exciting does it?
dave2608
15/11/2020
19:17
In all seriousness, there are one or two interesting areas for discussion. The £3 per unit per month (that the bears keep quoting) doesn't come from any insider knowledge, but from a simple calculation that they've made. In the March 2020 Finals, the recurring revenue was £9.8m. Recurring revenue is directly correlated to the installed base which was 245,000. So £9800000/(12x245000) = £3.33 per unit per month. It's a very crude calculation but does emphasize why the connected base is so important. It's a semi valid point about churn because although the installed base had increased by 2000 devices over the year the recurring revenue had dropped by £0.3m. Explained as follows, "Recurring revenue generated from service and maintenance fees decreased by 3% to £9.8m (FY-2019: £10.1m) due to the reduction in Connections from Insurance customers earlier in the year, which were not offset by the growth from the newly launched customers towards the end of the financial year." So ideally you want that churn to be as low as possible, and naturally that is easier to achieve with Fleet customers. However, as long as that installed base keeps growing then it's not a major problem unless churn is absolutely massive (in which case it'd be unlikely that the installed base would grow significantly). Also from the previous year the average price per unit (on the simple calculation) gives £3.50 per unit, so not much different even with no allowance for the churn explanation. The £3.33 per unit per month figure is (as stated) very crude because of the fleet/insurance ratio and churn but I'll use it for a bull case. What Trakm8 need to do is simple. Ramp up that installed base e.g. 300,000 devices at £3.33 per unit per month is £12m in recurring revenues, 350,000 devices is £14m in recurring revenues, 500,000 devices is £20m in rr etc. The big margins are on this installed base so if this ramps up in the next 2/3 years then Trakm8 will really prosper, if not I suspect they'll be bought out because their existing recurring revenue base is with blue-chip clients and that's very attractive.
michaelmouse
15/11/2020
14:16
Maybe it would be more appropiate to look at the recurring revenue?
dave2608
15/11/2020
13:59
Oh no we are back to this £3 per month number which is now apparently a fact. I don't believe it to be fact. I don't believe trakm8 are selling these things at £3 per month without any additional up front charges. I'm sorry the numbers don't add up. Its simple maths. They have 250000 connections now and showing £20m revenue. How does that work?
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
13:53
Andre - yes I do like facts and real numbers. Obviously I can't know for sure if yours are accurate, can I? What I do know is you attacked me for asking Blonde if he has a position here for absolutely no good reason. That is a fact. Blonde asked me how big my position was here not so long prior which I answered. That is a fact. I can try not to dwell on these small details as they are not the purpose of this forum right. So back to business. I can agree with you that £3 per month for an ins co with no upfront fees on top and no extra money anywhere else sounds like not good business. See I can agree with facts if they make sense. Even though I am a raging bull here and blinded - not blonded - by the burning obsession to be right at everything I say and do all the time..... Yes just in case anyone missed that is was meant as humour.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
13:42
dave2608 - I don't think you're a fool Dave. I like to distinguish between facts and fiction. You did contractadict yourself in that one post. This is a fact. You have not denied or admitted to it. This is a fact. Tracker companies leaving this market decreases supply. This is a fact. Trakm8 are signing up more and more ins companies. This is a fact. Trakm8 numbers of connections have not dropped during covid. This is a fact. I think it went up right but I'm not certain. Drawer your own conclusions on if this is fact. We know new drivers are not entering the market during covid so there is decreased demand in this sector. This is a fact. We know the ins co business is higher churn. This is a fact. We would expect trakm8 connections numbers for ins co to reduce if demand is dropping but theirs have stayed flat or increased slightly. This is a fact. So either demand is increasing elsewhere or supply is decreasing elsewhere. That's your economics Dave I know you'll appreciate that. I dont know if thats a fact. I'm not the economics expert. What we do know is businesses are struggling during covid. If Trakm8 have managed to keep their head above water and maybe even improved slightly that will be good - that's my opinion so not a fact. In a week or so we will get a forward looking statement from Trakm8, both telling us how they have been doing recently and how they think they will do going forward. Hopefully this will contain some facts. If the new lock down had not hit us in the last few weeks then this statement would have probably been clearer. Unfortunately now they will have the option of being vague because we are still not yet fully out of lock down and back to business as usual in UK plc.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
13:04
trakm8Fan - just to satisfy your desire for real numbers, I called and asked my tracking friend if Trak could make £2 on a £3 unit. When he stopped laughing he informed me that they would be lucky to break even and that insurance companies are not offering either to pay for shipping or do what he would call ‘first line support’. If the unit isn’t working then Trak are called to replace it - at their expense. So very marginal profit per unit and all the risk and replacement cost. That’s why he won’t go near it. “If Trak want the business so as to claim big unit numbers then crack on”, were his words. “We’ve got better things to do”. I remain a believer that with fleet numbers dropping and reliability problems rife, this company is in trouble. All IMHO of course.
