Tp Icap Share Discussion Threads

[thaiger] 04/2/2021 22:14

What is the Epic code for the right issue?

[kirmich] 03/2/2021 13:52

It can be a profitable business TP Icap is in : buy Viel in France. They own 70% of Tradition in Switzerland, one of the big 3 in the same sector alongside TP Icap. Instead of issuing shares, they buy them back. Instead of deleting the divi, they will probably up the dividend after a very good year.
Management itself owns 60% of Viel, talking of skin in the game.

I once owned tp icap, since i'm interested in the sector as it is a bit of the backbone of the financial system and i view them a bit as a casino-owner, taking a cut of every transaction. But comparing the 2 my decision was made very quickly, making Viel one of my biggest positions (only position in the financial sector) and selling off TP Icap at a small loss.

Not investment advice, just my own observation and conclusion.

[topvest] 03/2/2021 12:30

I thought they were in slightly different markets, albeit undoubtedly some overlap.

[rcturner2] 03/2/2021 11:58

spooky, we can but hope that is the case, but I suspect that sentiment is affected nonetheless.

[dhoult12] 02/2/2021 21:31

Issue I have with the deal and those figures is the assumption is the acquisition is additive to existing revenue and buisness.

Ultimately if a trade happens on a new platform, it doesn't happen over voice. And reverse is true.

As such you cannot simply forecast additional revenue from electronic brokerage and add it to the existing buisness. One will caniblise the other.

If also expect integration issues. If I was a broker on a high 6 figure package and was asked to input my trades/liquidity/client info into a computer system that does my job for me.... How about no? Or yes.. But don't do it.

That being said, the future is electronic and the margins in theory are way better just forsee a choppy few years with this to hopefully get there. If electronic rather than voice is the new aim. It hasn't actually been stated.

[topvest] 02/2/2021 20:30

I'm taking up the rights issue. Not a great deal in my view, but will go with it. Any more mishaps and I'm going to exit my small holding.

[bluemango] 02/2/2021 18:46

Yes, but assumed you were being more general. Thanks for clarifying.

[rcturner2] 02/2/2021 18:22

You are aware that there is a specific issue for this company that since Brexit they have to have a proper office in the EU and because of COVID they cannot actually move staff into the EU?

[bluemango] 02/2/2021 17:04

On Covid, given the vaccine rollout, I don't think the public & business community (let alone the stretched public finances) will tolerate restrictions stretching much further than late Spring. And arguably the downsides of Brexit have been exaggerated by a media generally hostile to it, with the medium term upsides correspondingly downplayed.

[rcturner2] 02/2/2021 16:58

I hope those figures do come to pass! However the are in a bit of a brexit/covid bind at the moment.

[bluemango] 02/2/2021 16:52

Just running through some figures using the estimates in the note mentioned in post #173, we have actual enlarged number of shares 566 million plus 225 million new shares giving 791 million total. Assuming a projected £350 million profit after tax in 2023, that gives EPS of 44p, which at x2 cover equals 22p dividend (compared to 16.85p dividend pre-acquisition) and at PE ratio of 12x earnings, a projected share price of 528p by 2023.

Loads of assumptions there obviously (in particular the projected 2023 profit) but on the face of it, this looks compelling. Comments?

Here's the note from which I've taken the estimated 2023 profit and also adjusted the enlarged share capital (they assumed back in November a new issue of 168 million new shares compared to actual 225 million):

[bluemango] 02/2/2021 15:51

Fwiw IC recommends accept.

[bluemango] 02/2/2021 15:32

Anyone got a view on the likely annual dividend per share once the dust settles and the dividend is re-instated?

Because that's really what it comes down to, for those here for income and deciding whether to take up the Rights. Broker has set deadline of 12th Feb to decide and have funds in place.

[w1lbur01] 02/2/2021 08:53

Brought a few today hopefully near the bottom but who knows really

[bench2] 20/1/2021 11:17

What a shame the board could not have paid for the acquisition with more debt and less equity , given today's interest rates . I think this will be a "show me" stock for some time , it is cheaply rated but may stay that way until the new business plan and acquisition beds down . Ex rights on 27 Jan , if the price gets hit further I will tuck some away .

[robsy2] 08/1/2021 12:56

I am not a holder so am not that familiar with the company but it has piqued my interest, so here I am.
The acquisition seems to be pitched as something they need to do to stay relevent and keep their show on the road, but I don't really understand how their biz works now let alone how they can face the future.
The directors didn't seem very impressive when I saw them presenting and I note that they have very little skin in the game
The acquisition means that there are sacrifices to be made, the divi will be cut, the rights issue itself is a kind of sacrifice,and there will be lots of complications I'm sure: big investment,integration, divi sacrifice, extra payments of 100m if it all goes well , earnings accretive sure but 'later' . Lots of Jam tmw...Jersey redomiciliation ,unimpressive sounding ceo , reg problems? and a very fast changing business environment. I think they probably wish they just owned the business they are buying rather than the one they already have. Not clear to me either.

[topvest] 07/1/2021 21:19

I'm not that enthusiastic about this deal to be honest. It looks an expensive acquisition funded by a discounted rights issue. Any other thoughts?

[spursspurs] 07/1/2021 20:57

Today, TP ICAP announces a fully underwritten rights issue, which is intended to raise proceeds of approximately GBP315 million (approximately US$427 million(1) ), to be used to fund the Acquisition (the "Rights Issue").

The Rights Issue is expected to result in the issue of 225,334,552 new ordinary shares (representing approximately 40.0 per cent. of the existing issued share capital of TP ICAP and 28.6 per cent. of the enlarged issued share capital immediately following completion of the Rights Issue) (the "New Ordinary Shares"). The Rights Issue will be on the following basis:

2 for 5 Rights Issue at 140.0 pence per New Ordinary Share.

[tenapen] 07/1/2021 20:38

Rights issue price of £1.40

:-/

[davwal] 23/11/2020 15:25

Interesting note. Like many, I’m on the fence whether to buy more now or wait, all though I think the acquisition will be beneficial in due course. Presumably the prospectus will be out soon.

[1blueletter] 23/11/2020 09:36

Can't seem to be able to post on this chat. This could be worth sharing
TCAP Buy note - Potential 150% + Upside -

[spursspurs] 11/11/2020 08:41

I think if you have a longer term view which these days is more than a week :) then good investment and even better at current price.

[its the oxman] 11/11/2020 08:38

Tempted, anyone holders expecting a bounce and see good value here. See deal will hit div.

[tenapen] 09/11/2020 16:26

Holding up well ! expected the worst this morning :-/