Tp Icap Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 09/3/2021 09:38

Posted before, but for reference:



In post #184, I adjusted the figures in this article to take account of the actual Rights Issue numbers, and it resulted in this:

Assuming a projected £350 million profit after tax in 2023 (broker forecast), that gives EPS of 44p, which at x2 cover equals 22p dividend (compared to 16.85p dividend pre-acquisition)

[davwal] 09/3/2021 09:35

Low digit growth forecast for this year, excluding any impact from Liquidnet. Hopefully the acquisition benefits kick in quite quickly. The one-off dividend reductionis a non event and as per earlier guidance. All told the results look solid in the context of events.
I’m certainly not selling and might buy more if the drop is sufficient.

[bluemango] 09/3/2021 09:34

Yes, that was flagged back in October I think.

And if they can drive earnings added by LiquidNet in line with broker forecasts, that could see a resumption at a higher level than before, even with 2x cover.

[jeffian] 09/3/2021 09:30

Re: the dividend, there is also this bit, though -

"For 2021 onwards, we will target a dividend cover of approximately 2x adjusted earnings. The new dividend policy reflects a balanced approach to capital allocation and is expected to allow TP ICAP to drive growth, while allowing dividends to increase in line with adjusted earnings."

[bluemango] 09/3/2021 09:22

I'm still puzzling over their wording here:

"This will take the full-year DPS to 6p, (rebased to take into account the bonus element of the rights issue completed in February 2021), an one-off 50% reduction to the prior year, in line with the statement made on 9 October regarding the proposed Liquidnet acquisition."

5.6p interim plus 2p final equals 7.6p full year (compared to 16.85p previously).

Whatever, shareholders who took up the Rights have no cause to complain, sitting on a nice capital bonus of Rights shares bought at 140p.

[creditcrunchies] 09/3/2021 09:13

Cutting the dividend always triggers the sell button but skimming through those result s they seemed solid enough to me. That is a huge cut though they're normally 11.2p (final divi) a share cut down to 2p. The interim divi of course was the 5.6p earlier in August paid in November. There's no point holding these for dividends that's for sure it would have to be capital growth.

[bluemango] 09/3/2021 08:39

Good to see acquisition of LiquidNet to be completed by end of the month.

[togglebrush] 09/3/2021 07:49

On First reading
'
Key financial and performance metrics
'
_________________________________2020________ 2019_____ Change
'
Total revenue (reported) (1)_____ GBP1,794m___ GBP1,833m___-2%
-'
Operating profit (EBIT):
- Reported_______________________ GBP178m______ GBP142m____ +25%

New adjusted divi 2p XD 8 Apr Paid 18 May 2021
'
Long report after rights issue, takeovers etc may take time to evaluate

[davwal] 08/3/2021 17:06

I’m wondering if the US is pushing the share price along, given there’s often a push later in the day. Yes, let’s hope the news is positive tomorrow.

[bluemango] 08/3/2021 16:54

Well that's it. All to be revealed tomorrow ...

[bluemango] 08/3/2021 08:43

Results out tomorrow.

Looks like market is anticipating some good news.

[davwal] 02/3/2021 17:17

Cracking day! Preliminary results are released next Tuesday, so I wonder if something’s leaked out..

[davwal] 02/3/2021 12:03

Certainly a good feel to how this is steadily progressing. Its been a while coming, but I am looking forward to the acquisition finally completing some time this month.

[rcturner2] 02/3/2021 10:31

Excellent momentum here and getting closer to the cross over the 200 day moving average line.

[elsa7878] 27/2/2021 09:49

Yes - thanks guess it is just an admin issue.

Volatility is what they need.

[bluemango] 26/2/2021 16:12

Ticker is unchanged - TCAP. (not ICAP as in your post #229)

Given the mayhem in stock markets in US and here today, TCAP's performance in mostly holding steady is remarkable.

[elsa7878] 26/2/2021 15:32

What's the new ticker? My accounts are showing 100% losses against my ICAP holdings...

[bluemango] 26/2/2021 10:52

Around a pound a share gain on the Rights, in just two weeks from payment. Can't be bad. But sticking with this long term. Bearing in mind where they could get to in one year; two year's time.

[davwal] 24/2/2021 10:52

I like the steady increase we are experiencing, and still have the actual completion to provide another little burst on the boosters. Ultimately this is a long-term hold and the prospects are high grade. Hopefully the company learned a great deal on merging businesses from their previous m&a.

[ltinvestor] 24/2/2021 10:41

Relatively unknown but an amazing acquisition should transform the prospects of this company and let’s not forget the dividend!

[davwal] 19/2/2021 17:18

A good point to end one week and start the next. Outlook very fair.

[rcturner2] 19/2/2021 17:12

If they are going to get anywhere near a 22p dividend this will rerate significantly higher from here.

[bluemango] 19/2/2021 17:04

Cracking finish to the week.

Some mega trades reported at the end there, including 945k at just over 224p.

[elsa7878] 19/2/2021 14:56

Thanks Blue. Watched this fall from north of £3 to £2 and wondered why. Know the voice / electronic shift but thought this was well overdone. Guess the market wants to see results and is sceptical. Well covered by analysts so bit of a valuation anomaly in this red hot market.

[bluemango] 19/2/2021 14:40

elsa7878, agreed that would be useful.

You've probably seen this, link was posted on this thread before the Rights:



They under-estimated the expanded share issue, but usefully gave us the broker target of £500m of EBIT and £350m profit after tax in FY 2023. I adjusted their expanded share issue figures in post #184 to give revised EPS of 44p, which at their newly-targeted x2 cover equals 22p dividend for 2023 (compared to 16.85p dividend pre-acquisition) and at their suggested PE ratio of 12x earnings, this gives a projected share price of 528p by 2023.

One problem with this analysis, pointed out by another poster (see #190), is the assumption that Liquidnet will be wholly additive to earnings. All we know about the broker targets is the comment in the link given above, that 'this is based on the combined Liquidnet and TP Icap revenue lines and getting to a post completion EBIT margin of 20%'. Does 'combined' suggest at least some allowance for a proportion of the business moved across platforms rather than additive? Don't know, but if the broker forecasts are at all competently calculated, you would hope so.