andre
15/11/2020
13:00
A couple of good quotes. hTTps://www.quora.com/Do-not-argue-with-a-fool-He-will-drag-you-down-to-his-level-and-beat-you-with-experience-How-do-you-identify-and-tackle-these-kinds-of-people hTTps://www.goodreads.com/quotes/518524-never-argue-with-a-fool-onlookers-may-not-be-able
dave2608
15/11/2020
12:48
dave2608 - oh no Dave don't give up because you made one slight mistake contradicting yourself. Lets just move on. We can't all be brilliant all the time Dave. What do you think about trakm8 winning more business with more ins companies. Good or Bad Dave? Lets put this one to bed. That would be a positive result for you.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
12:44
dave2608 - I didn't use the words great turn around. I am just using my if this and if that style to throw nunbers around in exactly the same style as you have just done. Only bizarrely my numbers show the complete opposite of yours.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
12:37
Re post 5378. Even a scenario skewered in your favour amounts to peanuts when bleeding cash to Trak's degree. Is this the great turnaround? Regards post 5379, I really can't be bothered with it.
dave2608
15/11/2020
12:33
dave2608 - I don't necessarily love the word shipped but if you prefer another please let us know what it is. Anyway your post from earlier which mentions my love of the word shipped does also go on to say how you will break it down for me and put it to bed. But in fact you are totally wrong. Let me break down your breaking of it down. 1. Basically he sees larger and larger volume, low margin work as the answer. But is it really the panacea? - I didn't say this. What i said is that if the £3 per month for ins is legitimate then they can still make money yes. 2. Panacea - good word Dave. 3. Is he not forgetting the variable of price which as supply increases, decreases, all other variables being constant? Some economics from you now Dave. Impressive stuff. Not sure how you arrived at supply increasing from your statement. Expecially if all other variables remain constant. But let's move on to his complete contradiction in number 4. In fact to the point where some tracking companies no longer even bother with insurance like in the case of Andre's friend? OK brilliant. We are now saying supply has reduced right Dave because andre knows for a fact that some companies have stopped bothering with ins companies. Is this you breaking it down for me dave because I am a little confused at how two contradictory points prove anything. 5. Let me break it down for you dave. You were wrong. But I can gloss over that unless you want to explain yourself better rather contradicting yourself. 6. Trakm8 have told us they have signed up more ins companies. Therfore they are either - 6.1 seeing more demand in the market or they are 6.2 taking business from other suppliers. Either because they are cheaper - this is the life line all the bears will jump on and hold onto for dear life - or oh I dont know... er maybe could it be that trakm8 are just better. I couldn't possibly know the answer and I will state this clearly I don't know. 6.1 means there is more demand. Imagine that. More demand in a growing market. No wait. It must be busy fools undercutting everyone else. I do not know the answer but I feel it is positive that trakm8 are signing up more and more ins co. I do love this word dave - positive. Does that break it down for you now dave?
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
12:12
dave2608 - another if this and if that post by you guessing at the figures. I can also do that Dave with my if this and if that style you like - Guesswork A. 11,000 insurance added @ £4 a month = £44,000 a month. 6,000 fleet lost at £6 a month = £36,000 a month. £44,000 - £36,000 = +£8,000 a month. Guesswork B. 11,000 insurance added @ £5 a month = £60,000 a month. 6,000 fleet lost at £8 a month = £48,000 a month. £60,000 - £48,000 = +£12,000 a month. Guesswork C. 11,000 insurance added @ £5 a month = £55,000 a month. 6,000 fleet lost at £9 a month = £54,000 a month. £55,000 - £54,000 = +£1,000 a month. Guesswork D. 11,000 insurance added @ £3 a month = £33,000 a month. 6,000 fleet lost at £4 a month = £24,000 a month. £33,000 - £24,000 = +£9,000 a month. According to the posters here who claim to know all the nunbers and everything then scenario D has the most accurate numbers.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
11:54
dave2608 - I was replying to andre who now seems to think £3 for insurance means the end of the world for trakm8. So yes I have to use if that and if the other because we do not have facts do we? Andre says blonde says £3. But nothing else. So I propose they can still make good money at £3 based on some if this and if that guess work. This all presumes that andre and blonde are right with their £3. But the facts we do have is they made £20 revenue with the 250000 connections they have right now. If some of these are £3 for insurance and some are £4 for fleet - more alleged facts posted by others here - then the rest must be paying a hell of a lot more right. Because £20m / 250000 gives £80. So their average currently is 6.67p per month. Assuming they get no money up front. If they got say 40 quid up front then that changes things. Again all guess work because we do not know. So can't possibly piece it together without more facts. So let's be clear on the facts and the fiction here. Yes if they ship more and more and maintain their price they can make money. Well spotted. This is what I am saying. The question for andre or anyone else here claiming to know everything is this - 1. If they get £3 for insurance then is there an up front fee for the piece of hardware and shipping and setup or whatever else - over and above the £3 recurring? - 2. Do they offer first line support for all these £3 connections or does the ins co handle it themselves? - 3. What is the cost for the SIM? 4. What is the cost for the servers which andre mentioned? 5. Does anyone agree with my if this and if that summation that if they can make £2 per month for 12 months then shipping an extra 10000 per month which stay for 12 months will net them £3m extra profit per year.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
11:38
Andre - no I am one person.
