Trackwise Designs Share Discussion Threads

[crues123] 25/11/2021 17:27

The Edison report had forecast revenue for 2021 at £9m and ebita at 0.9. In the company presentation on the interims in Sept 21 the management said they were on target to hit the forecasts. Arrival have announced problems but as has been reported elsewhere it seems their delays will be in car production not trucks and buses. That could be why the Trackwise management have seen no reason to make an announcement to revise budgets in 2022. Market cap at £46m beginning to look cheap if they get close to target this year. Even if there were some delays from Arrival the budget for 2022 is £22m. Even if revenue for 2022 ended up at £15m and an ebita of £2m instead of the forecast £4m that would still be substantial progress, and as I say there is no indication as yet from management that they need to revise the budgets. They also as we know have other areas in which they can win business during 2022, although I’d admit it would be nice to see a long list of new contracts patience I think is needed, but of course DYOR

[74tom] 25/11/2021 16:48

@amt, I should have checked the latest broker note before posting earlier.

After the September interims, Edison stated that management think 'the UK EV OEM' revenues for 2022 could be as high as £16m, but 'Our estimates already take a cautious approach, modelling £13m EV revenues in FY22.'

So up to 60% of TWD 2022 revenue appears to be at risk.

To be honest I'm surprised that they haven't had to update the market regarding the delays to Arrival's roll out as it's clearly material to their near term forecasts...

[pugugly] 25/11/2021 15:18

Tic Tac Agreed but what they need even more is a better technical sales force who really have great depth of knowledge of the technology. Its advatages both in terms of cost, perfomance, reliability and and the high level negotiating ability to get profitable contracts signed.

OK very easy to say but bloody diffult to find the right people to fulfill the role. Need to be well motivated and incentised with realistic bonus scheme. Would love to see them earn 6 figure bonuses - That is provided they brought in the business.

If sales not achieved a vulture will pick up the technology on the cheap - That is of course if it has the benefits that have been claimed for it.If not no sales force however skilled and motivated will ever be able to generate long term profitable contracts.

Look at AVON - Great potentail contracts but the protection did not appear to live up to the claims.

[tictac] 25/11/2021 14:51

They need to get a new FD.

He's always been poor.

[amt] 25/11/2021 14:44

Yes but wasn't Arrival revenue up to 5m so say they took 4m as a prudent view. Maybe now it's 2 or 3m it's maybe a ten percent reduction plus there are other orders perhaps in the pipeline.

[74tom] 25/11/2021 11:30

Just listening to the September investor presentation on investor meet company. At 33mins there is a question about how TWD are going to meet the £22m revenue forecast in 2022. Phillip answers that they have built in buffers / been prudent here.

The problem is the following statement in Arrival's Q3 results;

"Arrival previously provided long-term forecasts in connection with its merger with the CIIG special purpose acquisition company. Since then Arrival has invested more to further develop its platforms, and to secure components and batteries for production. As a result Arrival has revised its Microfactory rollout, and now expects significantly lower vehicle volumes and revenue in 2022. Future growth is dependent on the number of Microfactories the Company can deploy, which is a function of its access to capital. As a result Arrival’s previous long-term forecasts from the merger should no longer be relied upon."

What does 'significantly lower volume' mean for TWD's £22m 2022 forecast?

Note that when Phillip was answering this question on the call there was an audible sigh in the background, presumably this had to be from the CFO?! Not a good sign.

They certainly appear to be in a pickle. I do really like the CEO and hope for his sake he can find a more dynamic CFO when the incumbent steps down after next years AGM.

[petewy] 25/11/2021 09:51

Agreed amt. Disappointing, basically a good company.

[amt] 25/11/2021 09:35

Nearly all the gains gone.
Very disappointing.
Longterm potential still there with that Arival deal proving the technology and its scale.
Further orders on the way surely but patience required.

[74tom] 24/11/2021 14:50

Fitting that it's exactly a year to the day since one of the worst placings I've seen on AIM, at a 45% discount to the share price on 23/11/2020. At the time I said it was a sign of sheer incompetence and nothing I've seen since has changed my mind. They have by all accounts a very exciting product that has excellent IP protection, but they don't know how to promote the company to investors. What's worse, they had just £2.6m of net cash at 30/06, so by now they must be down to the wire. Given they raised at £2 last year when they had a hugely positive backdrop, what will they manage this time around?

[pugugly] 24/11/2021 12:20

1 year share price low now broken. Investors who bought on the SCSW could well be having their stop-losses triggered - which could now be creating a downward spiral.

No new contract news.

Could capital preservation, or saving what residual profit one has now be the order of the day?

[senn1] 17/11/2021 20:10

Arrival looks doomed

hxxps://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/17/why-ev-stock-arrival-is-plunging-17-today/

[jangaman] 17/11/2021 19:09

Me thinks they need a raise

[diesel] 09/11/2021 11:58

Didn’t take much to move this!

[strollingmolby] 02/11/2021 21:37

viking, does TWD supply Cummins, I can't locate any link?

In their results today Cummins revised their guidance downwards...

[viking24] 01/11/2021 16:21

Watch out for Cummins numbers tomorrow and their EV bus exposure!

[shieldbug] 31/10/2021 11:31

From the Investor Meet Company presentation last month - "Trackwise is currently manufacturing development parts for both EV and Aerospace eVTOL battery Applications"

A later slide states that they are "working with 30+ aerospace OEMs and suppliers including 4 eVTOLs, 2 business jets and 2 HAPS"

One company that fits aerospace eVTOL is Vertical Aerospace based in Bristol. However there appear to be plenty of others in development.

[fillipe] 07/10/2021 12:13

TWD, almost +12% so far today and on not that much vol.

f

[columbarius] 07/10/2021 09:30

Possibly with TWD but in general the understandable fear is not reflected in the market so I'm mostly sitting it out and very wary about what I'm buying. Let's face it, the economic outlook is genuinely terrible. High energy prices, wages declining in real terms, supply constraints, numerous bubbles in the market around the world, trade wars, stagflation.
Share prices are propped up by QE and governments are scared stiff of getting us off it. I don't for a moment believe inflation is transitory and they'll have to taper at some stage leading to a crash, but I don't know when.
They used to say when the US sneezes the world catches a cold. When China sneezes the world catches covid.

[adorling] 06/10/2021 17:32

You can smell fear in the market so it’s time to buy!

[pugugly] 06/10/2021 16:39

And looks as though market may have a lot longer to fall unless US fix their borrowing limits and the Chinese sort out the massive potential bad debts of their construction companies

Also, according to the FT these debts now starting to impact the top end of the new build flats market in London.

How far it will fall GOK but could be very nasty partially depending on how much investing has been done on margin and/or with borrowed funds.

12 week low of 180p sell now in - Only another 11p down to go to break the 1 year low.

[charlie9038] 06/10/2021 12:20

Whole market down

[mustau] 06/10/2021 12:18

Seems they’ve lost all contracts way the share price is behaving.

[charlie9038] 29/9/2021 16:04

thanks for sharing Pete

[petewy] 29/9/2021 15:48

hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/progress-in-both-divisions-during-h121/29982

Yet another storming support from Edison. Certainly a bumpy ride though