trakm8fan
15/11/2020
11:00
I don't see a great deal of climbing. In fact from March 2018 there's been a slight decline. Oh yes they are climbing again, albeit it fractionally, if you conveniently take the overall figure and also conveniently use March 2019 as your baseline; an 11,000 increase in insurance has been offset by a 6,000 decrease in fleet. However you know damn well that fleet will be weighted higher than insurance. I don't know the tariffs; 6jacko or blondeamon will no doubt provide more accurate figures. Lets attach some crude guesstimates. 11,000 insurance added @ £3 a month = £33,000 a month. 6,000 fleet lost at £7 a month = £42,000 a month. £33,000 - £42,0000 = -£9,000 a month. Where's the rapid growth here?
dave2608
15/11/2020
10:47
Teak not owning customers is a big problem. When customers complain to their dealer, the dealer has no loyalty. All they see is remedial money going out. Few will only sell Trak. They are often installers of a lot of other products too and more than one telematics.
andre
15/11/2020
10:07
MM what about the leaky bucket at the bottom. Churn is over 30%! And for the millionth time Sainsbury’s is not high margin it’s break even! Trak may be trying for high volume insurance customers but they only stay maximum of 12 months before they move on from Direct line to a cheaper insurer. Sales costs have been cut to the bone and now operating with partners mainly - extremely risky strategy as trak don’t own the customer. Yes they are trying to compete in optimisation but they now have the launch from Microlise a competing product and Algorithm Peoples pay as you go product flying and owning the market so too late to market in my opinion but marketing as we are seeing is great, wants to be as that team is 5 people strong publishing same old stuff. Do I work at Trak yes, do I think it’s a great company no, it’s rotten from the top. It could be amazing if both Watkins hung up there boots as they are the issue here.
6jacko
15/11/2020
08:46
Reposted these numbers again (post 5362):- 2015/2016 - Total 151,000 Fleet 59,000 Insurance/Auto 92,000 2016/2017 - 190,000 66,000 124,000 2017/2018 - 251,000 73,000 178,000 2018/2019 - 243,000 76,000 167,000 2019/2020 - 245,000 77,000 168,000 Currently (TS) 248,000 70,000 178,000 As stated, total connections are climbing again. Fleet connections have been climbing every year, apart from the first 5 months of this year (for obvious reasons). In terms of strategy it's clear that they are pursuing rapid growth in Fleet and Ins/Auto. In fact, following their most recent high value and high margin contract in fleet with Sainsburys, if there is an emphasis in their marketing strategy it lies in this area:- hTTps://www.trakm8.com/articles/whats-next-for-home-delivery-software/
michaelmouse
15/11/2020
07:28
Another if this, if that post from trakm8Fan. In a nutshell I believe this to be his reasoning. He realises insurance is low margin but that shouldn't be a barrier to Trakm8 being successful. They just need to scale up this side of their business. Fixed costs will be shared over a greater number of devices shipped (he loves the word shipped). This will improve profitabilty and the pennies will start rolling in. The more shipped, the more the profitability. Basically he sees larger and larger volume, low margin work as the answer. But is it really the panacea? Is he not forgetting the variable of price which as supply increases, decreases, all other variables being constant? This I've previously mentioned but he still labours the same point, so let me break it down for him and hopefully this can be put to bed. Has he considered why this is low margin work? Perhaps because supply outstrips demand? Why so much supply? Because initially the margins are good but this being a low barriers to entry business rapidly encourages other players to enter the market which ends up eroding margins? Initially the decision to enter the market looks good but as margins become compromised because of all the extra supply not so good? The projections made on earlier margins becoming less and less feasible? Won't many of these suppliers be caught a similar boat to Trakm8 and be looking to upscale too? But with everybody trying to do the same won't all this pent up supply simply reduce prices further when tendering for orders as insurers can shop around for the best deal? In fact to the point where some tracking companies no longer even bother with insurance like in the case of Andre's friend?
dave2608
14/11/2020
21:47
trakm8Fan - I assumed you were one and the same.
andre
14/11/2020
18:39
Andre - I made the pennies comment not Mouse. I was hoping for an exchange where by you came back with some form of numbers representing what you think they pay for their SIMs and servers.
trakm8fan
14/11/2020
16:56
MM - utter nonsense. All you do is ask questions and extrapolate the answers you give yourself. Blondeamon and Jacko may work for Trak. They may not. But they know an awful lot about what happens in the company itself. Decide for yourself if what they post is knowable from outside. Me? I have a good friend that owns a tracking company. They don’t go near insurance tracking because it is worth ‘almost nothing’. As for your ‘pennies’; for everything comment, it doesn’t deserve a response. All IMHO
andre
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